RADIO
I was reviewing the 2019 fantasy season results yesterday when I stumbled upon something that caught my attention. I filtered all of the players to log a game this past year by position, looked at running backs, and discovered that James White was the only RB inside the top-25 scorers at the position to have fewer than 165 opportunities (targets added to rushing attempts, of which White had 162 combined) to make it there.
That number, 165 opportunities, wouldn't be so surprising if another 10 running backs had finished within a reasonable distance of it (170, 175,...) but the truth is that the next-closest number of opportunities by a top-25 RB in 2019 was... 217 by Melvin Gordon! The difference is even higher if we factor in the games played by each rusher, as James White averaged just 10.9 opportunities per game while Gordon had 18.1 of them in his 12 games played.
This got me thinking about how sustainable is this kind of low-volume, high-scoring production for James White going forward, and if it was just a mirage and a one-off sort of year for the veteran running back. I know me, and I can't sleep with these unsolved mysteries in mind, so I went on to crunch the numbers.
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James White's Career In Context
White's already been a long-time NFL player. This past season marked his sixth year as a pro, all of them playing for the Patriots, and although he didn't do much as a rookie (he played just three games) he's thrived since. Here are White's last five seasons.
As you see, there hasn't been a year White hasn't had at least a game playing at RB1 level, and he's been an RB1/RB2 in almost half (48%) of his total games played. That virtual 50/50 split isn't that great, but consider White's usage during that same span and your views of the veteran might start to change.
Just in case you don't have the proper knowledge, keep in mind that RB1/RB2 players often play way more than just 42% of their team's offensive snaps. Even Phillip Lindsay, on a shared backfield in Denver last season (along with Royce Freeman) played 50% of the snaps. James White's 493 offensive snaps in 2019 ranked 27th in the league and went for a 42.6% of New England's total.
That's James White in a nutshell. A low-usage tailback with tons of production packed in him, and all thanks to his pass-catching ability.
James White's 2019 Season
So let's get to what actually itched me in the first place, White's 2019 season. To get things kickstarted, here is how the top-24 (RB1 and RB2) looked like this past season in terms of opportunities per game and points per opportunity.
The only two players to get a better average PPR/Opp than White in 2019 were Dare Ogunbowale (1.36, but in just 57 opportunities) and Austin Ekeler (1.3 in 240).
White also ranked first in EP/Opp by more than 0.05 points over second-place Tarik Cohen. Here is how the running backs in the data set already introduced did in terms of FPOE/Opp.
Up to 18 players were more efficient than White given their chances and expectations, which at the end of the day virtually aligns with White's WR20 rank at the end of the season.
What Can We Make of James White Profile Going Forward?
All of this research helped me understand a little bit better White's current ADP of RB34 in best ball drafts and why he seemed to be going a little under the radar. The fact is, White isn't that good even while he achieved great results in 2019 for the low volume he saw go his way. But same as White, there are a bunch of running backs (some of them already mentioned above) with a similar set of abilities and usage that fantasy owners can take advantage of.
I've looked at White's production over the years to see if it's been similar year to year, or if his career averages and profile are just a product of putting together a few very different sets of performances.
Turns out the former thought was the right one. White has always averaged fewer than 14 opportunities per game yet he's always scored more than 1.15 PPR per opportunity. He is the only player since 2015 to have logged at least 75 opportunities every season with those averages. Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, and Duke Johnson are the only other running backs with multiple seasons (two each) averaging 1.15 PPR/Opp in the past five years. Those numbers pale compared to White's five years doing so!
Pretty much the same has happened with the situations he's been put into and how efficiently he's solved most of them. In fact, things get much crazier if looked at it this way:
- Since 2015, there have been just 32 RB-seasons in which the player has averaged at least 1.0 EP/Opp
- Of those 32, only 16 times did the running back overperformed the EP/Opp with a positive FPOE/Opp.
- Of those 16 RB-seasons, five (31%) of them belong to James White. The only other running back with two such years is Duke Johnson.
It is hard to find historical comparisons to what he's done in his career to the letter. That being said, though, it's easy to find similar players handed the same type of opportunities and used on low-volume schemes to maximize their exploits.
White's 2020 Outlook, Price, and Alternatives
First things first, White is probably not going to win you the league, as he hasn't done in any of his six years playing NFL football. White's best season finish happened in 2018 when he finished WR7 (276.6 PPR). He dropped to RB18 last season and other than that he only has another top-25 season (RB25 in 2016).
The good thing about White's game, though, is that it is overly efficient and the per-opportunity production he always put together is way over the board. New England's offense might take a turn next season with Tom Brady entering his final year(s) assuming he's back and the receiving corps lacking talent all around the place.
Last season, Sony Michel completely blasted James White in opportunities with 267 compared to White's 162. Even with that, though, Michel produced 0.56 PPR/Opp to White's 1.15 and could only finish the year as the RB31 with 152.6 PPR. The slightest of upticks in usage could put White even higher than where he found himself last season, and given how Michel performed in 2019 compared to White on a per-opportunity basis it wouldn't be crazy to think a change in roles might be coming with White being used more heavily.
White's current ADP of 80.4 is only 18.8 positions ahead of Michel's, yet the gap in production well merits the investment on the former. Age might not be on White's side, with him entering his age-28 season already, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem considering how steady White's production has been over the years.
It's hard to envision White getting to 200 opportunities, let alone touches, any time soon. If you like this type of player but are aware of the risks it carries (low winning percentage) you probably want cheaper options than White for 2020. These are some other RBs with lower ADPs as of this writing that have logged fewer than 200 opportunities during the past five years on average, yet still produced close to 200 PPR or over 12 PPG, again on average, in that span.
Only three players are ahead of White in ADP when filtering the players by the 10/200 PPG/Opp averages during the past five seasons. Below him, options such as Tarik Cohen (RB40), Tevin Coleman (RB42) and Duke Johnson (RB50) come much cheaper (Cohen is being drafted almost two full rounds after White, Coleman almost three, and Johnson almost six) while presenting similar profiles and roles in their offenses (pass-catching RB2). Dion Lewis and T.J. Yeldon are absolute fliers considering their situations, though. Lewis' value is dependent on whether Derrick Henry returns to Tennessee, and T.J. Yeldon may see more touches with Frank Gore gone in Buffalo, but that assumes they don't add another veteran.
If you want the safest of players of this group, then White should be your call. If you prefer a low-volume, high-upside player similar to White but cheaper and not worth too much, then any of Cohen, Coleman, and Johnson will be good enough to fill your needs--at a pretty steep discount.
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