RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~142 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~191
ANALYSIS: Despite being a third-round pick, Downs immediately showed he can play at the NFL level. That showcased itself in the numbers, stats, and film study. We’ll start by looking at the numbers and comparing him to another rookie receiver from last season, who we’ll leave unnamed, who went at WR34 compared to Downs at WR60.
| Player | Target Share | TPG | RPG | RYPG | YPT | YPR | YPTPA | YAC per Target | Route Win Rate | Win Rate vs Man | ADP |
| WR A | 17.6% | 5.9 | 4.0 | 49.6 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 1.43 | 3.6 | 51.3% | 45.2% | WR34 |
| Josh Downs | 17.9% | 5.8 | 4.0 | 45.4 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 1.34 | 3.8 | 52.7% | 47.2% | WR60 |
As you can see from the table above, Downs performed a little better in some areas and a little worse in others, but for the most part, these players were nearly identical. That unnamed rookie is Jayden Reed of the Green Bay Packers. Reed does provide some value on the ground for fantasy purposes, but it’s wild just how different their ADPs are when their numbers are so similar.
Reed did catch eight touchdowns compared to Downs’ two, which explains the difference in their half-PPR PPG average (11.4 to 7.2). However, considering their target share and targets per game, should we expect that difference in touchdowns to continue? Reed benefited from Christian Watson’s absence, and Downs was negatively affected by quarterback injuries.
Receiver Josh Downs is working towards an even bigger season in Year 2 with the Colts. @AngelaMoryanTV has the story:https://t.co/7og24KsFjz
— WISH-TV News (@WISHNews8) August 5, 2024
With Richardson and Downs entering their second seasons and Richardson being healthy, we should expect even better play from this team’s passing attack. Not to mention, the entire offense will be in the second season under Shane Steichen. There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on Downs, but another is his film study.
UPDATE: Despite suffering a high ankle sprain that will keep Downs out of the entire preseason, he's still a draft value as he's expected to be able to return by Week 1 or 2 of the regular season and be heavily involved in the Colts' offense.
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