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James Conner - Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Fantasy Football Picks

James Conner - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

BALLER MOVE: Start in 12+ Team Leagues

POSITIONAL VALUE: Low-end RB2

ANALYSIS: At first glance, this is a tough matchup. Arizona’s offensive line is a weakness and Buffalo’s defense has been stout. However, per FTN Fantasy, Buffalo only ranked 17th in defensive rush DVOA in 2023. Arizona’s offense struggled last year, but the one thing they did well down the stretch was run the football.

Buffalo’s run defense was also vulnerable to big plays in 2023. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Buffalo gave up the fifth most Explosive Rushing Yards (runs that go for 15+ yards).

Conner could take advantage. Among rushers with 100+ attempts, he finished seventh in Explosive Run % and Explosive Rush Yards.

Things get complicated for Arizona from a schematic standpoint though. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Arizona ran the seventh most man/gap concept run plays last year and finished with a 47.8% success rate. Buffalo defended man/gap run plays very well a year ago and only allowed a 38.2% success rate. The loss of star linebacker Matt Milano is significant, but Buffalo still defended man/gap runs very well without him (38.9% success rate).

This is a game where Conner could have a surprise spike game, but it’s a tough schematic matchup. If Arizona keeps the score close, then Conner could find success with splash plays.

Start him as an RB2 if needed, but he’s a better Flex play as this feels like a boom/bust type of matchup.

 

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