RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~169 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~192
ANALYSIS: It’s surprising that Jonathan Mingo’s average draft position (ADP) has remained so low, considering the potential he brings to Carolina's offense. Are the players the Panthers signed such as Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and Hayden Hurst actually good enough to prevent Mingo from having a productive year?
Although Thielen ranked 28th among receivers last season with 103 targets, he only managed to accumulate 716 yards, which was 45th. Among the 53 receivers with at least 75 targets, Thielen received the ninth-worst receiving grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF). He had the fourth-lowest yards after catch (YAC) and the second-worst average yards per route run (YPRR). To put it bluntly, Thielen's performance has declined.
Chark falls into a similar category. However, there are legitimate doubts about whether he was ever truly good. He had an impressive season in 2019, finishing with 118 targets, 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, and eight touchdowns in 15 games. In his other 39 games, he accumulated just 199 targets, 104 receptions, 1,536 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
Last season, Chark signed a one-year deal with the Lions and appeared in 11 games. He finished with 52 targets, 30 receptions, 502 yards, and three touchdowns. He had an average of 1.55 YPRR, which is consistent with his three-year average of 1.50 YPRR. However, his Reception Perception from last season paints a negative picture.
These two players, Thielen and Chark, are the only ones standing in Mingo's path to becoming the Panthers' top receiver. With the lack of competition for targets, it's difficult to understand why drafters aren't more excited about his potential for the 2023 season.
Mingo ranked 17th in broken and missed tackles per reception in 2022. He also ranked eighth in yards after contact per reception, with an average of 7.5 yards. While Ole Miss had Mingo in the slot for only 39% of his snaps, that seems to be his ideal position in the NFL.
His agility and size could pose significant problems for defenses. One of his greatest strengths is his ability to break tackles and gain YAC. If he's given regular opportunities to utilize these skills, Mingo has the potential to become a legitimate top-30 receiver in the second half of the season.
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