Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) - 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~72 Overall

CURRENT ADP: ~84

ANALYSIS: 

Running quarterbacks have been called a cheat code but they’re more like the clearest path to success. You’re not cheating if you grab one or two of them -- you’re cheating yourself if you don’t. And the fantasy math is far too obvious to be a code. Jalen Hurts, entering his second year, might be the most undervalued dual-threat. He showed what he can do as a starter at the end of 2020, spurring the Eagles to trade Carson Wentz.

Ignore the first three-quarters of last season, when Hurts was still learning the offense. Once he became the starter, he averaged 23 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks. In a full year, that would have put him above Russell Wilson and almost at Deshaun Watson’s level.

This could be another case where such extrapolation isn’t crazy. Much of Hurts’ late-season value came from the 68 yards a game he averaged on the ground, a skill that stabilizes his fantasy floor. Even in his worst game as a starter, he scored a respectable 16.3 fantasy points. Though his passing-efficiency metrics were ugly, they should be evaluated against his aggressive depth-of-target numbers. What’s more, young running QBs often sharply improve their accuracy as they adjust to facing pro defenses, notes ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. Hurts gets a favorable environment to do just that, with an offensive line due for better health, likely year-two improvement from slot receiver Jalen Reagor, and a new top weapon in first-round draft choice DeVonta Smith.

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