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Jon Anderson's Early First Base Tiers & Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Vinnie Pasquantino fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB prospects waiver wire pickups

Jon Anderson gives his early first base rankings for 2023 fantasy baseball. Who should you draft high and whose value has gone lower than expected?

I started the fantasy baseball rankings and tiers series very early this year, but it's January - what else do we have to do?

The Catchers post kicked off the series, you can read that here. Today, we'll cover the first base position. I use the projection system I designed to help me in this, but I make plenty of manual adjustments when considering things like upside, age, and injury risk.

The first base position is in pretty healthy shape this year, with a deep Tier 1, and then at least three more guys after Tier 1 that you would be fine with. Let's break it down.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Tier 1 - Five Studs

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Freddie Freeman LAD 1 1 627 101 21 90 11 .308
Matt Olson ATL 2 1 672 98 37 114 3 .268
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 3 1 618 91 33 96 6 .282
Pete Alonso NYM 4 1 668 88 38 102 5 .264
Paul Goldschmidt STL 5 1 619 90 27 95 10 .275

Maybe some people would separate this into two tiers, but I just can't bring myself to leave Alonso away from these guys. You can see that I'm a little bit down on Goldschmidt, and that has to do with the fact that his underlying numbers actually took a dip last year as he gets well into his thirties. But look, any one of these guys could easily take the crown as the top first baseman in 2023. They all project close, but the ADP won't be nearly as close - which I think will mean I have a lot of Alonso on my teams this year as the cheapest Tier 1 guy.

 

Tier 2 - The Future?

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Rhys Hoskins PHI 6 2 614 81 28 86 5 .244
Vinnie Pasquantino KC 7 2 575 72 23 84 4 .284
Nathaniel Lowe TEX 8 2 653 78 23 83 6 .267

Hoskins is not a young guy anymore, but he deserves a Tier 2 spot here. I would probably actually draft Vinnie P. over him, but the uncertainty with his limited time in the Majors knocked him down a spot for me. He certainly has the skills, immediately showing elite advanced metrics (contact rate, hard-hit rate, etc.).

Nathaniel Lowe could also probably be pushed down a tier, but he's a really mature hitter with a great floor here - and I'm really high on this Rangers lineup. He will have a year cleaning up behind Semien, Garcia, and Seager - so I think this RBI projection is too low. His ceiling is not comparable to the guys ahead of him here, but he sneaks in here nonetheless.

 

Tier 3 - Steady

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Jose Abreu HOU 9 3 623 79 20 87 1 .280
Anthony Rizzo NYY 10 3 562 76 29 81 7 .251
Ryan Mountcastle BAL 11 3 618 74 30 82 1 .254
Jose Miranda MIN 12 3 590 75 16 72 2 .254
Andrew Vaughn CWS 13 3 604 63 19 62 1 .249

This would be the final tier I'm somewhat comfortable with. There's a lack of game-breaking upside here, but these five names should all put up very useful stat lines in 2023. I really like the ballparks for Abreu and Rizzo, and the talent is tantalizing with Mountcastle, Miranda, and Vaughn. I think I will end up being higher than the field on almost all of these names, making it a pretty great tier to grab a corner infielder from.

 

Tier 4 - Getting Risky

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Christian Walker ARI 14 4 625 72 26 83 2 .243
Max Muncy LAD 15 4 547 76 25 88 2 .238
Seth Brown OAK 16 4 577 73 30 63 13 .239
Rowdy Tellez MIL 17 4 536 68 27 72 1 .251
Luis Arraez MIN 18 4 640 85 10 58 5 .300
C.J. Cron COL 19 4 581 71 27 82 1 .254
Miguel Vargas LAD 20 4 450 68 20 64 8 .268
Ty France SEA 21 4 623 74 18 63 0 .276
Josh Bell CLE 22 4 581 69 20 80 0 .255

At this point, we're really surrendering something with the pick. You have your "empty power" guys in Walker, Tellez, and Cron. You have your "batting average specialists" in Arraez and France, and then you have your "this could go terribly" with Brown, Cron, Vargas, and Bell.

We shouldn't be falling in love with any of these names, as there are so many paths to relative failure with these names. The upshot is that by this time in the draft, you know what your team needs - and this tier can answer almost all those needs. Need some dingers? Walker and Brown are cheap! Need a batting average boost - grab Arraez. Looking for a big-time upside? Roll the dice on Vargas! It's a fun tier, but not one you want to be reliant on for your 1B needs.

 

Tier 5 - Outside Shot

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Matt Mervis CHC 23 5 457 45 10 44 3 .227
Triston Casas BOS 24 5 493 48 7 47 4 .220
Alex Kirilloff MIN 25 5 373 46 12 41 1 .265
Joey Meneses WSH 26 5 633 72 25 76 1 .280
Joey Votto CIN 27 5 555 66 23 69 1 .245
Josh Naylor CLE 28 5 520 58 18 58 7 .244
Brandon Drury LAA 29 5 466 55 18 55 1 .243

A mixture here of young guys with unclear ability and playing time (Mervis, Casas, Kiriloff) and older players with shaky outlooks right now (Meneses, Votto, Naylor, Drury). My favorite of the bunch was definitely Naylor because of the Josh Bell signing, but now his playing time is a little bit less clear. He should have the chance to start every day against righties, but if he doesn't perform out of the gate, he could lose that. Drury was a huge over-performer in Cincinnati last year, so we project him to get back to a pretty pedestrian stat line with the Angels.

I will probably sit it out on Mervis/Casas/Kiriloff this year, as there is almost certain to be someone in every draft that wants to take a shot at the young guy. Mervis and Casas don't even have clear starting jobs right now, and Kiriloff continues to battle wrist issues that are pretty scary in redraft leagues.

By this time, hopefully, we're just drafting bench bats with upside, and most of these guys can provide that.

 

Tier 6 - The Boring Vets

Player Team Rank Tier PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Spencer Torkelson DET 30 6 530 56 16 52 2 .221
Trey Mancini HOU 31 6 618 73 20 71 0 .245
Jake Cronenworth SD 32 6 629 70 15 77 4 .226
D.J. LeMahieu NYY 33 6 493 55 8 54 5 .255
Garrett Cooper MIA 34 6 572 60 15 63 1 .255
Harold Ramirez TB 35 6 437 47 11 52 4 .279
Luke Voit WSH 36 6 503 61 22 59 1 .240
Carlos Santana PIT 37 6 480 56 16 62 1 .246
Ji-Man Choi PIT 38 6 467 54 14 62 0 .237

I don't think any of these guys will be drafted in standard leagues, but I figured we'd get pretty deep here. The former first-overall pick Torkelson looked just awful last year, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him make a big step forward in 2023 given his raw talent.

After that, I don't think there's anybody here that can really be a "huge breakout" performer in 2023, but you could see any of these guys putting up "useful" stat lines. The Pirates duo is a bit interesting as they are both set up well to benefit from the shift ban and get more PAs in Pittsburgh. The downside is that these guys are veteran players that have really never flashed big fantasy upside, so it's really tough to imagine them excelling at this point - especially in one of the league's worst lineups.

Anyways, there is merit to this tier in super deep leagues, and again you have your category specialists here to take advantage of if you're trying to catch up in something late.

That's the first base position! Let me know what I missed and what you disagree with! We'll be back soon with my second base rankings and tiers.



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