RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~118 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~149
ANALYSIS: Jakobi Meyers, 26, had a career year with New England in 2022. He caught 67 passes for 804 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 13 PPR points per week. He missed two games with a knee injury early in the year and missed Week 14 with a concussion. He then dealt with a shoulder injury that never kept him off the field. However, it made him a frequent flyer on the injury report.
Meyers has better skills than many give him credit for. This is perhaps because of his undrafted free agent status coming into the league, or his mostly unproductive rookie year.
In 2022, he placed 23rd among all wide receivers with 1.9 yards per route run. Pro Football Focus asserts that YPRR provides “a better indicator of production than yards per reception or even yards per target.” He also ranked 29th among all receivers with a 75.8 receiving score from PFF.
Remember, all of this occurred in the context of the horrible New England offense of 2022 led by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. This year, Meyers will be involved in a Las Vegas Raiders offense that will be led by Josh McDaniels, who ran the Patriots' offense for the first three years of Meyers’ career.
Last season, Meyers lined up for most of his snaps from the slot, where he has always been oversized at 6’2”, 203 pounds. This year, the Raiders have two true slot receivers in Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Carter. Meyers could get a boost in production if he gets more snaps on the outside opposite the ultra-talented Davante Adams, who always commands extra attention from defenders.
The Raiders passing game as a whole has a chance to be more productive in fantasy this year. They’ve replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo, which should be an improvement. Garoppolo’s career touchdown percentage of five percent is better than Carr’s (and for that matter, Meyers’ old quarterback, Mac Jones).
Garoppolo is also much more accurate with the football than Carr. Carr ranked fourth-worst in the league in Bad Throw Percentage, only better than Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Marcus Mariota, and tied with Carson Wentz. Garoppolo, by comparison, was the sixth-best among qualifiers at 12.7%. Garoppolo also beats Carr in On-Target Percentage, with 74.5% to 71.8%.
Granted, Meyers’ true “breakout” year may have already happened in 2022. However, there are enough reasons to believe he still hasn’t hit his fantasy ceiling.
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