RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Start in 16+ Team Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: RB3/FLEX
ANALYSIS: If you're looking for a player with horrible injury luck, look no further than J.K. Dobbins. The former Baltimore Raven has played just nine games over the last seasons. He's fresh off recovering from a brutal Achilles tear in Week 1 of the 2023 campaign.
Dobbins followed teammate Gus Edwards and former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman to the Los Angeles Chargers this season. We don't know exactly what type of split to expect from Dobbins and Edwards, but it's worth noting that Dobbins was the preferred option in Baltimore when both were healthy.
The ramifications of Dobbins' latest injury are crucial, though. Achilles tears uproot the careers of NFL running backs, and we can only hope that Dobbins will be an exception to that case. Until we see him operate on a starter's workload for a few weeks, though, we won't know for sure.
History tells us RBs don’t come back well from Achilles injuries. Training camp reports are always glowing; don’t let a month of positive news outweigh years of data and analysis from learned doctors.
*Drafts JK Dobbins in fantasy once*
Look at the depth chart! Easy RB1 upside!
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 2, 2024
With that in mind, Dobbins' anticipated volume and role in a solid offense make him a worthwhile starting option in deeper leagues (such as 16-plus-team formats). This same volume and role are tempting in leagues with 14 teams or less, but we just don't know what type of production he'll deliver after last year's Achilles tear. Dobbins didn't even play in the preseason, so we are truly coming at this blind.
For Week 1, when Dobbins faces the Las Vegas Raiders, managers in deeper leagues should start him (for lack of better options) while tempering their expectations as he's coming off a major injury. In leagues with 14 teams or fewer, you're probably better off starting a younger, higher-upside player — perhaps one who showed that he can perform during the preseason.
There are just too many question marks with Dobbins right now, but maybe we'll be singing a different tune in Week 2.
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