X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Here Comes the Breakout - Joe Mixon

Bengals RB Joe Mixon was a bust last season for many fantasy football owners, especially in dynasty leagues. Kyle Richardson gives his argument for a Mixon breakout and explains what held him back.

One of the most debated players this off-season has been Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon. Selected in the second round of the 2017 draft, he was widely considered one of, if not the best, running backs in the draft last season. Fantasy owners bought into the running back as well, helping boost his ADP to 3.9 in rookie drafts.

Unfortunately, owners were disappointed in his performance during year one. Have they already given up hope in Mixon though?

There are only two schools of thought when it comes to Mixon. Either you believe he has the talent to become one of the best running backs in the league, or you think he is overrated and at best, a two-down back with little upside. Last season, Mixon was my RB1 in the draft, and I am still standing by that. So, my job for the next few minutes is to convince you that Mixon should be on your team when Week 1 kicks off this season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Offensive Line Upgrades

I am going to start here because this was the single biggest thing the Bengals needed to work on this off-season, and they did just that. Before talking about the upgrades though, it’s important to point out why the offensive line was so bad last season. It goes deeper than having only 1,366 rushing yards in 2017, the second-lowest total in the league.

The offensive line lost two key members prior to the 2017 season with the departure of Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth. It showed over the course of the season as well because the team was not prepared to move forward without them. The Bengals ended up using 21 different combinations on the offensive line last season, tied for the fifth most in the league. They also allowed 158 pressures last season as well.

You can imagine that switching things up that much would only cause issues. The Bengals started 10 different lineman last season and each one gave up at least one sack. In fact, the line was pretty good about allowing defenders into the backfield on a constant basis. The Bengals averaged 0.93 yards before contact on outside zone runs last season. Considering one of Mixons strengths is his ability to turn the corner and move the ball upfield quickly, getting stuck in the backfield on those plays severally limits his ability to make big plays. In his final season at Oklahoma, Mixon was the Big 12 leader in percentage of carries that went 15-plus yards at 11.9 percent.

The offensive line didn’t fare much better across the board on other runs either in terms of yards before contact.

Avg Left Center Right
1.31 1.19 1.28 1.41

The Bengals average of 1.31 yards before contact was better than only nine other teams in the NFL and .16 yards worse than the leagues average. The good news though, reinforcements are on the way for the offensive line. The Bengals traded for Cordy Glenn to anchor left tackle and drafted Billy Price who should be starting at center Week 1. Glenn has the ability to be a top left tackle in the league, but has had issues staying healthy recently. This could be a huge steal for the Bengals if he plays all 16 games in 2017, but better yet, would help improve the side where the Bengals only had 1.19 yards before contact. Having a rookie center is not the ideal situation, but Price was a great pick for the Bengals. If these two can help turn the line around, Mixon and the rest of the offense will be much better in 2018.

 

Stalled Drives

Before we jump to Mixon’s performance, there is one other thing to note about the Bengals offense in 2017. The Bengals had one of the worse offenses in 2017 for drive efficiency. The improved offensive line and an improved performance from Mixon will help these numbers, but it is part of the reason why Mixon was not able to put together high volume last year.

The Bengals offense averaged 2:22 per drive last season, second to last in the league. They also finished last in plays per drive (5.11) and yards (24.2). The Bengals will need to extend drives in 2018 to offer Mixon more opportunity. Andy Dalton was sacked 39 times last season, tied for sixth most in the league and lost 255 yards on sacks. That is one way to kill a drive. An improved offensive line will offer more efficiency and extended drives. Extended drives will equal more opportunities for Mixon as well. It all goes back to cleaning up the line.

 

The Tale of Two Seasons

Some owners don’t see the improvement Mixon made from the first half to the second half of the season. Even though the offensive line was bad all season, Mixon was able to improve on his numbers. During Weeks 1 through 8, Mixon only had 88 rushes for 284 yards, good for 3.22 yards per carry. The whole Bengals backfield was in a time share the first few weeks of the season. Even though Jeremy Hill wasn’t good last season, he still spent the first seven weeks taking carries from Mixon.

From Weeks 9 through 16, Hill didn’t even see the field and Mixon had 80 rushes for 342 yards for 4.27 yards per carry. Keep in mind that during this time frame, Mixon also missed two games and part of another. If he had been healthy the full second half of the season, he could have run for over 800 yards and his full season yards per carry of 3.5 would have been higher.

The biggest reason Mixon should have a larger impact in 2018 was his 88.2 catch percentage, second-highest of any player in the league last season. Not just running backs, but all players at all positions. Bernard only had 12 receptions through the first eight weeks of the season last year. If the Bengals decide to give Mixon more of a role in the passing game, and Bernard sees the same workload he did in the first half last year, the work will be there for increased numbers.

 

What to Expect

If you read Mixon’s NFL draft profile, there is one huge comparison we should note. This isn’t just coming from fantasy owners who drool over Mixon’s tape, but NFL scouts saw a real comparison to Le’Veon Bell. For most owners who took a chance on Bell when he was a rookie in 2013, you may not have expected more than Mixon, but you would have gotten comparable numbers anyway.

During his rookie season, Bell rushed for 860 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Mixon only lacked the workload in his rookie season compared to Bell or their seasons would have matched up more. Mixon also had a much higher catch percentage than Bell but only 15 less catches. Mixon also averaged 9.6 yards per reception compared to Bell’s 8.9 yards per reception.

Do I expect Mixon to reach the level of production that Bell has shown the last few years? No, not right away. That would be unfair to expect that out of Mixon considering he plays on a less dynamic offense with a lesser quarterback. However, if Mixon is truly headed in the right direction, and is the player we saw in the second half of 2018, then we should expect a high-end RB2 in 2018 at least. Between the woes of the offensive line and Hill seeing work to start 2017, those were the reasons Mixon did not reach expectations. Both of those factors have been fixed for 2018 though, so it’s time to buy into Mixon this time. If you already own him, hold on. If you don’t own him, hurry up before the season gets here.

 

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Cronenworth3 hours ago

Targeting Earlier Return
Liam Hendriks3 hours ago

Set To Return On Saturday
Jackson Merrill3 hours ago

Not Expected To Return Next Week
Martín Pérez3 hours ago

Martin Perez Will Undergo MRI On Saturday
Casey Schmitt4 hours ago

Expected To Hit Injured List
Brock Stewart4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Sunday
Luke Keaschall4 hours ago

Busy In MLB Debut
Jose Fleury4 hours ago

Continues Strong Start On Friday
AJ Smith-Shawver5 hours ago

Strikes Out Eight In Defeat
Marcelo Mayer5 hours ago

Tallies Seven RBI On Friday
Zyhir Hope5 hours ago

Hits Two Home Runs On Friday
Andrew Painter5 hours ago

Sharp In Second Rehab Outing
Tyler Anderson10 hours ago

Keeps Hot Streak Rolling Friday
Logan Webb10 hours ago

Fans 12 In Tough-Luck Loss
Carlos Rodón10 hours ago

Carlos Rodon Goes Six Scoreless To Snap Personal Losing Streak
Andrew Abbott10 hours ago

Dominates Orioles On Friday
Yoshinobu Yamamoto11 hours ago

Tosses Another Gem
Cam Smith11 hours ago

Hits Two Taters On Friday
Trevor Story11 hours ago

Mashes Pair Of Three-Run Homers
Zack Wheeler14 hours ago

Records 13 Strikeouts
LaMonte Wade Jr.14 hours ago

Out On Friday
Ja Morant14 hours ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams15 hours ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis15 hours ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.15 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince15 hours ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL15 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart15 hours ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson15 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura15 hours ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves16 hours ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL16 hours ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić16 hours ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James16 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard16 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
NFL16 hours ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant16 hours ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Lauri Markkanen16 hours ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL16 hours ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Bennedict Mathurin16 hours ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Pascal Siakam17 hours ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Tyrese Haliburton17 hours ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham17 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
Josh Hart17 hours ago

Back In Knicks Lineup Saturday
OG Anunoby17 hours ago

Good To Go For Game 1
Jalen Brunson17 hours ago

Available For Saturday's Game 1
NFL18 hours ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith18 hours ago

Sticking With Texans
Ryan Lindgren18 hours ago

Set To Return Saturday
NFL18 hours ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch18 hours ago

Returning To Cardinals
Josh Manson18 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Mark Andrews18 hours ago

Could Be Traded Soon
Ondrej Palat18 hours ago

To Return For Start Of Playoffs
David Savard19 hours ago

Will Retire After Playoffs
NFL19 hours ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
Robert Thomas19 hours ago

Good To Go Saturday
Matthew Tkachuk19 hours ago

Expected To Return For Game 1
19 hours ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Jason Robertson19 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Rome Odunze19 hours ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
NFL19 hours ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
James Cook19 hours ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Wins First Rocket Richard Trophy
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Bags Third Art Ross Trophy
Bryan Rust1 day ago

Scores Twice In Season-Ending Win
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Shuts Out Lightning With 27 Saves
Dylan Cozens1 day ago

Picks Up Three Points In Regular-Season Finale
Matvei Michkov1 day ago

Caps Off Rookie Campaign With Three-Point Effort
Brady Tkachuk1 day ago

Makes Early Exit For Precautionary Reasons
Jake Tonges1 day ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Drew Lock1 day ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
New York Giants2 days ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Aaron Rodgers2 days ago

Willing To Play For $10 Million A Year
Jakob Chychrun2 days ago

Returns Against Penguins
Rasmus Andersson2 days ago

Out Against Kings
Jonathan Huberdeau2 days ago

Sits Out Regular-Season Finale
Ryan Pulock2 days ago

Out On Thursday
Jake Sanderson2 days ago

Back In Action Thursday
Thomas Chabot2 days ago

To Be Rested Against Hurricanes
Claude Giroux2 days ago

Active On Thursday
Lucas Glover3 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger3 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry3 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris3 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns3 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai3 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa3 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski4 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA4 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes4 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
5 days ago

Austin Dillon Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
5 days ago

Ryan Blaney's Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
5 days ago

Christopher Bell Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
5 days ago

Ty Gibbs Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
5 days ago

Chase Briscoe Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
5 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
5 days ago

William Byron Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
5 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR5 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF