Jaguars vs. Bills (London): Week 5 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk

Welcome to our Jaguars vs. Bills fantasy football start 'em, sit' em matchups analysis article for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.

Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (London)

Spread: Bills -5.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (21.5) vs. Bills (27)
Pace: Jaguars (17th) vs. Bills (32nd)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -15.6% Pass (16h), -14.9% Rush (22nd)
Bills Off. DVOA: 59.0% Pass (3rd), 2.0% Rush (8th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 5.3% Pass (15th), -21.2% Rush (7th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -34.6% Pass (2nd), -16.2% Rush (11th)

Matchups We Love

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

Buffalo made a statement against Miami, led by the masterful outing by Allen. Whether from an NFL perspective or a fantasy perspective, he was the QB1. While five total touchdowns are a bit lofty, finishing as the QB1 against the Jaguars is a possible outcome.

Josh Allen is in legendary company 🙌 pic.twitter.com/bg59eIcduO

— PFF (@PFF) October 6, 2023

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

Typically a target hog, Diggs decided to share the wealth this week. Allen threw a pass to nine different players. However, the production went almost entirely to Diggs, who went nuclear for 120 yards and a hat trick of touchdowns. He and Allen are currently the best stack for fantasy. Gabe Davis found pay dirt early in this one before quieting down. He has scored in three straight games with 14 targets over that span. It's not an ideal matchup because the Bills should dominate, but with bye weeks starting, he's an upside flex play.

James Cook (RB, BUF)

Cook broke the trend this week, carrying the ball three consecutive times from inside the 10-yard line, the last of which was a one-yard trot into the end zone. It's a great sign for his usage. If he can add that element to his role as the lead back, his fantasy stock will soar. Jacksonville's run defense has improved, but they just gave up 100-plus yards to Bijan Robinson last week. Plus the Bills are likely to be leading much of the game.

James Cook is in!

📺: #MIAvsBUF on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Jq9JHUeqb6 pic.twitter.com/y2bwvIrdkl

— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2023

Matchups We Hate

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)

As mentioned in the introduction, the Jaguars are playing host in London yet again. This time it's the Bills traveling overseas, which is bad news for Lawrence and Co. They were mediocre against Atlanta, but it didn't matter because the Falcons can't pass the ball. They scored one offensive touchdown and totaled 300 yards of offense. There's no reason to trust him against Buffalo.

Other Matchups

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

The fireworks ended prematurely because Miami didn't hold up their end of the bargain. It was 31-14 at halftime, allowing the Bills to focus on their run game. 25 passing attempts from Allen ties his lowest mark from all of 2022, and it's the lowest in 2023. The fact that Kincaid earned a 20% target share is a positive takeaway. He remains in the top 12.

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

Engram kept his eight-target streak alive, hauling in seven catches for 59 yards. At the tight end position, he's about as reliable as they come. It's not an ideal matchup, but he's too good to push outside the top 10.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)

Similar story here. The Bills have been pretty stout on the majority of their opponent's carries, but they often give up a chunk play to explosive backs. Etienne fits that description well with two breakaway runs (15-plus yards) this year after ripping off 18 of them last season, which was the fourth-most. It's also beneficial that he's being utilized as a receiver, averaging over three receptions per contest. He remains in the top 20.

Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)

Kirk gets the nod here as the presumptive alpha receiver. If you ignore his first game, he's averaged almost eight receptions for 81 yards, picking up right where he left off in 2022. He's a top-24 volume-based receiver.

Trevor Lawrence passes to Christian Kirk for a 30 yard gain vs the #Falcons pic.twitter.com/1itiPU6A10

— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhiferNFL) October 1, 2023

Calvin Ridley confirmed our priors in Week 1 but has since disappeared. His target share and production have steadily decreased each week, with the exception of a touchdown against Atlanta. Outside of that 30-yard connection, he caught his only other target for eight yards. The Bills did lose Tre'Davious White for the season, but Ridley is still hard to trust as more than a top-36 option with a low floor.

UPDATE: Jones is listed as questionable for Sunday's matchup. It's hard to tell whether he'll suit up at this point. His presence wouldn't mean you start him, but it would mean more risk of losing snaps for Kirk and Ridley.

Notable Injuries

Zay Jones (knee)

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