Justin Upton (OF, LAA) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 200

CURRENT ADP: ~221 overall

ANALYSIS:

Justin Upton only hit 12 home runs in an injury-plagued 2019, which turned out to be a brutal season for the veteran slugger as a result of turf toe and subsequent knee issues he dealt with. He managed only 256 plate appearances hitting just 12 HR to go with 40 RBI and a .215 batting average. Despite the disappointing season, signs do not suggest a sudden decline in his hitting skills at age 32. His 2019 HR rate and Zone Contact% was in line with prior seasons. In addition, Upton’s launch angle of 18.5 degrees was significantly higher than 2018 and his exit velocity on FB/LD of 93 MPH was on par with Nolan Arenado’s. While his strikeout rate did increase from 2018, his 2019 BABIP was .261 suggesting that his overall .215 AVG was worse than it should have been.

Prior to 2019, Upton had been able to avoid the injury bug, logging over 600 plate appearances every season since 2011. Assuming he has overcome the injuries that plagued him last season, a repeat of his 2018 numbers would be entirely feasible. That includes a .257 AVG, 30 HR, and 85 RBI, which he could certainly top in a much improved Angels’ lineup that now features Anthony Rendon. Of course, owners should not expect much in terms of steals from Upton going forward, but the power and counting stats should be good enough to warrant an ADP around 200.