RADIO
One of the most popular strategies in fantasy football heading into the 2024 NFL season was to ignore running backs in the beginning, and sometimes even in the middle rounds of the drafts, go heavy with wide receivers in the early rounds, and pick up the other positions later.
It made sense, considering 13 of the top 20 fantasy scorers in full-PPR among RBs, WRs, and TEs were wide receivers last season. But the fantasy gods had other ideas this year. Through seven weeks, there are only ten receivers in the top 20. Zero-RB drafters have found themselves in dire situations.
So what happened? Is this the year of the running back? Will this trend correct itself, or is it here to stay?
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Why Have Running Backs Been Better This Year?
As much as it may seem like running backs are just better at scoring fantasy points this year than receivers, the biggest reason for the shift is injuries. There have been an abnormally high number of significant injuries to star receivers that have obviously limited their ability to score.
When zero RB strategy was at an all time high bc “RBs always get hurt”…
Rashee Rice season ending injury
Brandon Aiyuk season ending injury
Godwin terrible injury
Puka, Kupp, and Nico out several weeks
That’s fantasy football for you 🙃
— Sports Counsel (@sports_counsel) October 22, 2024
A non-exhaustive list will follow. Philadelphia Eagles star WR A.J. Brown, one of the league's best, missed three games with a hamstring injury. Houston Texans Nico Collins (hamstring) is on injured reserve after leading the NFL in receiving yards through five weeks with a ridiculous 567 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (ankle) is now out for the season with a dislocated/broken ankle after being on pace for a monster season. His teammate, Mike Evans (hamstring), a future Hall of Famer, will miss at least three games with a hamstring ailment.
Wow, after having his leg destroyed (again) you can see him saying “back to work”, that’s just incredible strength and resilience from #Godwin pic.twitter.com/L9hwVTRToy
— Franco Russo (@_francorusso) October 22, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs stud WR and breakout star Rashee Rice (knee) got taken out by his own quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, on a tackle attempt and will miss the remainder of 2024. New Orleans Saints breakout star wideout Rashid Shaheed (knee) won't play another game this year.
The Los Angeles Rams had their fantastic WR Cooper Kupp miss four games with a high-ankle sprain. Puka Nacua, the record-holder for most receptions, receiving yards, and receiving yards in a playoff game for a rookie (181 yards, dude), missed five weeks with an MCL sprain.
Puka had to be carted to the locker room with a knee injury and has been ruled out…pic.twitter.com/lmzDKUOQdx
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 9, 2024
New York Giants stud rookie WR Malik Nabers missed two games with a concussion. Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins (quad) missed his first two games with a hamstring injury and was likely limited in the third.
The NFL's elite echelon of wideouts has looked more like a hospital ward at points this season. Those were 10 receivers who had a reasonable shot at being in the top 20 overall scoring players in fantasy football this season, and most of them will not finish there solely due to bad luck.
The good WR picks have been an injury minefield
These are the avg fantasy points per game rankings
Red = out for season
Yellow = missed or likely to miss 2+ games pic.twitter.com/ZkahXOCHts— Justin Herzig (@JustinHerzig) October 22, 2024
This article would not have been written if it weren't for so many injuries. There'd likely be a much closer balance at the top end of scoring—it may even have leaned receiver again. At the minimum, Brown, Godwin, Rice, Nacua, and Nabers would likely be in the top 20.
Is Drafting Running Backs First The Best Fantasy Football Strategy Now?
For 2024, it's probably not the best idea to go heavy on running backs. A more balanced approach makes more sense. It's reasonable to expect that injuries, such a prominent aspect of NFL play, would be important in determining who scores the most points in a season.
Something I didn’t really consider in any VORP-based analysis in the offseason, but should have:
The randomness of injuries can completely shape the “optimal” strategy of a season.
One of the most successful Zero RB years ever was 2015, when every RB had a season-ending injury https://t.co/JbKwFHe3gn
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 22, 2024
Many backfields have shifted to committees in a way that significantly nerfs all of their fantasy values. However, we have seen backs like Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon, Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones, and Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner, who fell in drafts due to their ages, get legitimate workhorse usage.
#Cardinals OC Drew Petzing:
“James [Conner] is the bellcow in that room. That’s not a surprise to anyone.” pic.twitter.com/2f7DNbMI6A
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 4, 2024
It's more important than ever to identify backfields that will be led by workhorse RBs. Typically, we see running backs fall in drafts when rookie backs are drafted to the same team, but often, later round rookie running backs tend to not make much of an impact as they sit behind the veteran and take a year to learn.
Cardinals running back Trey Benson is a perfect example of this. Conner has handled 109 carries, while the rookie has logged just 30. Fantasy managers who assumed this backfield would turn into more of a committee weren't happy with the results if they passed up on the former Steeler -- he's the RB12 in full PPR for the season.
Insane. James Conner has 34% more missed tackles than anyone else in the NFL. 🪨🔨 pic.twitter.com/ppAR70kK3W
— Jason Hayes (@JasonHayesNFL) October 24, 2024
Meanwhile, suppose you invested a significant draft pick in a player like Cincinnati Bengals RB Zack Moss, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert, or Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr.. In that case, you've likely been disappointed by the result. Those backs had workhorse usage last year, but not this.
Travis Etienne Jr. today:
7 targets, 6 receptions, 60 total yards
12 fantasy pointsTank Bigsby today:
10 carries, 125 total yards, 2 TDs
25.5 fantasy pointsCould there be two starting fantasy RBs in Jacksonville? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/lZpOwbClTC
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 6, 2024
It's impossible to always predict with certainty which RBs will maintain their bell-cow roles and which will cede touches to the backups, but it's important when choosing who to draft. In some cases, it's not difficult -- for example, the Ravens' Henry is a future Hall of Famer, while his backup, Justice Hill, isn't even close.
Derrick Henry ranks this season
NFL Rank
Rushes 1st
Rush Yards 1st
Rush TD 1st
Yards per Rush 1st
Rush 1st Downs 1st
Longest Rush 1st
Scrimmage Yds 1st
Scrimmage TD 1stoh ok pic.twitter.com/K7kBxrg6rL
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 22, 2024
What's The Optimal Draft Strategy For Fantasy Football In 2025?
Draft the most talented players wherever you can, and pray for luck with injuries. If you passed on Mixon, Henry, or Conner just because you wanted to draft a receiver instead, you're probably getting burned right now. It doesn't make much sense to pass on great assets for your team just because of the position they play.
"By 2024 it was widely believed zero-RB was the best fantasy football draft strategy. But then the Injury Gods had something to say about that." pic.twitter.com/dYi8jRELSG
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 24, 2024
Players missing time will never be something you'll be able to control, but you can always make sure you try to get as many studs as possible. Also, for the love of God, stop taking players like New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson in the first round. Just pick someone who's shown they can be a top-10 player before.
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