X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Is Zero RB Actually Working in 2017?

Zero RB truthers (that’s me) - this article is for you. Did you do the right thing by sticking to your guns after a rough go in 2016?

If you were savvy/lucky enough to select the right WRs in the first 4-5 rounds (Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald, Adam Thielen), then you’re probably in good shape. And if you were savvy/lucky enough to follow that up with the right RBs (Chris Thompson, James White, Jerick McKinnon, Alvin Kamara, Duke Johnson) in rounds 5-8, then you are most likely at the top of the league.

But if you didn’t do both of those things, then your fantasy teams must be struggling as you watch RB-heavy teams rise up the ranks. So is Zero RB actually working in 2017? Let's break it down.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

2017 RB and WR Disappointments

It is not the job of an analyst to look at anecdotal evidence as the crux of an argument, but in the world of fantasy the performance of the big names plays a big role in perception. So let’s take a look at those names and see if it follows our narrative.

Some of the disappointments on the RB side include David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Jay Ajayi, Isaiah Crowell, Marshawn Lynch and Ameer Abdullah.

On the WR side, we have names like Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, TY Hilton, Amari Cooper, Terrelle Pryor, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Martavis Bryant, Devante Parker, Willie Snead, Jamison Crowder, Sammy Watkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Donte Moncrief and Kenny Britt.

There are clearly more disappointments on the WR side, which leads us into some analysis that furthers this notion.

 

Zero RB Results Through Week 8

After wasting my time researching those lists above, I needed to get to the real info that would validate Zero RB truthers or bury them in the past. I looked at the top 48 ranked players pre-draft, at both RB and WR, and their respective season  point totals (half-PPR scoring).

I tiered these players out into four tiers, reflective of a 12 team league, and looked at the average total points of each group.  Something to point out is that I included injuries, suspension and byes. Points are points, and your guys either played or did not. We can’t worry about other variables such as depth chart changes, roster moves etc. We are evaluating Zero RB in a vacuum, isolated away from your ability to work the waiver wire or start the right matchups.

Well after completing this simple analysis, we have our answer folks. At least thus far in the season, the tables have turned in a big way and Zero RB has let you down. Check it out:

  • The top 12 ranked pre-draft RBs (RB1s) have on average outscored the top 12 ranked pre-draft WRs (WR1s) 114 versus 90, or a 24 point difference. Over an eight game stretch that’s a three point difference per player/per game.
  • For the next group of 12 (RB2s), the RBs outscored the WRs (WR2s) 83 versus 73, or a 10 point difference. That’s 1.25 points per player/per game difference thus far. Are you following me?
  • The RBs ranked 25-36 (RB3s) on average have been outscored 55 versus 44 points over the first eight weeks. That’s 1.375 points per player/per game less.
  • Anything different for RBs ranked 37-48 (RB4s)? Nope, it actually gets worse. This group was outscored 50 versus 31 on average. That's 1.58 points per player/per game less.

 
The other data that is pertinent is the drop off in points from RB2 to RB3 and WR2 to WR3. This is around the area that a Zero RB strategy would have you shifting to draft RBs. For RBs, the drop-off from RB2 to RB3 was 39 points on average. Holy Shmoly. For WRs, the drop-off from WR2 to WR3was only 18 points.

 

The Bottom Line

So, what does this data analysis mean? I’ll try and make it as simple as possible with some quick bullets:

  1. The top two tiers of RBs have drastically outperformed the top tiers of WRs. The deficit you had to make up in the later rounds after drafting early RBs was massive.
  2. RB3s and RB4s are performing well below WR3s and WR4s. So when you looked to make up your RB deficit after going early on WRs, you actually widened it.
  3. Zero RB has been flipped on its head, with the data showing that the exact opposite strategy would have reaped you optimal rewards.

Of course, there are and were exceptions as I mentioned above. You may have drafted the exact guys needed to defy this analysis. You may have made up for the deficit mentioned above at QB or TE. But for the most part, Zero RB has been disproven through Week 8.

 

How Did This Happen?

My last article showcased the reason why this is happening. Simply put, RBs are getting more passing targets than ever before.

This trend is decimating the Zero RB argument from both sides of the equation. More RBs are receiving more targets, scoring more in half and full point PPR leagues, and taking targets away from WRs. And most importantly, RBs receiving more targets and in-turn running less is lowering the injury risk. Compound that with an inherently lowered injury risk for many teams employing RBBCs, and you’ve got your secret sauce. Mind Blown.

As always, this has been a fun column to write. Thank for taking some time to read this, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on the topic as well. I can be reached on Twitter @BrettMitchellFB.

Sincerely,
Brett Mitchell

 

More Weekly Lineup Prep




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Wendell Carter Jr.1 hour ago

Still Out Versus Detroit
Victor Wembanyama1 hour ago

Upgraded To Probable
Ausar Thompson1 hour ago

To Play On Saturday Night
Kirill Kaprizov4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Auston Matthews4 hours ago

May Return To Maple Leafs Lineup Next Week
Max Domi4 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Jakub Vrana4 hours ago

Sits As Healthy Scratch Saturday
Alex Pietrangelo4 hours ago

Remains Out Saturday
William Eklund4 hours ago

A Game-Time Call For Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen4 hours ago

Moves To First Line Saturday
Darnell Nurse5 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Could Be Placed On IR Or Benched
Jordan Eberle11 hours ago

To Miss At Least Three Months
Matthew Knies11 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Owen Power11 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Friday
John Gibson11 hours ago

Busy In Overtime Loss
Connor Hellebuyck11 hours ago

Sharp in Friday's Victory
Kyle Connor11 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Friday's Victory
Noah Fant19 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy21 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
21 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
22 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
22 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski22 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
22 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May22 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler22 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski22 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson22 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride23 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid23 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic23 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope23 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.23 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer23 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India23 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann23 hours ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig24 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards24 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker24 hours ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard24 hours ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons24 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant24 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant24 hours ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart1 day ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton1 day ago

Remains Out On Friday
Rashod Bateman1 day ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn1 day ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR1 day ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle1 day ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson1 day ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York1 day ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish1 day ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Ladd McConkey1 day ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb1 day ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta1 day ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson1 day ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith1 day ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson1 day ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison1 day ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins1 day ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans1 day ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci1 day ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale1 day ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet1 day ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang1 day ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Carlos Ulberg2 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
2 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale3 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal3 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English3 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole3 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
4 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers4 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
4 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri4 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy5 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP