RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~145 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~183
ANALYSIS: Osborn failed to register an offensive snap during his rookie season. However, he accumulated 777 snaps (67.8% share) while making his entrance into the fantasy landscape in 2021. Osborne also garnered 82 targets (4.8 per game), 50 receptions (2.9 per game), 655 receiving yards (38.5 per game), and seven touchdowns.
He also accrued 855 air yards (51.2 per game/1.19 per snap), averaged 1.36 yards per route run, and attained a percentage of 17% in targets per route run. The transition from Mike Zimmer’s unwavering conservatism toward the promise of a more creative offensive strategy under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell has fueled a significant degree of optimism as Osborn enters his third season.
This will include a significant increase in the deployment of three wide receiver sets (11 personnel). That will represent a departure from Osborne’s first two seasons under former offensive coordinators Gary Kubiak and Klint Kubiak, who implemented strategic approaches that were palatable with Zimmer’s penchant for the ground game.
Osborn should become the beneficiary of more opportunities, even though he will remain below Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the Vikings’ depth chart.
Jefferson will function as Minnesota’s primary receiving option and could easily finish as this year’s WR1 in scoring. He is now embedded among the league’s elite wide receivers, while already stockpiling 292 targets (8.8 per game/27.4% share), 196 receptions (5.9 per game), 1,508 receiving yards (91.4 per game), and 1,764 air yards (106.9 per game) during his first two seasons. Jefferson’s exceptional numbers will be sustained as Minnesota evolves toward greater reliance on the pass.
Thielen played in 16 games from 2014-2018 but has missed 11 matchups during his last three seasons. That includes his four-game absence during 2021 (ankle) as he was restricted to 29 snaps during the Vikings’ final six contests.
Thielen had been leading all wide receivers in snap count percentage (95.2%) and was tied for the league lead with 10 touchdowns from Weeks 1-12. He should remain highly involved when the Vikings enter the red zone.
However, any absence by the 31-year-old during the season would vault Osborne into a substantial role as the team's WR2 behind Jefferson. The potential for that scenario to develop converges with the infusion of O’Connell’s offense and Osborne’s talent to present you with an enticing option in Round 16 of your drafts.
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