RADIO
The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching. For the last few months, dynasty fantasy football gamers have been meticulously studying the incoming rookie class to gain any edge they can on their league mates.
While we should be anxiously awaiting our rookie drafts, we must also take time and analyze how veteran players are valued by the dynasty community. What’s a player’s current value? Are they overvalued or undervalued by the community? Should you be looking to buy or throw them out the door? That’s what we’re aiming to do with our Dynasty Price Check series.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Today, we will examine Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs’ dynasty value as well as what we can expect from him in 2025.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- 2025 NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
Josh Downs Background
The Indianapolis Colts selected Downs with the 79th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s had a nice start to his career and has surpassed 60 receptions and 700 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons. Downs even set career highs across the board in 2024 despite missing three games with an ankle injury.
Sadly, his play on the field hasn’t provided fantasy owners with ideal results. Downs has finished as the PPR WR35 and WR43 the last two years and hasn’t finished higher than WR32 in PPR points per game.
There have been several issues that have limited Downs' fantasy upside. A crowded receiving room and inconsistent quarterback play have been the main problems. While this all has rendered Downs to a WR3 role for fantasy football, it’s important to remember that this is a very talented player with potential for much more.
Touchdown Josh Downs to give Indy a 24-7 lead!
📺: #TENvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PAQDLqNOH2— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Josh Downs Analytical Profile
While Downs’ raw stats leave a lot to be desired, things look considerably better when we peak under the hood. Here are some of Downs’ advanced stats from the last two years, courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite:
2023
22 percent targets per route run (TPRR)
1.76 yards per route run (YPRR)
16.6 percent target share (TGT%)
17.5 percent first-read percentage (1READ%)
2024
30 percent TPRR
2.28 YPRR
23.9 percent TGT%
30 percent 1READ%
Downs did not post great scores in these metrics in 2023. This is understandable considering he was a third-round rookie. However, he made considerable jumps across the board in 2024, all of which show his improvement as a player.
Downs posted strong marks in each of the above metrics in 2024 and scores like these indicate a high likelihood of fantasy football success. They also show that there is more than meets the eye regarding Downs' stats last year.
So, while most casual fantasy gamers will overlook Downs due to his less-than-stellar numbers, he is a wise investment for gamers who prefer chasing upside. If/when the stars align, he could hit in a big way (particularly in PPR leagues) for dynasty managers.
What is Josh Downs Worth in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues?
Downs is currently ranked as the WR42 in RotoBaller's up-to-date dynasty rankings. This feels a little low but is understandable given his fantasy results. In the right situation, Downs has the talent and analytical profile to return, at the very least, a top-24 season.
If the Colts can sufficiently upgrade the quarterback position or Anthony Richardson makes a major Year 3 leap, then Downs could be in line for a career year.
WHAT A CATCH BY JOSH DOWNS.
📺: #INDvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/1WMCZDj8G3— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
General manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen have both spoken openly about upgrading the tight-end position this offseason. Many NFL Draft pundits have the Colts selecting a tight end with the 14th overall pick. This would add even more competition for Downs in an already crowded receiving room. While that’s not ideal, this could create a buying opportunity for the third-year receiver.
KeepTradeCut (KTC), which crowdsources data from dynasty players to create rankings, has him ranked as the WR42. This is down from his WR27 ranking on Nov. 27, 2024. KTC estimates his current value is equivalent to an early 2025 second-round rookie pick in Superflex and single-quarterback leagues.
Depending on how your rookie draft falls and how you value the incoming receiver class against Downs, this might be a move worth making.
However, if you are a Downs believer and want to acquire him via a trade, the more savvy move is to wait and see if the Colts do select a tight end in the NFL Draft. If that happens, Downs' value could fall further, at which point you may be able to acquire him even cheaper than the above cost.
While that’s the preferred move, it’s still worth touching base with the Downs manager in your league on the off chance they're looking to move him. Some dynasty gamers value situations more than talent, and they might be looking to move him as a result. This is one of the biggest mistakes dynasty managers make as a player’s situation can quickly change.
Take advantage of this flaw in their process and look for ways to get Downs on your roster. He’s a great option if you’re thin at receiver and trying to take a cheap shot on a player with upside.
Josh Downs 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
While there are many questions surrounding Downs, his talent is undeniable. However, the reality is his situation is not ideal and may not translate to big-time fantasy success in 2025.
The Colts have a strong offensive coach in Shane Steichen, but there is a ton of target competition. Michael Pittman Jr. remains one of the more underrated receivers in the league. Alec Pierce is coming off a career year. 2024 second-round pick Adonai Mitchell remains in the background and now there is talk they will spend an early round pick on a tight end.
That is a lot of target competition for an offense that will likely be led by Anthony Richardson and his career 50.6 percent completion percentage. That leads us to the elephant in the room regarding Downs. Richardson just hasn’t been a good quarterback 17 games into his career. Unless he makes major strides as a passer, we may not see the best version of Downs in 2025.
While the target competition is strong, Downs has proved he can draw targets at a high rate even in this crowded receiver room. The issue has been the quality and quantity of said targets. With better quarterback play and in the right situation, Downs can smash his current RotoBaller WR45 ranking.
He is a sneaky third-year breakout candidate and is worth a pick at his current Underdog ADP of 87.4 overall. Downs is a great mid-round target as he has the kind of upside that fits nicely if you go with a robust running back strategy early in your draft.
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