Jeffrey Wilson (RB, SF) - Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups

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ANALYSIS: We shouldn't lie to us by hailing Jeffrey Wilson as the next big thing. He isn't such a player, far from it. But he could be on his way to be the ultimate vulture and fantasy weapon if San Francisco keeps using it the way they've done during the two games he's played. With Tevin Coleman out, it is more than probable that that turns to be the case at least for the weeks being. Owners rejoice, waiver wire hunters shoot your shot.

Wilson's 2018 season wasn't bad. He was ultra limited in opportunities, finishing the year with just six games played, and 266 yards on 66 rushing attempts. He didn't score a touchdown and only had 11 attempts inside the 20-yard line. His efficiency numbers were a little better, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. On top of that, and adding value to his game, Wilson was able to rack up 98 yards on 12 receptions (15 targets), dropping just one pass and averaging 6.5 yards per target.

This season, in the two games he's played so far for the 49ers, his role has been as clear as water. Get the ball in the red zone, and cross the goal line. Wilson ranks 50th among running backs in opportunities (runs+targets), yet he's already scored four touchdowns. Even with his ridiculously low usage, Wilson is averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game due to the importance of his touches: he has rushed in 56.6% of San Francisco's red zone run-plays.

Obviously, there is no player in the league as touchdown-dependent as Wilson is in order to produce for fantasy GMs. Wilson is a longshot and someone you should not consider play more than at the Flex and maybe just in favorable matchups (his two great performances came against Cincinnati's second-worst defense against RBs, and Pittsburgh's sixth-worst). His ceiling is as high as the chances he gets near the goal line, but other than that he offers a floor really close to zero. I would advise picking him from waivers to see if San Francisco keeps using him to score easy touchdowns, and if that is the case I'd go with him weekly provided it's going to be hard not to see him cross the line at least once per game.