RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~82
CURRENT ADP: ~141
ANALYSIS: A fairly obvious candidate for this list, but his ADP is still too way too high compared to the value expected. I had Lamb 16th among third basemen in our 2016 preseason rankings, higher than any of the half-dozen colleagues who participated. His solid minor league performances were backed up by some impressive MLB peripherals, even if the results to that point had been underwhelming. Ultimately, I pegged him as a solid CI option in deeper mixers, while his ADP sat in the 400s. Lamb proceeded to destroy everyone’s expectations, hitting .302/.380/.635 with 21 homers through July 17. Unfortunately, he suffered a hand injury and saw his production crater.
There’s no doubt that Lamb was adversely affected by the injury. He had a lot more trouble making contact with pitches up and in as a result, which makes sense. A hand bruise would likely compromise his bat speed, leaving him unable to turn on pitches on the inner half. Sure enough, he went from pulling the ball over half of the time to pulling it a third of the time.
It’s worth pointing out that Lamb was almost certainly due for some regression anyway. He ran a 28.8 HR/FB% before the injury, which would have tied him with Ryan Braun for the league lead in that category. Obviously, however, his health was a key factor in his stumble down the stretch. Despite that second-half swoon, he still finished eighth among third basemen per FantasyPros’ Player Rater. Owners can reasonably expect a similar performance in 2017, making him a great draft value.
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