Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT): 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~129 Overall

CURRENT ADP: ~162

ANALYSIS:  Jaylen Warren was one of the lone bright spots in a disappointing offense for Pittsburgh last season. As an undrafted free agent, the Oklahoma State product was able to grind out a roster spot and was extremely productive when he saw game action. He was only given 77 carries but turned those into 379 rushing yards and one touchdown, while also bringing in 28 of 33 balls for an additional 214 yards.

While Warren is stuck behind one of the NFL’s most durable young players in Najee Harris -- a former first-round pick who has not missed a full collegiate or professional game -- he did more with less. Warren averaged 0.85 fantasy points per opportunity, which ranked #18 overall amongst running backs.

In contrast, Harris scored 0.69 points per opportunity behind the same offensive line (which ranked #63), meaning that Warren was much more efficient when he got the ball on the ground and through the air. His rushing yards after contact per attempt also bested Harris, who is known for his ability to shed tacklers. It was on par with fantasy studs such as Travis Etienne and Dalvin Cook.

In his first season with limited opportunities, a terrible offensive line, and subpar quarterback play, Warren was efficient when he was called upon and earned himself more touches for this coming season. He’s even drawn comparisons to a young Austin Ekeler, which is lofty but understandable considering the fact that both were UDFAs with the same build and have almost identical early-career situations.

Warren also has little to no competition on his claim to the RB2 spot. Fourth-year pro Anthony McFarland Jr. returns, but he is a mere afterthought having received nine carries combined over the past two seasons. The organization also chose not to draft a running back this past spring or make any big free agent splashy pickups with flashy vets Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Kareem Hunt on the open market. 

The undrafted sophomore back appears to have picked up where he left off, making splash plays with limited opportunities this preseason. He rushed only six times but turned those into 89 yards and two touchdowns over the three-game stretch, highlighted by this 62-yard house call where he made All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer look foolish. 

While it’s unlikely Warren will usurp Harris as the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh, the former has proven that he more than belongs in his short professional career and is going to be extremely hard to keep off the field this upcoming season.

With a mid-12th round ADP going behind players such as Tank Bigsby and Romeo Doubs, Warren is one of the biggest smashes of 2023. I’m taking him a full two rounds early, especially in keeper leagues. If Harris were to miss time, Warren would immediately be a weekly top-10 play at the position. He’s more than worth that late-round flier. 

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