RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~160 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~170
ANALYSIS:
Palmer finished third among LA’s wide receivers in targets (49/2.9 per game) and receptions (33/1.9 per game), while also accumulating 353 receiving yards (20.8 per game) and 495 air yards (29.1 per game).
He also completed his first season with a 38.3% snap share, as he operated from the slot on 57.5% of his 293 routes. His share was initially uninspiring from Weeks 1-13 (26.3%), while he averaged 2.1 targets, 1.5 receptions, and 16.8 yards per game. However, his snap share soared to 64.9% from Weeks 14-18. His per-game averages also rose in targets (5.6), receptions (3.3), and receiving yardage (37).
Palmer has an opportunity to confiscate a larger target share this season, even though Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will sustain their roles as Justin Herbert’s top-two receiving weapons. The 30-year-old Allen has finished between WR3-WR13 from 2017-2021 while garnering target shares between 25%-27.8% and averaging 9.6 targets/6.5 receptions/75.9 yards per game during that sequence. Allen’s prolonged history of high productivity will soon reach a conclusion. However, he should finish as the Chargers’ WR1 this season.
Williams had never finished higher than WR32 from 2017-2020, but he vaulted to WR12 in 2021. He also secured new career highs in targets (129/8.1 per game), receptions (76/4.8 per game), receptions of 40+ (9), receiving yards (1,146/71.6 per game), yards after catch (415), and first downs (51). Williams signed a three-year contract extension in March and will retain his integral role in a potent attack that will be guided by second-year coordinator Joe Lombardi.
Even with the projected target shares that will be commandeered by Allen and Williams, Palmer’s outlook remains favorable. He also appears primed to ascend beyond fourth-year receiver Jalen Guyton on the depth chart, which is a requirement for Palmer to secure consistent usage as the team’s unquestioned WR3.
Guyton finished third behind Allen and Williams in receiving yards (448/28 per game) and air yards (503/29.7 per game) last season and nearly matched Palmer’s totals in targets (48/3.0 per game) and receptions (31/1.9 per game). Palmer (10.1) and Guyton (10.5) also finished with comparable aDOTs (average depth of target).
Guyton led Palmer in YAC per reception (4.8/2.8). However, Guyton also finished the season with an 8.3% drop rate, while Palmer completed the year with a percentage of 2.1%. Palmer also captured a higher percentage in targets per route run (16.7%/11.3%), along with a higher average in yards per route run (1.20/1.06).
Palmer also delivered an impressive performance during the Chargers’ Week 2 preseason matchup with Dallas while collecting three of his four targets, assembling 75 yards, and generating a 41-yard touchdown. This adds to the enormous rationale for elevating Palmer atop your list of receivers to target when your drafts have entered Round 14.
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