Jamie Steed's 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions

8 months ago by Jamie Steed

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11. More Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider.

And the latter is what these are! Sort of. I'm not going to tell you I think Spencer Strider leads the league in strikeouts this year. That's not exactly bold now, is it? I do think that each of these predictions has a legitimate chance of occurring this year but I'm not banking on them.

They should offer some insight into what I'm looking at in terms of performance from the relevant names. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X. Without further ado, here are my ten bold predictions for the 2024 season.

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Anthony Rizzo

Is going to be a top-five first baseman with 30 homers and 100 RBI

It feels like I've been mentioning Rizzo as the most undervalued player in fantasy this year. The projections and consensus seem to believe what we got last year from Rizzo is what we can expect this year. However, that is ignoring the fact Rizzo seemingly played a third of the season dealing with concussion-like symptoms. In the first third of 2023, Rizzo was exceptional. We can see his numbers before and after last season's injury.

Split	G	HR	RBI	R	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
Pre-injury	53	11	32	30	.304	.376	.505	146
Post-injury	46	1	9	15	.172	.271	.225	44

Rizzo was tied-12th in wRC+ when he had the collision at first base on May 28. He was on course for back-to-back 30+ home run seasons. It was unlikely Rizzo was going to have a .300 batting average all year. But we may have forgotten those 53 games were with the new shift ban rules in effect. Oh, and Rizzo is also going to hit fourth in the Yankees lineup, behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Rizzo is poised to be the draft bargain of the year.

CJ Abrams

Is going to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 60 stolen bases

Many fantasy managers believe Abrams is being overvalued (ADP ~37). That may end up being the case. But if he can improve on last year's numbers, Abrams will find himself being a top-5 pick in 2025 drafts. It's easy to forget that Abrams was considered an elite prospect and is still only 23 years old. He hit .331/.385/.511 in the Minors (114 games) so an improvement on last year's .245 batting average isn't beyond comprehension.

Abrams also stole 42 bases in those 114 Minor League games. He stole 47 bases in 151 games last season. If he can hit .280, the stolen base opportunities will increase and 60 bases aren't out of the question either. While Abrams could end up struggling, I'd rather be an optimist. An improved batting average will directly lead to Abrams being a fantasy MVP candidate.

James Outman

He is going to have a 30 homer and 20 steal season

Outman's debut season came and went with very little fanfare. It's not often a rookie can have 23 homers, 70 RBI, 86 RBI and 16 stolen bases without receiving excessive hype the following Spring. Yet, that's exactly what we are dealing with. The perception is that Outman will struggle for at-bats against left-handed pitching (LHP). But he played 151 games last year and had a respectable .254/.357/.308 slash line against LHP.

The power was lacking against lefties but his 11.7% BB% against them and (his defense) will mean he won't be in a platoon. Outman's 31.9% K% isn't ideal but that won't impact his power. And his 12.0% BB% will continue to give Outman opportunities to run. After a hot start in 2023, Outman cooled down. Then had a productive second half. If he can maintain some consistency over a full season, a 30/20 season is in play.

Nolan Gorman

Hits 40 homers in 2024

I didn't think this was that bold of a prediction. Apparently, it is. Given Gorman's highest home run projection is for 30 homers, maybe 40 is a stretch. The majority of projections have Gorman playing no more than 130 games so a full season of health should see Gorman touch 40 homers. I'm not one for "the best shape of his life" rhetoric. But if a man is willing to sacrifice his favorite popcorn, I'm all ears!

Seemingly the only thing standing between Nolan Gorman and a 30-HR season is a healthy back. With that in mind, the #STLCards slugger took every measure to ensure success in 2024, including dropping 10 pounds and changing to a different brand of popcorn. https://t.co/Z8pwiCSYPu

— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 22, 2024

In all seriousness, if Gorman can stay healthy and rid himself of back issues, he should play ~150 games. He hit 27 homers in 119 games last year so simple extrapolation would mean ~34 homers over 150 games. It wouldn't take much more for Gorman to top the 40-home run mark. I believe in the power and quality of contact (48.5% HardHit% and 16.5% Barrel%). Gorman will at least lead second basemen in homers this year.

Nelson Velazquez

Also hits 40 homers this year

There doesn't seem to be much doubting Velazquez's power. After hitting 17 homers in 53 MLB games last year, Velazquez's ATC projection is for 23 homers in 2024. That's in just 102 games. Prior to his promotion to the Cubs last year (before he was traded to the Royals), he hit 16 homers in 74 Triple-A games. Despite Kauffman Stadium being one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks, Velazquez hit 14 homers in 40 games with the Royals.

He's expected to primarily be the designated hitter for the Royals. Salvador Perez will DH too so the Royals can keep him fresh. But if Velazquez hits to start the season, the Royals will find plenty of at-bats for him. They're not exactly flush with outfield options so he could see more playing time in the field too. Regardless of where he plays, Velazquez's power will be on display and he'll match Gorman for 40 home runs.

Evan Phillips

Will get 40 saves and end the year as the number-one fantasy reliever

Phillips has been going as the RP14 in drafts this season. Given he's the closer on arguably the best team in baseball, that seems like he's being undervalued. Add in the fact Phillips has a 1.59 ERA over the last two seasons (124.1 IP) and it seems egregious that he isn't being drafted earlier. Perhaps only tallying 24 saves last year is putting some fantasy managers off.

Dodgers relievers totaled 44 saves in 2023. That was largely down to them winning games by more than three runs. The Dodgers +207 run differential was second-best in baseball. They have added Shoehei Ohtani so on paper, will have a better offense. But their rotation has more question marks this year and that could help Phillips get more save opportunities. That's the only thing holding him back from being an elite fantasy reliever.

Cole Ragans

Will Record 200 Strikeouts

Following his trade from the Rangers, Ragans slipped into the Royals starting rotation and immediately became their ace. In 12 starts (71.2 IP), Ragans had a 5-2 W-L record, 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 89 Ks. He's already been named the Royals Opening Day starter and with very good reason.

Ragans had an 11.18 K/9 as a starter last year. Even if that regresses to ~10.50 K/9, Ragans would only need to total 172.0 IP to reach 200 strikeouts. In Triple-A last year, Ragans made seven starts (28.1 IP) and tallied 37 strikeouts (11.9 K/9). In 2022, Ragans made 18 starts (94.2 IP) and tallied 113 strikeouts (10.7 K/9). Ragans is set for a huge breakout in 2024 and 200 Ks is well within his capabilities.

Estevan Florial

Set to have a breakout with a 20/20 season

Possibly the boldest of my bold predictions. It feels like Florial has been a prospect forever. In reality, he's played a Major League game in each of the last four seasons. Florial has only totaled 48 games in those four seasons and has just one home run and six stolen bases to his name. But he has eye-catching Triple-A numbers and has an opportunity to be an everyday player in Cleveland.

In 280 Triple-A games, Florial has a 265/.358/.490 slash line with 56 homers and 77 stolen bases. With numbers like that, it's easy to see why I believe a 20 homer and 20 stolen base season is possible. Florial is in competition with Myles Straw for the starting center fielder job. With a new manager and new philosophy, the Guardians might well give Florial the chance to prove his Triple-A numbers can carry into the Majors.

We have acquired OF Estevan Florial from the Yankees in exchange for RHP Cody Morris.

Florial played 101 games in Triple-A in 2023, slashing .284/.380/.565 with 23 doubles, 28 home runs, and 79 runs batted in. He also stole 25 bases.

Welcome to Cleveland, Estevan!#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/ZqhXPEbIdy

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) December 26, 2023

Chicago White Sox

They will have the worst record in baseball

The trade of Dylan Cease has left the White Sox without any kind of starting rotation. Garrett Crochet might be good. Nick Nastrini and Drew Thorpe could be good. In reality, none are worth rostering in anything but deeper leagues. And their entire rotation could wind up with ERAs of ~5.00. I won't even mention the bullpen.

As for the offense, the White Sox have a top-heavy lineup. Top-heavy in that the bottom half of the order is a pitcher's dream. I do love Luis Robert Jr. I'm a big fan of Eloy Jimenez. I like the chances of Andrew Vaughn having a big year. But Jimenez can't stay healthy and there's no protection for the trio. They have some intriguing prospects and their future may be bright. But I wouldn't be shocked if the White Sox end up losing 120 games.

Cincinnati Reds

They will score 900 runs and win the National League Pennant

Scoring 900 runs in a season might not seem like many. However, it's something only the Braves and Dodgers have achieved in the last three seasons (both in 2023). It's also something that's only been done 23 times this century. The Reds have only achieved the feat twice in their history, the last time being in 1895.

Having the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball is finally about to pay off with so many young and exciting bats on their roster. Their starting rotation does have some holes in it. But that can be mitigated if they score enough runs. The Reds have been dealing with some injuries this Spring, but they also have enough depth to deal with it. While I believe they ultimately fall short of winning it all, it'll be a fun ride watching the Reds this year.

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