Jacksonville Jaguars Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Jacksonville Jaguars as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The Jaguars' offense, while not bad, left something to be desired last year. Trevor Lawrence and most of their pass-catchers failed to live up to expectations. Lawrence and Christian Kirk struggled with injuries, and Calvin Ridley struggled with drops and missed opportunities. Ridley and Zay Jones are now gone, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis have since replaced them. Getting Lawrence and Kirk healthy will likely improve their offense, and the additions could be a positive overall.

There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. Be sure to bookmark our fantasy football ADP page for the latest industry consensus ADPs. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our Premium fantasy football packages. Our Premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our Premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Trevor Lawrence: QB17, ADP 103

We will need to have a real, honest discussion about Lawrence. By now, you’ve likely seen all these pictures of Lawrence’s first 50 starts compared to Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, and Gardner Minshew. It’s all just noise and clearly with a narrative-pushing purpose-driven engagement rather than honest discussion. So, let’s have an honest debate, shall we?

The truth is, Lawrence didn’t have a chance during his rookie season. His coach, Urban Meyer, is in the running for one of the worst NFL coaching jobs in history. He was fired midseason, creating a toxic working environment where everyone struggled. His No. 1 receiver that year was the 31-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. His second leading receiver was Laviska Shenault Jr. Shenault is on his third team in five years and could very well find himself unemployed by the time the 2024 season starts. He has 1,551 receiving yards in four seasons, roughly 388 per season. He’s terrible. His No. 3 receiver was Laquon Treadwell. Treadwell has 1,242 yards in eight seasons and has been on five teams. He's worse than Shenault!

Indeed, Danny Dimes, Mac Jones, and Minshew didn’t have a great support system in their rookie seasons; the critical part is what’s happened since then. Yes, Lawrence was terrible as a rookie. Yes, he’s got a pretty darn good reason for that. However, in years two and three, Lawrence has thrown 4,000+ yards and 21+ touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. Danny Dimes has never had more than 3,250 yards in a season. Mac Jones has never had more than 3,810 yards in a season and hasn’t been over 3,000 since his rookie season. Minshew has never been over 3,325. The fact is these are bad, lazy, and disingenuous comparisons, and what's worse, those making them know it. If we compare Lawrence’s second and third seasons, Dak Prescott seems to be a perfect comparison. How do you feel about Prescott? Please take a look at the statistics for their second and third seasons.

Let’s switch gears and talk fantasy football for a second because, in 2022, Lawrence finished as the QB12 with an 18.3 PPG average. He did that despite finishing 18th in touchdown rate. He was seventh in pass attempts, eighth in red zone pass attempts, and eighth in expected passing touchdowns, but he finished just 18th in touchdown rate. His expected passing touchdowns were 30.5, but he finished with just 25. Lawrence left some meat on the bone and still finished as a top-12 quarterback.

This past season, you can, and many people have put together a mix tape of all the near-miss touchdowns between Lawrence and his pass-catchers. In the particular one below, there are 15. Some are Lawrence’s fault for waiting a bit too long. Some are clear drops. Some of the receivers failed to get two feet down. But if just half of them go Lawrence’s way, he has seven more touchdowns and would finish with 28. If just 26% went his way, he’d have four more touchdowns and finish with 25. Take a look for yourself…

Trevor Lawrence near miss touchdowns pic.twitter.com/3tl8vK3VT5

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 9, 2024

We’re going to stay in 2023 for a little bit longer. Lawrence was banged up last season. He played through multiple ailments. On October 15th, he suffered a knee bruise. On December 4th, he sustained a high ankle sprain. On December 17th, he was placed in concussion protocol. On December 24th, he sprained his A/C joint in his throwing shoulder. On top of his injuries, Christian Kirk missed five games, and Zay Jones missed eight. It’s fairly reasonable to expect all of those injuries to impact performance. However, Lawrence still looked fantastic on film! The box score doesn’t tell the whole story because of the dropped passes, but look at this below…

Trevor Lawrence charting profile is live!

Lawrence is the latest young quarterback to cash in with a big-time deal, but were the Jaguars right to give him that kind of money?

(Yes. Obviously yes. Why was this ever even sort of a question?)https://t.co/1ybCqrhKfe pic.twitter.com/CL7UQXGD8u

— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) June 18, 2024

Looking forward to 2024, Lawrence may have the best collection of pass-catchers he’s ever had. Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, and Gabriel Davis are a fantastic foursome, and their skills complement each other well. Davis and Thomas will work the intermediate to deep part of the field, while Kirk and Engram work in the short to intermediate part. Lawrence will have plenty of options. They’ve also upgraded their offensive line with the free-agent signing of center Mitch Morse.

Lawrence also has sneaky rushing upside. Since 2022, he ranks eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 630 and fourth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Along with the bonus of rushing value, Lawrence has also thrown the fourth-most passes since 2022. He’s an above-average rushing quarterback with elite passing volume. He’s healthy. He’s received upgrades in his offensive line and his pass-catchers.

Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.

On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)

Trevor Lawrence ranked:

9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage https://t.co/lCLquYaSLR

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 14, 2024

On top of that, he’s due for some major positive regression in the touchdown department and his deep ball completion percentage, as evidenced above. No quarterback has been hurt by dropped passes more than Lawrence in the past few years. Consider for a second, what if Lawrence’s touchdown and dropped passes bad luck regresses to the mean? Now, take one tiny step further: what if Lawrence’s bad luck regarding touchdowns and dropped passes doesn’t just revert to average luck but good luck? What if the touchdowns run hot?

No QB suffered more because of drops last season than Trevor Lawrence 📉 https://t.co/UZW0MBSqwX pic.twitter.com/mESqZsQCuZ

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) June 14, 2024

Last year, 61.6% of offensive touchdowns were via the pass. 38.4% were via the run. In 2023, Jacksonville had just 56.4% of their touchdowns scored via the pass. There are countless examples to buy into Lawrence throwing more touchdowns in 2024. The best part, he's already shown us what he's capable of. From Weeks 10-17 in 2022, he averaged 21.0 PPG and was QB5 during this stretch. From Weeks 11-17 this past season, he averaged 21.5 PPG and was QB6. Due to injuries and bad luck, it hasn't all got put together for one season, but the upside is there. He's shown it to us. It was just in 2022 where he finished as the QB12. Fantasy managers have a significant buying opportunity.

Verdict: Buy Trevor Lawrence

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlooks

Travis Etienne Jr.: RB9, ADP 27
Tank Bigsby: RB67, ADP 207

In recent years, we’ve had to adjust our thinking of what a workhorse running back looks like nowadays. Some will argue they’re mostly extinct. Based on how we defined them back in the early 2000s, they most certainly are, but definitions change constantly. However, last year, Etienne was a workhorse based on any era’s definition. He played 73% of the team’s snaps, the sixth-highest among running backs. He averaged 19.1 touches per game, seventh-most. Those are numbers we don’t see anymore.

Not surprisingly, that all translated to an elite fantasy season, with Etienne finishing as the RB5 with a 15.1 half-PPR PPG average. On an efficiency basis, Etienne took a sizable step back in 2023, but such an increase in touches can explain some of that. For fantasy, Etienne made up for that by scoring touchdowns—a lot more touchdowns.

In 2022, he scored five touchdowns on 255 touches, a 1.96% touchdown rate. This past season, he scored 12 touchdowns on 325 touches, a 3.69% touchdown rate. In 2022, his expected touchdown total was 9.6, 4.6 higher than his final tally. This past season, his scheduled touchdown total was 7.9, 4.1 lower than his final tally. So, we’ve seen him run a little hot and a little cold in the touchdown department.

Etienne finished with 39 red zone carries (12th-most), 11 carries inside the 5-yard line (17th), and 42 total red zone touches (15th). He finished with 12 total touchdowns despite that utilization, ranking sixth among running backs. Given his solid touch totals, it’s not surprising to see Etienne outplay his red zone utilization regarding overall touchdowns. Still, fantasy managers should expect him to score between 8 and 10 touchdowns in 2024, a slight dip from his 2023 mark.

As we talked about previously, on some level, Etienne's efficiency decreased in 2023. However, please pay attention to his yards before-contact per attempt average in the last two seasons. You'll notice that it dipped by 1.3 yards this past season. However, Etienne was more efficient in yards created per touch, juke rate, and attempts per broken tackle. His offensive line did him no favors this past season. In 2022, PFF's final offensive line rankings had Jacksonville ranked 18th. This past season, they dropped to 27th. They had nine players log over 150 snaps, and there was little consistency due to injuries and suspensions. Adding veteran Mitch Morse at the center should bring much-needed leadership and dependability.

Biggest dropoffs in 2022 team rushing yards BEFORE contact per carry vs. 2023:

1. Jaguars (-1.2)
2. Giants (-0.64)

I am not a doctor, but probably the primary reason why Travis Etienne (5.1 YPC in 2022 vs. 3.8 in 2023) and Saquon Barkley (4.4 vs. 3.9) fell off hard last season.

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 15, 2024

Touchdowns weren't the only area where Etienne improved his game for fantasy purposes; he also got more involved in the passing game. In 2022, he had a 7.8% target share, a 41.1% route participation rate, and averaged 2.6 targets per game. All of those numbers increased in 2023. He finished with a 12.1% target share, 54.3% route participation rate, and 4.3 targets per game. Based on Bigsby's dreadful play as a rookie, there's virtually no reason to expect his past involvement to change.

However, the coaching staff has been vocal about getting Bigsby more involved in his second season and decreasing Etienne's workload. Given how significant Etienne's workload was last year, fantasy managers should have expected this regardless of who the No. 2 running back ended up being. This isn't necessarily a bad thing for Etienne. Bigsby is unlikely to take away any targets or routes away from Etienne. He may vulture 1-2 more touchdowns than he did last year, but most of Bigsby's increased role will come on runs between the tackles and between the two 20-yard lines. Etienne will still command most of the running back targets and red zone touches, which are the most important for his fantasy value.

If nothing else, this gives fantasy managers a clearly defined handcuff to target if you're drafting Etienne, and due to his abysmal rookie season, it's an incredibly cheap handcuff. Bigsby is routinely available in the 16th and 17th rounds. With his contingent value in the event of an Etienne injury, the reward significantly outweighs the risks, of which there are none. If you're an Etienne owner, "reaching" for Bigsby a round or two earlier makes a ton of sense because of how cheap he is already.

Last year, Etienne finished with a 13.5 expected half-PPR PPG average, ranking 12th among running backs. A few guys behind him, such as Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Derrick Henry, will surely see their workload increase. A few guys, like Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard, will fall behind Etienne. Etienne's price feels pretty fair. If you can get him in the RB10-RB12 range, that's the sweet spot, but that's nit-picking. An RB9 positional ranking is his market value, while Bigsby is an easy buy.

Verdict: Fair  Price on Travis Etienne and Buy Tank Bigsby

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlooks

Christian Kirk: WR31, ADP 58
Brian Thomas Jr.: WR49, ADP 108
Gabe Davis: WR61, ADP 142

Jacksonville has quite a bit of transition at receiver this offseason. They’ve lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones but have brought in Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis. Last year, Ridley had 132 targets (15th-most), 76 receptions (23rd), 1,016 yards (24th), eight touchdowns (tied for seventh), 40 red zone targets (fourth), and 22 end zone targets (tied for first). Jones chipped in with an additional 62 targets, 34 receptions, 321 yards, two touchdowns, 17 red zone targets, and six end zone targets. There is ample opportunity for grabs in Jacksonville, and Thomas is the most likely beneficiary.

To explain why it’s Thomas, we’ll talk about why it’s not Davis. He’s run over 500 routes in the past two seasons and was in the top 24 for routes run in 2022 and 2023. However, Davis had only 81 targets this past season and 92 in 2022. Among 80 receivers with at least 50 targets, Davis was just 61st in targets per game last season. He had a very pedestrian 14.9% target share and a 14.6% target rate last season.

He’s played with Josh Allen for the past two seasons. Allen has thrown for 8,589 yards and 64 touchdowns on 1,146 attempts during that time. Davis has had little to no real target competition behind Stefon Diggs for both seasons. However, Davis has never had 95 targets, 50 receptions, or 850 yards.

Davis scored 514 of 746 total receiving yards in his five best games last season, which means he had just 232 yards in his remaining 12. He caught 31 of his 45 receptions in those five games, roughly 69% of his overall total. He had less than 25 yards in seven games last season. Davis is a better real-life football player than a fantasy one. His downfield ability forces defenses from stacking the box, and he’s a willing run-blocker. For fantasy, he’s an easy sell.

That makes Thomas our wild card and the player we want to target. We know who Kirk and Engram are. They’re solid but not elite players. We know who Davis is. A real-life football role player and a fantasy dud. This leaves plenty of room for Thomas to excel.

Thomas had 87 targets, 68 receptions, 1,177 yards, and 17 touchdowns. No player caught more touchdowns than he did. Among 126 collegiate receivers with at least 75 targets, Thomas finished 18th in yards per reception (17.3), 25th in yards per route run (2.61), 34th in contested catch rate (53.8%), and first in quarterback rating when targeted (148.3). His spreadsheet numbers in his final season pass the eye test, but his film study does the same. The following image is from Thomas’ Reception Perception profile, which you can read here.

The Jaguars opted to use Ridley downfield last year. Out of 59 receivers with at least 70 targets, Ridley finished 10th with a 13.2 average depth of target. If Thomas is expected to fill his shoes, his skillset and what he does well is a perfect fit. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Thomas,

“Thomas hits the benchmarks I want to see from a quality starting outside receiver in the NFL. His 70.1% success rate vs. man and 73.9% success rate vs. press coverage aren’t elite-level scores that we see the Tier 1 prospects reach but they’re plenty good enough. Thomas has the speed to separate down the field but possesses some underrated timing and nuance underneath. A whopping 67.1% of Thomas’ charted routes were a slant, curl or nine. It’s not the most limited route tree we’ve seen but it’s something to note on his profile. We could be looking at an early career DK Metcalf utilization plan for Thomas as a pure boundary receiver who only runs a small handful of routes. That gives him time to develop deeper skills at the position while giving his next team legitimate big-play value in a crucial position with his immediate contributions. Make no mistake, Thomas’ next team will want him on the field because he can burn downfield. His 72% success rate on nine routes is wild. The fact that he also maintains strong success rates on the corner and out just cements the fact he is a dangerous vertical weapon.”

When you look at Thomas’ success rate via Reception Perception and Lawrence’s success above, you can see a lot of green overlap. What Thomas does nicely coincides very well with what Lawrence does well. If Thomas can accumulate to the NFL game quickly, he could easily become one of the best receiver values this summer.

Trevor Lawrence led the NFL in @FantasyPtsData first-read target rate in 2022 and 2023.

Who will he lock in on in 2024?

Christian Kirk has the early head start. It will be so interesting to see where Ridley's targets go. pic.twitter.com/C7NBK1o5nv

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 2, 2024

Kirk is, for the most part, who Kirk is. In 2022, with no Ridley operating as Lawrence’s preferred target, he earned 7.8 targets per game and had an expected half-PPR PPG average of 11.0. In 2023, with the addition of Ridley, his targets per game dropped to 7.1, and his expected half-PPR PPG dropped to 10.3. There was a slight decrease, but more or less, he was the same player. He averaged 11.3 half-PPR PPG in 2022 and 10.8 this past season. Again, we’re talking about numbers so closely that they can be explained by random variance.

He finished as the WR21 in 2022, which should be considered his best-case scenario. That would likely involve Davis being who Davis has always been and Thomas struggling mightily as a rookie. Last year, he tied as the WR28 with four other players (Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Addison, and Rashee Rice). This is his most likely finish, which aligns with his current positional ADP.

However, a few other receivers are being drafted near or behind Kirk, who has a ceiling higher than WR20, so I’m going to sell Kirk slightly. His price tag is fair, and there’s nothing wrong with it, but his ceiling is lower than that of some other players near him. Guys like Tee Higgins (WR30), Terry McLaurin (WR32), Jayden Reed (WR34), Diontae Johnson (WR38), and Rashee Rice (WR39) all have higher ceilings.

Verdict: Fair Price on Christian Kirk, Buy Brian Thomas, and Sell Gabe Davis

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlooks

Evan Engram: TE7, ADP 71

When you look at the six tight ends ranked above him, it's hard to get Engram too much higher than where he currently sits, but that doesn't mean he should be ignored at his current cost. Engram has the potential and upside to finish inside the top four with the big names of Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews. Don't believe it? Look at his statistics from last season below.

• 143 targets (first among tight ends)
• 114 receptions (first)
• 963 yards (third)
• 23.8% target share (second)
• 23.7% target rate (seventh)
• 414 slot snaps (first)
• 97.4% route participation (second)
• 716 air yards (sixth)
• 269 unrealized air yards (eighth)
• Eight deep targets (third)
• Five end-zone targets (12th)
• 16 red-zone targets (12th)
• Four total touchdowns (12th)
• 1.60 yards per route run (ninth)
• 1.56 yards per team pass attempt (fifth)
• 10.4 half-PPR PPG (sixth)
• 10.6 expected half-PPR PPG (third)

His expected half-PPR PPG average just last season was third; quite honestly, there's potential for even that to increase. The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency this offseason and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the NFL Draft. Ridley had 136 targets, 76 receptions, 1,016 yards, and eight touchdowns.

When we look back up at Engram's elite statistics from 2023, there's one specific area he lacked: touchdowns. He had just 10 red-zone targets and just four total touchdowns. What if some of Ridley's usage in the end zone shifts to Engram? What if, instead of just five end-zone targets, Engram has 10 or 15? What if Engram finishes with seven touchdowns or eight instead of four? Given his utilization everywhere else, are those questions outrageous? Absolutely not! He had a 23.8% target, for crying out loud, and 143 total targets.

Engram has one of the most fantasy-friendly roles among tight ends, given his elite target share, number of slot snaps, and route participation. He's on the field all the time, never blocks, and is routinely targeted. With the loss of Ridley, there's no reason to think that should change this season.

Engram and fantasy managers only need him to outplay his touchdown numbers to come up for him to outplay his current ADP. Even without the number of red-zone and end-zone targets Ridley left behind, we'd expect that anyway, due to progression based on his overall utilization metrics. However, given just how much red-zone and end-zone work Ridley did leave behind, progression in the touchdown department seems all but guaranteed.

Despite that, Engram’s price is right where it should be. For starters, it’s hard to get Engram ahead of the guys ahead of him because they’re really good, too. Also, the Jaguars added Thomas, Davis, and Kirk, who missed five games last season, who will be healthier. Engram isn’t used downfield, evidenced by his 5.0 average target depth. Out of 37 tight ends with at least 40 targets, this ranked 34th last season. That means Engram needs volume and a lot of it. There’s little reason to believe he’s not going to get the volume he needs to match his positional ADP, but given the investments the Jaguars made this season, TE7 feels like a fair price.

Verdict: Fair Price on Evan Engram

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