RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Consider in all leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: TE1
ANALYSIS: Trivia time!
Who leads the NFL in red zone targets? If you guessed Jake Ferguson, because the article is about him, you'd be wrong. He is second, however, behind his teammate CeeDee Lamb. The tight end is also second when you shrink the field to within the 10-yard line.
His five touchdowns, all from within the 20, have helped propel Ferguson to being the TE9 as we enter Week 16. It helps playing for the second-highest-scoring offense in the league.
The matchup against Miami is of little concern. The Dolphins are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the last four weeks, but that's come against Tyler Conklin (twice), Logan Thomas, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Not exactly the murderer's row of tight ends. When examining the season as a whole, they're a middle-of-the-pack defense against the position.
The primary red flag for Ferguson is the play of his quarterback, Dak Prescott. He's undefeated in Arlington, throwing for over 300 yards per game. On the road, that number tanks down to 216, with an 8:5 touchdown to interception ratio. Ferguson's numbers don't drop as dramatically as his quarterback's does, but he's averaging 11 fewer yards. Just one of his touchdowns has come on the road.
| Home | Road | |
| Dak Prescott | 303.6 yards, 20:2 TD:INT | 216.3 yards, 8:5 TD:INT |
| Jake Ferguson | 4.28 receptions, 49.3 yards | 3.85 receptions, 38.4 yards |
After the embarrassment Dallas displayed in Buffalo, I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from the offense. They are too good of a unit to keep grounded two weeks in a row. Ferguson is in a great spot as a low-end TE1 with strong touchdown potential.
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