Jeffrey Springs (SP, TBR) - 2023 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 160

CURRENT ADP: ~175 overall

ANALYSIS: After making just two starts in the majors in his first four campaigns, Jeffrey Springs joined the Rays rotation in May, making 25 starts. Over 33 appearances and 135.1 innings, he broke out with a 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26.2% strikeout rate, and nine wins, guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation this season. Clearly, an ERA that low will be hard to replicate. However, his 3.04 FIP and 3.27 xERA are still solid numbers, and any fantasy manager would take an ERA in that range. Springs' strikeout rate was much lower than the 32.7% mark he managed the previous two seasons, partly due to his transition into a starter. But, his whiff rate ranked in the 76th percentile, while his 95th-percentile chase rate was a career-high.

One of the biggest reasons for Springs' success this year was his pitch mix change. The southpaw threw his fastball a career-low 40.4% of the time and had a slider usage of 24.8%, the lowest of the past three seasons. Instead, he started using his best pitch, the changeup, more often, reaching a career-high 34.7% usage rate. The offering posted a .205 xBA and 38.1% whiff rate. The change in fastball usage also allowed Springs to produce a career-best 41.2% ground ball rate, compared to his 36.8% all-time mark.

The more balls on the ground helped Springs post a HR/9 below 1.00 for the first time in his career (0.93). Although a 9.6% HR/FB rate helped him out, I don't think we'll see another 1.81 HR/9 as we did in 2021. Further, the Springs has shown decent command in recent years but really improved it last season with a 5.6% walk rate.  Fantasy managers may be concerned about his volume heading into 2023. Seven of Springs' final 12 starts last season were at least 5.2 innings, a trend that should continue. The Rays are gunning for another playoff appearance, giving Springs plenty of opportunities to win double-digit games. Springs' fantasy relevance has just begun

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