Josh Bell To Nationals - Fantasy Impact

The Washington Nationals were one of the bigger disappointments in baseball last season. Robbed of their World Series celebration with their fans, the Nats limped to a 26-34 record in the pandemic-shortened season, good for last in the NL East.

The Nationals addressed one of their biggest weaknesses, however, by swinging a Christmas Eve trade for one of fantasy baseball's biggest busts in 2020, Josh Bell. The switch-hitting first baseman will fill an immediate need at the cold-corner in Washington as Asdrubal Cabrera left in free agency and Ryan Zimmerman's return to the club is still in question.

Will a change of scenery help Bell regain the form that made him a top prospect in Pittsburgh?

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A Down Year Across the Board

Bell couldn't back up his breakout 2019 campaign, disappointing fantasy managers that used a top-100 pick on the Pirates' first baseman. Bell looked off all season, posting career-worst numbers in on-base percentage (.305), slugging percentage (.364), K-rate (26.5%), and wRC+ (78). The result for fantasy? Just eight HR, 22 R, 22 RBI, and a .226 batting average; good for 41st among first-base eligible players in 5x5 scoring.

A change of address could help Bell regain his All-Star form of 2019. First of all, he won't be the only threat in the lineup as Juan Soto and Trea Turner alone are exponentially better than any teammate of Bell's in Pittsburgh. A better supporting cast will produce more RBI and run opportunities for one of the most dependable players in the league. Bell averaged 150 games played from 2017-19 and played 57 of 60 games last year.

This is good news because Bell won't have to fully regain his torrid-2019 pace to be a contributor in fantasy. If he simply bounces back to even his pre-breakout form, he should accumulate plenty of RBI batting behind Soto and Turner.

At his best, Bell is a legitimate stud. A set-it-and-forget-it first baseman in fantasy.

He had a breakout 2019 campaign that saw him bat .277 with 37 homers, 94 runs, and 116 RBI. Nationals fans and fantasy managers would sign up for that stat line in a heartbeat.

Putting his last two years next to each other, it's tempting to assume he's the player from 2019 as the sample size is nearly triple.

Given this data, Bell looks like a steal at his current average draft position of 177th overall. It's tempting to just write off 2020 as a weird year with not enough games to draw any specific conclusions about a player.

The danger in that line of thinking is most of Bell's 2019 production came in an equally small sample.

Bell started the 2019 season as a man possessed. He batted a sturdy .286 in March/April before posting a month for the ages. Bell blasted 12 homers and had 31 RBI in May of 2019 while being named the NL Player of the Month. Bell was named to his first All-Star team and seemed to validate everyone that pegged him as a breakout candidate in fantasy.

After May, however, his production fell off.

After May, Bell was the player he always was, a productive, stable first baseman, but not someone who was a must-start fantasy player.

So which Bell should we expect to see in DC?

The answer likely lies closer to the 2019 version than 2020.

Bell's primary issue in 2020 was too many grounders as his launch angle plummeted to a career-low 5.9 degrees. This led to a 55-percent ground ball rate which isn't going to cut it for a player with Bell's lack of speed.

His other batted-ball data from last season wasn't awful. His average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH was well above MLB average as was his 8.6 percent barrel rate.

Bell also struck out too much in 2020, something that should correct itself with a larger sample. Bell has had elite plate-discipline dating back to the minor leagues where he never had a full-season K-rate above 18 percent. Last season, however, Bell had a career-worst 26.5 percent K-rate and a 9.9-percent walk rate, the first time in his career his walk rate was under 10-percent.

Given the small sample from 2020, I'm more inclined to lean on Bell's 2016-19 data. He's never been a player with a strikeout issue and he only had 140 batted-balls last season.

Conclusion

All told, this was a solid trade for the fantasy value all around. Bell gets a fresh start in a better lineup which should improve his stock even if he only returns to the player he was pre-breakout. His average draft position shouldn't climb back into the top-100 like it did last season, but 177th overall is too low. Fantasy managers can start looking for Bell near pick 150 overall to fill their first base slot.

On the other side of the trade, Colin Moran and Ke'Bryan Hayes now both have starting jobs at the corner infield spots in Pittsburgh. Moran isn't a top-priority in fantasy, but he played well enough last season Pittsburgh is willing to roll with him at first. That clears up third base for Hayes who was one of the top prospects in the Pittsburgh system. His stock in dynasty leagues is up as he won't be splitting time at third with Moran.

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