Jaylen Warren - Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 13 (2023)

BALLER MOVE: Start in 10+ team leagues

POSITIONAL VALUE: RB2

ANALYSIS: I wrote about Warren as one of the best value picks in 2023 drafts back in August, and the undrafted free agent has even outperformed those expectations this season. He enters Week 13 as the RB25, after being drafted as the RB45 on average. The burst and explosiveness have been on full display this year, which has led to a semi-changing of the guard in Pittsburgh at the running back position.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh's bell-cow since he was drafted back in 2021, has seen his previously dominant snap share dwindle in 2023. The former first-round pick has seen only 54% of the snaps to Warren's 46%. The latter has also been much more involved in the passing game, with a 14% target share to Harris' 8%, and that has helped him score more fantasy points through 12 weeks than his backfield counterpart. Warren passes the old-fashioned eye test with flying colors, but the metrics also love him as well.

Last week against Cincy, we saw Warren have one of his worst games of the season, while Harris rumbled for 99 yards and a score. However, this was the first time in the last four weeks that Warren finished outside of the top 15 at his position. He also received three targets with Harris not getting a single look from quarterback Kenny Pickett. The down game from Warren was more of an outlier than a warning sign.

He now finds himself in a perfect bounce-back spot, taking on the Arizona Cardinals and their abysmal rush defense. Arizona is 31st in rush yards allowed, 30th in touchdowns given up, and 26th in YPC. They are also second to last in fantasy points given up to the running back position, and just let fifth-round pick Kyren Williams put up 204 scrimmage yards that included six receptions, two of which went for scores. Both Steelers backs should have a second Thanksgiving feast this Sunday at home.

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