X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Javonte Williams Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In or Out?

Javonte Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Rob takes a deep dive into Javonte Williams’s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023. Is he worth his current draft price in 2023 or does Williams have bust potential?

Some fantasy managers have Javonte Williams completely off of their draft boards due to his significant knee injury. The injury wasn't your typical torn ACL, which brings with it some of its own concerns. Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and PLC. This multi-ligament injury creates plenty of reasons for fantasy managers to be skeptical. This is especially true after J.K. Dobbins struggled mightily in 2022 in his return from a similar, multi-ligament injury, which fantasy managers now associate with Williams.

However, recent reports indicate Williams is much further along than Dobbins had been at this time in his recovery. Not only that, but Williams has not suffered any of the setbacks that Dobbins experienced. While there are plenty of reasons to be cautious, there's also no guarantee Williams struggles with his injury as Dobbins did. We also need to recognize the changes Denver made this offseason. The offensive line additions are huge, but they pale in comparison to the hires of head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi.  There is a lot to be excited about Williams’ fantasy value, but is it worth the risk? Let’s discuss this.

You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

 

Injury-Risk

Javonte Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL on October 2, 2022. The surgery is believed to have occurred at the end of October. While a torn ACL recovery is typically given a 9–12 month timetable, athletes have been returning on the shorter side in recent years. Based on the estimated time of surgery for Williams to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, he’ll have had 320 days to recover or roughly 10.7 months. Considering there have been no setbacks, it’s completely possible, maybe even probable, he’s active for Week 1.

The thing is all players outside of the first three rounds come with risk in some form. Maybe it’s health. Maybe it’s an overcrowded depth chart. Maybe it’s coaching or maybe they’re in a great situation but have never displayed the talent to take advantage. The reality is, anyone in the range of Williams has some sort of risk. It’s why they’re not in the first three rounds. Williams's risk is his health, but reports coming in have been incredibly positive.

We can maintain our skepticism while also being open to the fact that Williams just doesn’t care about skepticism. Realistically, fantasy managers need to be prepared for the fact that Williams is unlikely to take on a big role early in the season. The team will undoubtedly take it slow with him, but that is already baked into the price tag. If that risk didn’t exist, considering what Denver’s done in the offseason, ask yourself — where would Williams be going? Would he be a top-15 RB? Top-12? Top-10? Don’t discount the injury risk twice because, at RB29, it’s already accounted for and then some.

Each injury and each recovery is different. Williams's recovery has been completely and utterly different than Dobbins, so we need to stop using that as a comparison. It’s not. Yes, they had a similar injury, but their recoveries have been two totally different stories.

 

Offensive Line Upgrades

This offseason, Denver signed former 49er Mike McGlinchey and former Raven Ben Powers. These two additions are expected to start at right tackle and left guard, respectively. The team will also welcome back Garrett Boles, who only played in five games last season. The remaining two starting spots will be manned by Lloyd Cushenberry II and Quinn Meinerz. Overall, the line looks like a significant strength for the team.

Powers didn’t give up a single sack last year for the Ravens and allowed just one quarterback hit. He’s more known for his pass-blocking prowess than his run-blocking, but regardless, he still represents a solid addition to the front five. McGlinchey has been a solid contributor in San Francisco for the last five years. He registered a 73.3 run-blocking grade from PFF last year, his third season with a score higher than 70.

PFF ranks the Broncos’ offensive line as the 11th-best unit heading into the 2023 season and they’re not the only ones who are high on this group. Pro Football Network also has the Denver offensive line ranked 11th while The Game Day has them 13th, and FTN Fantasy has them ranked 12th. A team’s offensive line is pivotal to an NFL’s team success running the football and the Broncos’ put a huge emphasis on improving this unit. By all accounts, it appears the mission was successful.

 

The Sean Payton Effect

Ever since becoming the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, there has been no one better at producing elite fantasy football running backs than Sean Payton. The results speak for themselves.

He has been a head coach for 15 seasons. In seven of those seasons, his running back group scored 100 more half-PPR points than the league average. His running backs scored at least 50 half-PPR points more than the league average in 12 out of 15 seasons and just once, in 2021, they did have fewer than the league average. You could argue, “But wait, that’s as a group. What about the No. 1 guy, how’s he done?” And to that, I’d show you this…

Year Starting RB Half-PPR PPG
2021 Alvin Kamara 16.2 (RB5)
2020 Alvin Kamara 22.4 (RB2)
2019 Alvin Kamara 14.6 (RB11)
2018 Alvin Kamara 20.9 (RB5)
2017    Mark Ingram      Alvin Kamara      16.1 (RB8)      16.8 (RB5)
2016 Mark Ingram 13.1 (RB16)
2015 Mark Ingram 14.9 (RB5)
2014 Mark Ingram 13.8 (RB11)
2013 Pierre Thomas 10.9 (RB23)
2011 Darren Sproles 14.3 (RB14)
2010 Pierre Thomas 12.3 (RB19)
2009   Pierre Thomas Reggie Bush     12.6 (RB18)     10.3 (RB28)
2008 Reggie Bush 14.6 (RB15)
2007 Reggie Bush 14.4 (RB10)
2006 Reggie Bush 13.9 (RB14)

Payton has had 12 running backs finish in the top-15 in half-PPR PPG average in 15 years. Five times one of his running backs has finished in the top five. Combine all of that with Joe Lombardi who worked under Payton from 2007–2013 and again from 2016–2020. He was the offensive coordinator in Detroit in 2014 and 2015 and the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2021 and 2022. Joique Bell finished as the RB16 with a 12.2 half-PPR PPG average in 2013 and who can forget about Austin Ekeler these past two seasons? He finished as the RB1 (19.5) and RB3 (8) in 2022 and 2021, respectively.

The duo of Payton and Lombardi is one of the very best coaching combinations for fantasy running backs or any position for that matter. A lot of this success is due to their running back’s involvement in the passing game. Everywhere these coaches have gone, this position has played a pivotal part in their passing attack.

 

Javonte Williams’ Career

Unlike some of the other players selected for this series, Williams has a much smaller sample of playing for fantasy managers to decipher. He was a rookie during the 2021 season and suffered his season-ending injury in Week 4 last year. Still, what he’s accomplished in this short time should have fantasy managers excited. Using statistics from PlayerProfiler, you can see just how effective he’s been in the last year and a half.

Year RYOE/Carry YAC/Attempt Att/BrkTkl Juke Rate Evaded Tackles Breakaway Run Rate True YPC
2022 -0.09 2.3 7.8 30.2% 19 6.4% 4.3
2021 0.35 (14th) 2.3 (7th) 6.5 (1st)  32.9% (8th) 81 (6th) 3.9% (27th) 4.2 (31st)

Williams has been one of the very best runners in creating yards after contact and breaking tackles. His juke rate and the number of evaded tackles were both top 10 in 2021 and were very promising early in 2022, as well. While the sample isn’t as large as we’d like, it’s hard not to see just how effective he’s been carrying the football. He’s also shown a lot of promise catching the ball, as well.

Year Target Share TPG RPG RYPG YPRR
2022 17.5% 5.5 4.0 19.0 1.36
2021 10.2% (21st) 3.1 (17th) 2.5 (13th) 18.6 (18th) 1.45 (17th)

Despite his rookie status in 2021, he still finished 17th in targets among running backs and had a 10.2% target share. It wasn’t just that he got the opportunity either, but he was successful with his chances, finishing 17th in yards per route run. For a rookie, this was incredibly encouraging. Oftentimes, rookie running backs aren’t given a big role in the passing game due to pass-blocking inadequacies, but this wasn’t a factor for Williams. Certainly looking at a four-game sample should come with a grain of salt, it’s impossible to not have been excited about his role in the passing game this past season.

He has been one of the more effective running backs in the NFL for the past two years and has shown the ability to be a three-down player. His size gives him the potential to become a true workhorse running back. Again, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect this early in 2023. However, Williams has the talent to be a major contributor both on the ground and through the air.

Year Yards Created Per Touch Yards Per Touch
2022 2.84 4.4
2021 3.42 (7th) 5.0 (18th)

As a rookie, despite sharing the backfield in a 50/50 split with Melvin Gordon, Williams finished with an 11.0 half-PPR PPG average, which ranked RB25, four spots ahead of his current Yahoo! ADP.

 

So… Are You In or Out?

Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently drafting Williams as the RB29 in half-PPR scoring, requiring fantasy managers to use a late seventh-round pick. At this cost, fantasy managers should absolutely be in on Javonte Williams. There’s just far too much upside at this point and very little risk.

Round seven picks are far from sure things, but very few of them come with the upside to be a top-12 player at their position. Williams possesses that. Even if Denver takes it slow with Williams for the first four weeks of the season, a likely outcome, he could be a top 12 running back the final 12 weeks of the season and that upside is well worth the seventh-round price tag.

The injury concerns are legit — although by all accounts Williams is well ahead of schedule — they’ve been more than taken into consideration. A fully-healthy Williams would be a top-15 running back and going in the fourth round. Now he’s barely a top-30 running back and going at the bottom of the seventh. The injury concerns, exaggerated or not, have been more than accounted for.

With the history of Payton and the offensive line upgrades, Williams has the potential to be a league-winning running back down the stretch and that kind of player is someone everyone should want on their roster if it only takes a seventh-rounder to acquire. Conclusion — all in.

As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF