BALLER MOVE: Start in 12+ Team Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: Low-end RB2
ANALYSIS: At first glance, this is a tough matchup. Arizona’s offensive line is a weakness and Buffalo’s defense has been stout. However, per FTN Fantasy, Buffalo only ranked 17th in defensive rush DVOA in 2023. Arizona’s offense struggled last year, but the one thing they did well down the stretch was run the football.
The Cardinals ranked 2nd in Rush EPA/play after Kyler Murray returned from injury last season (Week 10 on).
Drew Petzing used heavy personnel, took advantage of Murray's rushing ability, and James Connor led the league in broken tackles and yards after contact during that time pic.twitter.com/b9dOXHgsIV
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) June 14, 2024
Buffalo’s run defense was also vulnerable to big plays in 2023. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Buffalo gave up the fifth most Explosive Rushing Yards (runs that go for 15+ yards).
Conner could take advantage. Among rushers with 100+ attempts, he finished seventh in Explosive Run % and Explosive Rush Yards.
James Conner ties it up!
📺: #SEAvsAZ on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/8lawpsuYwD— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Things get complicated for Arizona from a schematic standpoint though. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Arizona ran the seventh most man/gap concept run plays last year and finished with a 47.8% success rate. Buffalo defended man/gap run plays very well a year ago and only allowed a 38.2% success rate. The loss of star linebacker Matt Milano is significant, but Buffalo still defended man/gap runs very well without him (38.9% success rate).
This is a game where Conner could have a surprise spike game, but it’s a tough schematic matchup. If Arizona keeps the score close, then Conner could find success with splash plays.
Start him as an RB2 if needed, but he’s a better Flex play as this feels like a boom/bust type of matchup.
More Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks
Demario Douglas - Week 3 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks
BALLER MOVE: Sit in all leagues POSITIONAL VALUE: WR7 ANALYSIS: Flashes of potential in his rookie season aren't paying out for Demario Douglas in year two. The former sixth-round pick caught 49 passes for 561 yards in his first year. By the middle of the season, he routinely played over 70% of the snaps, even […]
Tyler Conklin – Week 3 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks
BALLER MOVE: Sit in All Leagues POSITIONAL VALUE: TE23 ANALYSIS: New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin was a deep sleeper candidate entering the season. The veteran tight end had 87 targets last year, the third-most on the team, behind Garrett Wilson (168) and Breece Hall (95). Some thought Conklin could have a career season […]
Allen Lazard – Week 3 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks
BALLER MOVE: Sit in All Leagues POSITIONAL VALUE: WR78 ANALYSIS: New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard was a popular waiver wire target after Week 1. The veteran wide receiver had six receptions on nine targets for 89 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling 23.9 half-point PPR fantasy points. He […]
Rhamondre Stevenson – Week 3 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks
BALLER MOVE: Start in 10+ Team Leagues POSITIONAL VALUE: RB20 ANALYSIS: New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the top fantasy running backs this season. The former Oklahoma star is the RB9, averaging 18.1 half-point PPR fantasy points. He has had at least 21 rushing attempts for 81 yards and a […]
Jacoby Brissett – Week 3 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks
BALLER MOVE: Start in 12+ Team Superflex Leagues POSITIONAL VALUE: QB32 ANALYSIS: New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett has never been a fantasy star. He is the QB28 for the season, averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game. The veteran has 270 passing yards and one touchdown this year. However, Brissett has played well despite having […]