RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~187 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~175
ANALYSIS:
UPDATE: Dotson was dealt to the Eagles, where his fantasy value takes a major hit as he's now the WR3 in an offense that already has a number of mouths to feed. His value in Washington was attached to the idea that he could emerge as the secondary option for Jayden Daniels after Terry McLaurin, but now that he is in Philly, he's really only worth a look in deep leagues as a flyer.
After a solid rookie campaign, Dotson struggled to find success in his sophomore season. But it wasn’t all his fault. Per PlayerProfiler, his target quality rating and catchable target rate ranked 75th and 67th, respectively, among wide receivers. The Commanders’ offense was a train wreck last season. That could all change this season with a new head coach (Dan Quinn), offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury), and quarterback (Jayden Daniels) in Washington.
Despite the lackluster second season, Harmon still believes in Dotson as a “rock-solid No. 2 receiver.” If you look at his Reception Perception chart, it’s easy to see why that’s the case.
Another reason to be in on Dotson in 2024 is the absence of Curtis Samuel. Samuel ran nearly 69% of his routes from the slot last season. According to Harmon, that’s where Dotson can thrive. He even compared his trajectory to guys like Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin, who both found a lot of success playing in the slot throughout their careers. Check out what Dotson did in the games without Samuel last season:
Jahan Dotson in three games Curtis Samuel either missed or left early last season (per game):
- 7.3 targets
- 66.7 yards
- 1 touchdown
- 86.3 air yardsHe’ll have a real opportunity to bounce back this season and he’s essentially free in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 6, 2024
So we’ve established Dotson is at least a good receiver in the NFL. So what happens if Daniels is the next greatest NFL quarterback? It’s within the range of outcomes, given what we’ve seen so far from him at training camp and his first preseason game.
With an ADP of just WR66, Dotson is one of the lowest-risk, highest-reward picks you can make this season. In Kingsbury’s four seasons as Arizona’s head coach, the Cardinals attempted an average of 36 passes per game. The league median last season was around 34 pass attempts per game. If this offense takes a step forward in 2024, it’s easy to see the Commanders’ locked-and-loaded WR2 also take a step forward this season.
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