Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Waddle?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was widely pushed as a potential league-winner in fantasy football in 2024 due to a variety of factors. The explosiveness and big-play ability of the Dolphins offense, the good play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his talent were a few of them.

It's not worked out that way. It's been a disaster -- the worst players you can have on your fantasy rosters are those you picked highly in drafts, yet score low point totals in most of their games. It's hard to know if you can bench them or if you're waiting for a breakout.

So what's wrong with Waddle? Why is he doing so poorly? Should you even have him in your starting lineups anymore?

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Problem One: Opposing Defenses Want To Stop The Big Plays

The fact is that defenses are selling out to stop the big plays. The proliferation of two-high safety defensive formations geared around preventing them from getting gashed for long touchdowns has led to a league-wide decline in offensive production over the last few years.

It's even led to some of the more eccentric minds in the NFL space to call for its banning, though that will probably never happen. But fans of the sport and certain fantasy managers aren't very happy with the outcome.

.@MelKiperESPN believes two-high safeties "should be outlawed" 👀

"The NFL is being ruined by these two-high safeties." pic.twitter.com/d65PFJysIq

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) September 19, 2024

The NFL's Next Gen Stats did an excellent breakdown of the way it's shaped play across the league. Offenses have responded by creating fewer big plays, throwing it deep less, and finishing with fewer passing yards per game. Big-play threats have seen their fantasy scoring totals trend downward as a result.

Obviously, teams that face Miami know that this is one of the best ways to slow them down, so it's not a surprise that the results show up in the stat sheets and on fantasy football scoreboards.

Problem Two: Miami's Offense Has Adjusted, and De'Von Achane

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown the ball deep much less this year than in previous seasons. There are a few reasons for this, but obviously, the looks the defenses have been presenting have been a factor. PlayerProfiler shows his air yards per attempt absolutely plummeting from 2023 to 2024, dropping from 7.6 to just 5.6.

One of the biggest enablers for Miami to have a reasonably successful offense without throwing the ball downfield much is running back De'Von Achane, who's shined in what is essentially the team's WR2 role despite being a running back. He's been incredibly reliable running routes from the backfield, the slot, and even out wide.

Dolphins drive right back down the field to tie it 🐬

Achane has 13 TDs in 13 career games 🔥

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/9kr7YExlMB

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 13, 2024

He's had games with seven catches for 76 yards, seven catches for 69 yards and a touchdown, six catches for 50 yards and a score, and eight catches for 58 yards and a TD. As a running back. Shout out to Dolphins beat reporter Travis Wingfield for repeatedly comparing Achane to a Tyreek Hill type running back, whatever that is.

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has taken a lot of criticism (largely from angry fantasy managers) about his offense, but because of Achane, the short passing game really is working. It's come at the detriment of Waddle and Hill, of course, but defenses seem happy to let it happen as a trade-off for limiting big plays.

📊 Miami Dolphins offensive line stats this season (league ranks):

➖ 88.4 pass-blocking efficiency (3rd)
➖ 13 sacks allowed (10th)
➖ 12 QB hits allowed (t-6th)
➖ 46 hurries allowed (2nd)
➖ 71 pressures allowed (t-2nd)

(@PFF) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/po1p0PuTKX

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) November 19, 2024

The changes have made the offensive line look much better than it actually is -- they lost their star center, Connor Williams, to free agency after he tore his ACL and they didn't re-sign him. But the quick passing has kept Tagovailoa mostly clean, and keeping him free from taking hits is massive for his long-term availability, considering his long history of concussions.

QB Time To Throw and ADOT (graphs with and without Richardson) pic.twitter.com/jM2emqJ47Z

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) November 19, 2024

Yeah... it's not good. He's the fastest QB to throw in the league and his targets are the shortest on average, and it's not close.

Problem Three: His 2022 Season Was An Outlier

Waddle's outlandish efficiency and ridiculous yards-after-catch generation of 2022 have not been replicated since. While his much more mediocre 2023 season was excused away due to a bunch of injuries, his 2024 season has been even worse.

According to PlayerProfiler, in 2022, Waddle had an Average Depth of Target (ADOT) of 12.1 yards. That fell to 10.1 in 2023 and a mere 8.9 in 2024. He had an absurd 2.81 yards per route run in 2022, which fell to 2.68 in 2023 and plummeted to a measly 1.47 in 2024. His yards per target dipped from 11.7 to 9.8, to 8.6.

His yards per reception similarly suffered -- it was 18.1 in 2022, 14.1 in 2023, and just 12.2 in 2024. Across the board, many of his efficiency metrics are way down. His touchdown percentage suffered the most, from a 10.3% rate to 5.3% and then 2.8%.

Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle for a Touchdown 😍🔥pic.twitter.com/517amXbMj2

— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) September 11, 2022

It's not too hard to see why when you look at some of his plays from 2022. Defenses likely analyzed the tape and realized they absolutely could not allow these huge breakaway plays.

📆 A Year Ago Today: Jaylen Waddle 84-yard touchdown run vs. Green Bay Packers #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/uu41XHam0q

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) December 25, 2023

Defenses playing with two-high safety formations makes it a lot harder to make these huge plays, and it makes perfect sense that they'd want to limit an offense that looks like a track team from taking things to the house. Even if you discount this fact, there were plenty of plays that you just don't typically see receivers make multiple times per season.

Will Jaylen Waddle Turn It Around?

Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the days of No. 17 busting off huge plays and scoring double-digit fantasy points on single plays are probably behind us. There are too many factors working against him, and many changes in both his team's offense and opposing defenses that are likely here to stay.

McDaniel likely wants to continue to keep Tagovailoa healthy by having him pass quickly. Defenses will continue to sell out to stop the big plays and allow plenty of underneath passing. Achane will keep being Achane and demanding his targets. And even the emergence of tight end Jonnu Smith isn't helping him out.

It's past time for managers to adjust their expectations. As long as Hill is present, he may never get the boost in volume he'll need to match his 2022 fantasy production. And Hill is probably staying with the team for at least a few more years.

Jaylen Waddle with an unfortunate drop that kills the drive. Jason Sanders hits the FG and the Dolphins go up 10-0.#FinsUp pic.twitter.com/JW6nCLJ17W

— Matt Newton (@MattNewtonNFL) November 12, 2024

Waddle is becoming a genuine drop candidate in many leagues. He should probably remain rostered. He has a solid matchup against the New England Patriots in Week 12 and is worth starting for potential upside in deeper leagues, but in those with 12 or fewer teams, he carries a ton of risk.

He probably can't be relied upon to be a consistent starter for the rest of the season, unfortunately, which is bad news for those who invested a high draft pick in him. But keep all this in mind heading into 2025. There are players with blinding speed that have other ridiculous traits that can help them succeed, like Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Maybe take him instead.

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