Jonathan Villar: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Every fantasy manager has a weakness for a particular player or even player type. Perhaps you've rostered Nomar Mazara for the last five years because you just know that breakout is coming. Maybe you always spend a draft pick on Eduardo Rodriguez because this is the year he finally pitches up to his peripherals. You might overdraft unproven prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Adley Rutschman and be disappointed with their big league numbers.

This author has a weakness for Jonathan Villar. Villar was cut by the lowly Chicago Cubs after slashing .218/.271/.321 with two homers and six steals across 170 PAs this season after a solid 2021 that saw him hit .249/.322/.416 with 18 homers and 14 steals. The production wasn't there, but the 31-year-old isn't that old and may have been banking on more consistent playing time than the Cubs gave him.

The Angels picked up Villar and figure to use him every day, going so far as to bat him leadoff (in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani) in his first game with the club. Unfortunately, the rest of his peripherals reveal some troubling signs that suggest Villar's lack of production in Chicago was no fluke. His change of scenery provides a reason for optimism, but there's a lot to overcome.

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Jonathan Villar's Whifftastic Season

Villar has always struck out too often and his 25.9 K% this season is right in line with his career norms. However, the metrics behind that K% are worrisome. His current 15.2 SwStr% would be a career-worst, and all of the additional swings and misses are coming on pitches in the zone with a career-worst 76.9 Z-Contact%. Villar's career Z-Contact% is 80.6, foreshadowing an increase in his K% unless something changes.

If there's any good news here, it's that Villar still has a decent eye with a 7.1 BB% and 33.4% chase rate. Walks are an opportunity to run, and Villar typically shows just enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest.

Jonathan Villar's Positive BABIP Regression?

Villar's .286 BABIP may not seem that low, but his career rate of .334 suggests that a lot more hits could start falling in. Villar hits very few flies with a 23.9 FB% this year and a 25.8% mark over his career, and his current 3.7 IFFB% would be a career-best. Unfortunately, he gives most of that up with a LD% that's consistently below league-average (18.6% this year, 19.9% career). As such, outstanding work on ground balls is how Villar keeps his BABIP up.

Villar has a lifetime BABIP of .267 on ground balls but is only hitting .200 on them so far this year. It isn't a contact quality issue as Villar's 88.8 mph average exit velocity on the ground is substantially better than last year's mark of 84.7. The shift isn't the problem either as Villar is only pulling 40% of his grounders. With Villar's legs, you'd think that positive regression would be a given.

Sadly, Villar's legs might be the root cause of the issue. He hasn't been a true speed merchant for a few years now, but last year's Statcast Sprint Speed of 27.3 ft./sec was still a little higher than average. This year, his Sprint Speed is down to 26.6 ft./sec. Villar is a perfect six-for-six on SB attempts and would be on pace for a 20-steal season over a full campaign, but it appears that he may no longer have the foot speed to beat out hits once taken for granted.

Jonathan Villar's Disappearing Pop

Villar has a career HR/FB of 16.1% and bested that mark with an 18.4% last season, allowing him to consistently crack double-digit homers despite his general aversion to fly balls. This season, his HR/FB is down to 7.4% as his average airborne exit velocity is down a full tick from last year (93.2 vs. 92.1 mph) while his rate of Brls/BBE fell off a cliff from 7.4% to 2.6%. His 109.5 mph max exit velocity isn't that bad, but there hasn't been much oomph in his bat.

The Verdict on Jonathan Villar

Baseball Savant's xStats suggest that Villar will be better moving forward but probably not by enough to justify fantasy interest. His xBA is .226 and his Statcast Sprint Speed isn't high enough to qualify for a mental adjustment. Similarly, his xSLG of .324 is only marginally better than his actual mark of .321. He doesn't hit many flies, lacks elite raw power, appears to be losing his speed, and has a swing-and-miss problem.

Still, he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS in most formats and appears to have an important role in an Angels lineup that still boasts two of the most dynamic players in today's game. He knows how to steal a base and is willing to run without elite wheels, and all of the negative peripherals above carry a small sample-size caveat. Maybe a change of scenery and an everyday role are just what he needs to get back on track.

Villar is only rostered in 12% of Yahoo! leagues, so you can probably pick him up for free if you have a bench spot available. You can plug him in at a variety of different positions and it's tough to find power-speed threats on waivers this late in the season. This author is going to call him a Champ, but bear in mind the irrational bias discussed in the intro.

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