X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Jesus Aguilar and David Dahl

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy baseball viability of Milwaukee 1B Jesus Aguilar and Rockies outfielder David Dahl for redraft leagues in 2019. Are they potential sleepers or draft day busts based on ADP?

Sometimes, it can be tough to turn away from the waiver wire guys who helped your team the previous year. Jesus Aguilar likely won some leagues with his 35-homer campaign out of nowhere last season. Likewise, David Dahl provided juice in all categories when he saw the field in 2018.

Unfortunately, adding somebody for free off of waivers is very different from investing an early draft pick in them. Advanced metrics suggest that both players above are likely to disappoint their fantasy owners based on what they currently cost.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their current ADP. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're being drafted as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're being drafted as a Tier 1 pitcher. Let's take a closer look at Aguilar and Dahl, shall we?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jesus Aguilar (1B, MIL) - ADP: 80.21

Aguilar crushed the ball in 2018, slashing .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers. Fantasy owners seem to believe in him, as he is taken inside the top 100 of most fantasy drafts. The question is whether Aguilar is worth that kind of investment.

Aguilar's signature skill is his power, and it looks pretty legit. Last season's 23.8% HR/FB was right on par with his career mark of 22.3%, and he tends to hit the volume of fly balls necessary to make full use of his power (40.9% FB%, 39.1% career). Aguilar pulls plenty of his flies (33.3% last year), and Statcast supports his pop as well. Aguilar combined above average airborne exit velocity (93.8 mph) with an exceptional 11.4% rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE) last year. Miller Park boosts power, and the team looks like a legitimate contender in a division filled with solid or better clubs.

A deeper look into his power numbers reveals some warning signs, however. Aguilar posted an excellent .298/.373/.621 line with 24 long balls before the All-Star Break, largely thanks to a very high 45.4% FB% and very low 3.4% IFFB%. That is a lot of quality contact! Unfortunately, those numbers fell to 35.6% and 10.3% in the second half, producing a line of .245/.324/.436 with only 11 homers. The 28-year old doesn't have enough of a track record to assume that his first half is the "real" Aguilar, so there is some risk he regresses to 25 home runs or so.

That would be bad, as Aguilar is a fairly one-dimensional player. He strikes out a lot (25.3% K% last year), and his 12.4% SwStr% suggests that he will continue to do so. He walked a lot last year (10.2% BB%), but his 35.6% chase rate was higher than league average. He can't run at all (24.7 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed), and he only had an xBA of .254 a season ago.

Aguilar has hit a lot of line drives with the Brewers (23.7% LD% last year, 22.7% career), giving him an elevated BABIP (.309 last season, .313 career). Don't be fooled by his history though, as a slow-footed guy who hits a lot of fly balls does not project for an elevated BABIP moving forward.

Honestly, it wouldn't be shocking to see a healthy Eric Thames start to take PAs from a struggling Aguilar at some point this season. You're probably better off taking a potential ace in Jose Berrios (77.67 ADP), a top-notch closer in Kenley Jansen (76.64), a potential superstar in Corey Seager (85.02), or a rock-solid contributor in Jose Abreu (86.50). Heck, Jonathan Villar (86.89) offers five-category upside to Aguilar's three if everything breaks right. There are much better investments on draft day.

Verdict: Chump (based on an ADP of 80)

 

David Dahl (OF, COL) - ADP: 70.58

Dahl put up enticing numbers in roughly a half a season for the Rockies last year, slashing .273/.325/.534 with 16 homers and five steals (three CS) over 271 PAs. Judging from how early he's leaving draft boards, fantasy owners are salivating at the prospect of his recording a full season in 2019. However, a closer look reveals that the 24-year old is far from a finished product.

For example, Dahl's splits suggest that he is anything but a set and forget option. He didn't hit at all outside of Denver's thin air, slashing an anemic .200/.274/.324 with three homers on the road last year. Likewise, he struggled against left-handed pitching to the tune of a .234/.258/.438 line, including a 33.3% K% and 3% BB%. He's viable in formats that allow you to bench him for all road games and games against left-handed starters, but why would you pay an early pick for that kind of headache?

Similarly, Dahl's advanced metrics aren't great. His 7% BB% last season looks reasonable enough, but it masks a 39.6% chase rate that suggests his eye needs a lot more work. His 15.4% SwStr% also suggests that he can be overwhelmed by major league pitching, something that his surface 25.1% K% may not have immediately revealed.

Likewise, Dahl's 23.2% HR/FB last season wasn't supported by his 93 mph average airborne exit velocity or his 9.3% rate of Brls/BBE, and his xSLG of .445 fell far short of his actual .534 mark. Dahl can run (28.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed), but has only gone 10-for-13 on SB attempts over 508 career MLB PAs. Coors provides some leeway, but you'd like to be investing in some kind of actual skill instead of relying exclusively on the ballpark to produce value.

Dahl's MiLB track record also suggests that he has limited upside. He slashed .278/.304/.417 with six homers and 22 steals for Double-A New Britain in 2015, masking atrocious plate discipline (3.6% BB%, 23.8% K%) with a .352 BABIP. He lifted the ball (43.5% FB%), but his 6.6% HR/FB limited the value of his fly balls.

The team moved to Hartford for the 2016 season, though the team didn't actually have any home games as their park wasn't finished yet. Dahl slashed .278/.367/.500 with 13 HR and 16 steals (five CS), hitting fewer flies (36.9% FB%) but making them matter more (17.8% HR/FB). He also walked more (11.7% BB%) at the cost of a few more strikeouts (25.6% K%). His .351 BABIP was nearly identical to his previous performance. Dahl was great at Triple-A Albuquerque (.484/.529/.887), but he only had 68 PAs there before making his big league debut.

Dahl's .315/.359/.500 line with seven homers and five steals over 237 PAs with the Rockies looked shiny, but his .404 BABIP suggests that his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. His plate discipline was meh (6.3% BB%, 24.9% K%), and his 33.1% FB% was too low to truly take advantage of Coors Field.

Expectations were high coming into 2017, but a rib injury limited him to just 82 PAs split across three levels. He was relatively healthy last season, but the Rockies frequently used him as a bench bat in favor of the reanimated corpses of Carlos Gonzalez and Matt Holliday. The club is still prone to shockingly bad decisions, so counting on them to use Dahl is risky. Counting on Dahl to both play and produce when you could take Lorenzo Cain (65.44 ADP), Jean Segura (67.87), Craig Kimbrel (70.79), or Joey Votto (72.25) instead borders on insanity.

Verdict: Chump (based on ADP of 70)

 

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brock Stewart15 mins ago

Expected To Return On Sunday
Luke Keaschall38 mins ago

Busy In MLB Debut
Jose Fleury50 mins ago

Continues Strong Start On Friday
AJ Smith-Shawver1 hour ago

Strikes Out Eight In Defeat
Marcelo Mayer1 hour ago

Tallies Seven RBI On Friday
Zyhir Hope1 hour ago

Hits Two Home Runs On Friday
Andrew Painter1 hour ago

Sharp In Second Rehab Outing
Tyler Anderson7 hours ago

Keeps Hot Streak Rolling Friday
Logan Webb7 hours ago

Fans 12 In Tough-Luck Loss
Carlos Rodón7 hours ago

Carlos Rodon Goes Six Scoreless To Snap Personal Losing Streak
Andrew Abbott7 hours ago

Dominates Orioles On Friday
Yoshinobu Yamamoto7 hours ago

Tosses Another Gem
Cam Smith7 hours ago

Hits Two Taters On Friday
Trevor Story7 hours ago

Mashes Pair Of Three-Run Homers
Zack Wheeler10 hours ago

Records 13 Strikeouts
LaMonte Wade Jr.11 hours ago

Out On Friday
Evan Phillips11 hours ago

Expected To Be Activated Next Week
Lucas Erceg11 hours ago

Exits After Getting Hit By Comebacker
Ja Morant11 hours ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Martín Pérez11 hours ago

Martin Perez Makes Early Exit On Friday
Brandon Williams11 hours ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis11 hours ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.11 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince12 hours ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL12 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart12 hours ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson12 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura12 hours ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves12 hours ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL12 hours ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić12 hours ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
Brandon Young12 hours ago

Set To Make MLB Debut On Saturday
LeBron James12 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard12 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
Jacob Lopez12 hours ago

Recalled From Triple-A
NFL12 hours ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant12 hours ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Lauri Markkanen13 hours ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL13 hours ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Bennedict Mathurin13 hours ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Pascal Siakam13 hours ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Tyrese Haliburton13 hours ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham13 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
Josh Hart13 hours ago

Back In Knicks Lineup Saturday
OG Anunoby14 hours ago

Good To Go For Game 1
Jalen Brunson14 hours ago

Available For Saturday's Game 1
NFL14 hours ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith14 hours ago

Sticking With Texans
Ryan Lindgren15 hours ago

Set To Return Saturday
NFL15 hours ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch15 hours ago

Returning To Cardinals
Josh Manson15 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Mark Andrews15 hours ago

Could Be Traded Soon
Ondrej Palat15 hours ago

To Return For Start Of Playoffs
David Savard15 hours ago

Will Retire After Playoffs
NFL15 hours ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
Robert Thomas15 hours ago

Good To Go Saturday
Matthew Tkachuk15 hours ago

Expected To Return For Game 1
15 hours ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Jason Robertson15 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Rome Odunze16 hours ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
NFL16 hours ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
James Cook16 hours ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Leon Draisaitl23 hours ago

Wins First Rocket Richard Trophy
Nikita Kucherov23 hours ago

Bags Third Art Ross Trophy
Bryan Rust23 hours ago

Scores Twice In Season-Ending Win
Igor Shesterkin24 hours ago

Shuts Out Lightning With 27 Saves
Dylan Cozens24 hours ago

Picks Up Three Points In Regular-Season Finale
Matvei Michkov24 hours ago

Caps Off Rookie Campaign With Three-Point Effort
Brady Tkachuk24 hours ago

Makes Early Exit For Precautionary Reasons
Jake Tonges1 day ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Drew Lock1 day ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
New York Giants1 day ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
New Orleans Saints1 day ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Buffalo Bills1 day ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Aaron Rodgers1 day ago

Willing To Play For $10 Million A Year
Jakob Chychrun2 days ago

Returns Against Penguins
Rasmus Andersson2 days ago

Out Against Kings
Jonathan Huberdeau2 days ago

Sits Out Regular-Season Finale
Ryan Pulock2 days ago

Out On Thursday
Jake Sanderson2 days ago

Back In Action Thursday
Thomas Chabot2 days ago

To Be Rested Against Hurricanes
Claude Giroux2 days ago

Active On Thursday
Lucas Glover3 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger3 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry3 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris3 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns3 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai3 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa3 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski4 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA4 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes4 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Austin Dillon5 days ago

Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
William Byron5 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
William Byron5 days ago

Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR5 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Will Compete For The Win At Bristol
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Is One Of The More Favorable DFS Options Available For Bristol
William Byron6 days ago

Is A Solid DFS Option For Bristol Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF