Jon Anderson's First Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

It is very important to have a feel for how each position is shaking out from a high level before you start a draft. Having positional rankings is great, but having tiered positional fantasy baseball rankings is even better.

Throughout February, we will be going over each MLB position and showing you our rankings tiered off by how players are grouping together projection-wise.

I've already covered third base and second base. Today we're on first base, so let's get to it!

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Overview

For years, it seemed like a disproportionate number of the league's best hitters played first base. The "good old days" of baseball for me, as a 31-year-old, was right around the 2010 season. That year, Jose Bautista led the league with 54 homers. He didn't play first base, but the next five names on the homer leaderboard were first basemen. Albert Pujols, Paul Konerko, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, David Ortiz, Ryan Howard - oh my! The position was loaded with sluggers up and down the ranks. For fantasy purposes, you could wait until the seventh or eighth round and still pick a first baseman that you could feel confident in belting 30 bombs and driving in 100.

Times have changed, and the first base position has really thinned out (this is literally true too, we don't see nearly as many Prince Fielder builds on the field anymore). Let's take a look at 2022.

Tier One - The Elite

You won't find many steals at the first base position, which is why these two take the crowns despite coming in low in stolen base projection. They separate themselves by being dominant in everything else. Batting average is becoming harder and harder to find, and these two give you that production.

Tier Two - Just Shy of Elite

These three differ a bit in how they project. Goldschmidt comes up shy of elite territory in homers and RBI, but adds a higher batting average and the potential to steal 10 bases. Alonso and Olson make their money with the long ball, and should be once again near the league leaders in that category. They both also made huge strides in strikeout rate last season, giving them a much more confident batting average projection this year and solidifying them as tier two options at first base.

Tier Three - Jose

I couldn't quite justify putting Abreu in tier two, but he definitely is a step above the guy below him here, so I've slotted him all alone in tier three. He has no steals upside, is short of elite in homers, and the batting average is becoming less and less stable with age.

Tier Four - The Specialists Take Over

Cronenworth gives you some batting average and steals without the power, and the rest of the group gives you power and RBI without much in terms of batting average or steals. From this on, you are sacrificing in at least two categories. I really want to try to get one of the guys in the top three tiers, and I would be fine with avoiding this tier altogether (although Hoskins is a pretty nice buy in OBP leagues).

Tier Five - The Risk Begins

Not only are you sacrificing big in a couple of categories with all of these names, the downside is also substantial. Age is a real problem for Cron, Votto, and Rizzo - and LeMahieu didn't do much at all well in 2021, casting doubt on his future as a fantasy contributor.

Tier Six - Edge of the Cliff

These two have plenty of upside, but gaping holes in their game. Lowe's ceiling is seemingly a "good" player, and the floor is pretty low as well as you can tell by the projection. Dalbec is a bit different, as his ceiling is massive (40+ homers well within reach), but his floor is one of the lowest in the whole game with his huge strikeout rate.

Tier Seven - The Cliff

You can see the wild range of ADP in this tier, which should show you that I'm not a big Ty France guy. Certainly, France and Kirilloff are well ahead of Sano, but I wanted to open up the tiers quite a bit here as we get towards the bottom. These are not guys you want to depend on, but they are all guys who should be rostered in most league types. The upside names are Kirilloff and Belt, I'm personally pretty interested in those two names here, but I don't really care for any of the rest.

Tier Eight - Playing Time In Question

Both of these names are probably going to find themselves in at least a partial platoon, which makes them tough to add for fantasy purposes. However, they are both capable hitters, so they are useful in daily changes leagues. I really like Wade as he really smashed right-handed pitching last year, and he adds some steals to your team very late. I'll have a lot of him in deep leagues this year.

Tier Unknown - Need More Information

Muncy: The question is health. At this point, we don't really have any idea of how his elbow is doing. He could be in the Opening Day lineup, or he could miss several months if not the whole year if surgery is required. If he was healthy: tier two.

Voit: We have to see what the Yankees do in the rest of the free agency period after the lockout ends (fingers crossed). If they do not sign another first baseman, Voit would project for 550+ PAs and quite a few homers. If he's the main first baseman on the roster: tier four.

Torkelson: We have seen very little of him as a professional baseball player, but he is the game's top prospect and looked quite stunning in his minor league time last year. The question is if/when he joins the Tigers this year. If he's on the team Opening Day: tier four.

My First Base Strategy

I really, really want to get steals with my first and/or second pick, so I don't think I'll end up with much Vladdy or Freeman this year. That makes me really want to dip my toes into tier two in almost every draft. I love what Alonso and Olson did last year with the raw power and improvements in striking out, so one of those names is a big priority for me.

I'll probably mostly pass on tier three unless I'm in an OBP league where I'll be looking at Hoskins. I also think Cronenworth's floor and ceiling justify a pick, but I'd be drafting him as a second baseman anyways.

After that, I'd wait a while, and then I'll be happy to get a high-upside power bat late like a Dalbec or a Kirilloff. This is a great position for piling on the homers late in the draft. Thanks for reading, we'll be back soon covering and tiering off more positions!

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