Jackson Chourio - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Draft Values (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 147

CURRENT ADP: ~155 overall

ANALYSIS: Chourio made waves in the prospect community in 2022 as a young 18-year-old who completely skipped the Complex and headed off to Single-A Carolina, where he hit the ground running. Chourio made it to Double-A in 2022 and, between three levels, slashed .288/.342/.538 with 20 home runs, 55 extra-base hits, and 16 stolen bases in 99 games, elevating his stock to one of the top prospects in baseball.

2023 was a tale of two halves, and to me, it was clear the tacky ball had a large effect on him in the first half as Chourio spent his season in Biloxi, part of the Southern League. In the first half, he hit just .249/.304/.410 with 11 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The swing-and-miss issues stemmed mostly from changeups, which were moving much more aggressively with the pre-tacked ball. His contact rate in the first half of 75 percent jumped to 81 percent in the second half as Chourio mashed and made his way to Triple-A, finishing the second half with a slash of .324/.379/.538 with 11 home runs in 57 games.

Chourio already gets to big exit velocities and puts the ball out of the park to all fields. His average exit velocity hovered around 91 mph, while his 90th percentile exit velocity sat at 105 mph. Chourio has posted exit velocities as high as 113 mph, which is pretty impressive for his age, all while running hard-hit rates north of 55 percent.

From a plate discipline standpoint, Chourio is quite aggressive and has shown the propensity to chase pitches out of the zone, but he makes up for it with the amount of contact that he makes. As previously mentioned, the contact rate jumped significantly in the second half, but was solid even with the tacky ball in play in the Southern League. It is worth noting that despite a high chase rate of 35 percent, he showed a much better feel in Triple-A, chasing just 22 percent of pitches out of the zone.

The pure upside with Chourio compares to any hitter in the minors. There is power, a strong feel for contact, and the speed to steal 30 bases per season consistently. Considering the data and poise he has shown as a young prospect, it is fun to dream on the kind of player Chourio could become.

Signing the largest extension for a player who has never debuted in the majors this offseason pretty much guarantees that Chourio is in the Brewers lineup on Opening Day.

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