Jon Anderson's SP Tiered Rankings and Projections, Part 1

Here we go, starting pitcher tiers! This is one of the most challenging exercises of the offseason, but I'm happy to bring you the results of my work here!

From December through January, I went through each team in the league and looked at all of their fantasy-relevant players one by one. This gave me a pretty good feel for the SP position. My SP ranks look quite a bit different than other people, and they really don't line up very closely with the ADP right now. This either means that I'm a genius or a dolt. Only time will tell.

For now, here are my top-37 starting pitchers for 2022, segmented into tiers. I included their current ATC projection along with their name and rank, but keep in mind that I did not rank based on the projections at all, and that will show here.

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Tier One - The Super Studs

It seems silly to rank Burnes over Cole here after you see the innings projections. My take is that I'm not going to guess about innings pitched until I'm absolutely forced to. I don't see any reason that Burnes can't throw 180 innings this year, and to me that's a full season pitched. I'm not the type to adjust my rankings over a dozen innings, so Burnes is my guy.

By the numbers, he was just flat-out better than Cole last year. In fact, Cole was pretty far below elite after the stick substance business (4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP after the crackdown). Burnes put up a 2.43 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with one of the most ridiculous trios of strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed I've ever seen. You can have the extra 20 innings, I want Burnes.

Tier Two - The Studs

This is the biggest second-tier I've had in several years, I think. Of course, Jacob deGrom would be my #1 overall pitcher without the arm concerns, but for now, I have him on the back end of this tier just because of how much more likely he is to miss all kinds of times than the rest of the group.

I am captaining the Aaron Nola ship this year, and I'm not being shy about it. He is going to pitch like an ace this year, take it to the bank. The safe name here is Woodruff, who has been the picture of consistency for the last three seasons. I want to be lower than the field on Wheeler since that 2021 season came as a pretty big surprise, and I'll let someone else buy high there.

My Favorite: Woodruff

My Fade: Wheeler

ADP Considered Upside: Nola

Tier Three - The Safe SP2's

All of these guys flirted with Tier Two, but I had to draw the line somewhere. I think there is just a bit lower of a ceiling with all of these names, and a bit more inherent risk as well.

If I can help it, I really like to draft very high strikeout rates for my first three or four starters, and you just don't really get that with Alcantara, Montas, or Urias. They certainly are all excellent pitchers, but I'd much rather get into Tier Two than have one of them as my SP1 or SP2.

I don't think I'll have much Peralta for the same reason as Wheeler, I just don't think it's a great practice to buy high on the guy that pitched way above his expectation the previous year. That isn't to say I don't think he has a very good chance to be great again this year, but I'm just not buying in at his current price.

My Favorite: Giolito

My Fade: Peralta

ADP Considered Upside: Montas

Tier Four - Upside and Downside

This is where we realize that the position is actually pretty deep. I think all of these names could return SP1 level numbers this year, and we've ranked 22 pitchers already.

This is a large tier of pitchers, and they all have their unique positives and negatives.

We have the young guns who raise questions about repeatability and workloads (McClanahan, Webb, Rogers, Cease). We have the old guys that scare you a bit given the long careers they've put on their arms already (Lynn, Darvish, Sale), you have the injury risk in Chris Sale, and then the "I've been jerked around by these two guys for five years now I'm done with it" duo in Castillo and Ray.

I certainly don't want to start my pitching staff in this tier, but I'd be perfectly happy with grabbing my SP3 here.

My Favorite: Darvish

My Fade: Ray

ADP Considered Upside: McClanahan

Tier Five - Innings Questions

This is pretty similar to Tier Four, but the workload questions are much louder in these cases. Kershaw has had trouble staying on the field for quite awhile now, and he's turning 34 this spring. Ohtani's maximum possible innings pitched is probably like 160, so you have basically no chance at him being a true SP1 for you, and then you would have to think the Rays will be quite careful with Baz as well given his youth and lack of experience thus far.

That said, these three guys were all elite on the hill last year when pitching, and there's really something to be said for that.

My Favorite: Kershaw

My Fade: Ohtani

ADP Considered Upside: Kershaw

Tier Six - Mixed Bag

I think you have some potential aces here too in McCullers, Gausman, Manoah, Gilbert, Gallen, and Sandoval. There are upside arms all over the draft this year, but there are also very few sure-things when you're talking about starting pitchers.

This is a nice tier here, with some very cheap prices. For safety but a lack of upside - the names are Musgrove, Fried, Berrios, and Morton.

My Favorite: Pablo Lopez

My Fade: Kevin Gausman

ADP Considered Upside: Patrick Sandoval

We'll be back soon to lay down the rest of my starting pitcher rankings, thanks for checking out Part One!

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