RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~85 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~107
ANALYSIS: Daniels’ ADP reflects the quarterback position's strength but indicates that rushing success at the position is still undervalued. That seems hard to believe, considering just how good Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are for fantasy football.
Over his final 39 collegiate games, Daniels had 459 carries, 2,729 rushing yards, and 27 touchdowns. We’re talking about 153 carries, 910 yards, and nine touchdowns in 13 games. In his final two seasons at LSU, he had 321 carries, 2,019 yards, and 21 touchdowns. That amounts to 161 carries, 1,010 yards, and 10 touchdowns over 13 games. For context, Kyler Murray had 140 carries, 1,001 yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns in his final season at Oklahoma in 14 games, so Daniels is in some excellent company.
Comparing the rushing potential for Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to recent Round 1/2 QBs:
- Designed rush rate dropped from college to pros for everyone but Lamar. CFB scramble rate seems to be the more important metric.
- No QB had a higher scramble% than Daniels. pic.twitter.com/forfY4ycjy— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 1, 2024
From 1990-2023, five quarterbacks have had 150 or more rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB5, and QB7 in PPG averages. Since 1990, there have been nine quarterbacks with 125-149 rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB3, QB3, QB5, QB5, QB7, QB8, and QB23. QB23, the lone outlier here, belongs to Cam Newton’s 2020 season with the New England Patriots. That year, he threw 368 passes and just eight touchdowns. Everyone else, though, finished in the top eight. Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks to finish with 700 or more rushing yards. Their fantasy finishes have ranged from QB1 to QB11. Fifteen have finished in the top five, 10 have finished in the top three, and five have finished as “the” QB1.
Running the football as a quarterback is a cheat code for fantasy football. Daniels has proven he can do it, and he does it at a high level. As you've just learned, the history of running quarterbacks is incredibly impressive for fantasy football. Daniels doesn’t need to be a great passer. He doesn’t. Justin Fields finished with 2,241 passing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022 but still finished as the QB5 with a 20.5 PPG average. Why? Because he could run the ball!
In 2019, Kyler Murray finished his rookie season with 3,722 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also had 93 carries, 544 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals head coach from that year, is now Daniels’ offensive coordinator. Murray finished as the QB12 that season with an 18.8 PPG average.
This fact won’t help Daniels win games as a rookie, but it’ll undoubtedly help for fantasy. The Washington defense ranked 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in yards given up. It’s unlikely it’ll be last in both categories again in 2024, but it won’t be good, that’s for sure. That’ll put Daniels and the Washington offense in a position where they’re chasing points. There will be plenty of garbage points.
On top of their defense putting them in a position to play fast, Kingsbury’s offenses have also been fast-paced as it is. Daniels should get plenty of opportunities to throw the ball, and a below-average offensive line could have him running quite a bit.
Given Daniels’ ability to run the football, his current positional ADP becomes such a smash for fantasy managers looking to wait on a quarterback. Daniels is a buy all day long at his current cost.
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