Is There a Track Record for Jake Arrieta's Future?

Last year, Jake Arrieta had the best season of his career (22 W, 1.77 ERA, 236 K, 0.86 WHIP) en route to the Cy Young Award. Now the question of what will he do in 2016 beckons for fantasy baseball owners. Arrieta will be 30 years old when the season starts, and a track record can certainly be found for pitchers having breakout seasons in their late twenties. For comparison, let's look at Corey Kluber, also a right-hander, who, like Arrieta, won the Cy Young late in his twenties, doing so primarily relying on the sinker. Both pitchers set career highs in innings pitched and experienced a significant bump in games started during these breakout seasons. So, what does the comparison hint for Arrieta? Kluber’s followup in 2015 saw him lose seven more games and win nine fewer while giving up 20 more runs, eight more home runs and striking out 25 fewer batters. The fact is that Arrieta was pushed further last season than at any point in his career, and entering his seventh season in the league, you have to wonder if his body can maintain that pace. On a recent episode of Buster Olney’s ESPN podcast, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com spoke of the situation in regards to the Cubs, saying “They’re aware of it, will take a look at it, and watch him very closely”. If you trust him, don’t jump at Arrieta too early. Consider him after the initial wave of pitchers are taken, because there’s every chance in the world he’s the Corey Kluber of 2016.