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BALLER MOVE: Sell Jose Berrios
ANALYSIS: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers throughout the opening month of the season. The 29-year-old has tossed 43 ⅔ innings, resulting in a 4-2 record, a stellar 1.44 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 31 punchouts. While this surface-level production is outstanding, looking a bit deeper suggests he is due for some massive regression.
Berrios sports a 4.88 xERA and .274 xBA which are all significantly below average. This is reflected in his high 50.4 % hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph average exit velocity. The right-handed pitcher also has low strikeout numbers, meaning that if he cannot miss bats, these metrics will become much more apparent and start to sink his ratios.
I would suggest selling high on Berrios. If you can find a manager in your league who sees the surface-level production and is willing to give you an above-average starter who has disappointed or a strong bat I would take that deal.
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