J.A. Happ (SP, SEA) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Continue Scouting / Add in AL-Only Leagues

ANALYSIS: So your offense is chugging along just fine, but your pitchers have underperformed your expectations thus far. You don't want to lose your league because of that, so you head to waivers to see what might be available. What's available? J.A. Happ, currently owned in 57% of CBS leagues. Some of that ownership is in single formats, so he is a solid bet to be available in a standard one. Is he the compliment your offense has been looking for?

Thus far, Happ has posted a 2-1 record with a 3.51 ERA - the numbers of someone that won't hurt your ratios, at least, while you try to find something better. He strikes out few (6.48 K/9), but walks even fewer (1.62 BB/9), so you begin to think he can tide you over for a scoring period or two.

Then you take a closer look and realize that he can't. Strikeouts are fully 20% of a pitcher's value in many roto leagues and a big factor in points leagues as well - ignoring them entirely by rostering Happ is unwise. Happ's .287 BABIP against is around league average, but that is not the norm for a pitcher allowing a 29.1% line drive rate - a full 10% greater than league average.

His current HR/FB is elevated at 13.8%, but his fly balls allowed are exceptionally low at 28.2%. Even if his HR/FB normalizes to his career 10.2% mark, he will continue to allow too many HR as his fly ball rate returns to his career mark of 41.7%. His ERA is acceptable only because of a 77.8 LOB%, a number that is sure to regress for a pitcher that gets few punch outs. Pitch f/x data suggests that Happ has almost no "stuff" to speak of, with only his 4 seamer grading out as an above average offering and only barely so (0.17 runs above average per 100 thrown).

Put simply, Happ is a below average major league hurler currently masquerading as a league average one. Your team needs and deserves better.