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BALLER MOVE: Start in 12+ Team Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: Low-end RB2
ANALYSIS: At first glance, this is a tough matchup. Arizona’s offensive line is a weakness and Buffalo’s defense has been stout. However, per FTN Fantasy, Buffalo only ranked 17th in defensive rush DVOA in 2023. Arizona’s offense struggled last year, but the one thing they did well down the stretch was run the football.
The Cardinals ranked 2nd in Rush EPA/play after Kyler Murray returned from injury last season (Week 10 on).
Drew Petzing used heavy personnel, took advantage of Murray's rushing ability, and James Connor led the league in broken tackles and yards after contact during that time pic.twitter.com/b9dOXHgsIV
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) June 14, 2024
Buffalo’s run defense was also vulnerable to big plays in 2023. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Buffalo gave up the fifth most Explosive Rushing Yards (runs that go for 15+ yards).
Conner could take advantage. Among rushers with 100+ attempts, he finished seventh in Explosive Run % and Explosive Rush Yards.
James Conner ties it up!
📺: #SEAvsAZ on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/8lawpsuYwD— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Things get complicated for Arizona from a schematic standpoint though. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Arizona ran the seventh most man/gap concept run plays last year and finished with a 47.8% success rate. Buffalo defended man/gap run plays very well a year ago and only allowed a 38.2% success rate. The loss of star linebacker Matt Milano is significant, but Buffalo still defended man/gap runs very well without him (38.9% success rate).
This is a game where Conner could have a surprise spike game, but it’s a tough schematic matchup. If Arizona keeps the score close, then Conner could find success with splash plays.
Start him as an RB2 if needed, but he’s a better Flex play as this feels like a boom/bust type of matchup.
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