RADIO
There aren't many players in the NFL that have had the meteoric rise in fantasy value that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has over the past year.
Around this time in 2021, Pittman was being selected in the 10th round as the WR45 in half-PPR fantasy drafts. After his second season as a pro in which he finished as the WR15, Pittman is now going off the board in the third round ahead of players with longer track records such as D.J. Moore, Diontae Johnson, and Terry McLaurin.
Should we buy the hype? Is Pittman really worth a look within the first three rounds? Let's find out.
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Expectations For Michael Pittman Jr. In 2022
In his breakout campaign last season, Pittman tallied 88 receptions for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. He managed this on 129 targets from now- Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz. This was good enough for a respectable 25.7% team target share, the most ever seen by a wide receiver in a Wentz-led offense.
With Wentz out of town, the Colts dealt a 2022 third-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan. By most metrics, Ryan is a huge upgrade at the position. He had a down season in 2021 but played with limited weapons behind what Pro Football Focus ranked a bottom-six offensive line in the league.
Matt Ryan was better than Carson Wentz in:
-True completion percentage
-Pressured completion percentage
-Play action completion percentage
-Completion percentage vs man
-Completion percentage vs zoneThis is a Michael Pittman tweet.
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) August 20, 2022
Historically, Matt Ryan has supported a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in every season of his career except for 2013 and 2021. In Julio Jones' dominant run from 2014 through 2019, he never saw less than nine targets per game from Ryan in a season. Pittman saw about 7.6 per game last year, so we can expect this number to go up with the knowledge that Ryan showers his WR1 with high-quality targets.
Pittman's competition in the wide receiver room further emphasizes this, as the Colts added Alec Pierce in the second round of the 2022 draft but brought in no proven commodities. Parris Campbell has received a fair amount of training camp buzz, but the unfortunate truth is that we cannot trust him to stay on the field. Injuries have derailed his career to this point and he has never appeared in more than seven games in a season.
Where Should I Draft Michael Pittman Jr.?
With an average draft position of WR13, fantasy managers will need to decide if Pittman offers more value than other more proven pass-catchers. The case for Pittman to explode as an elite option, however, is quite easy to make. As the WR15 last year, now in an improved situation, Pittman's current draft cost could very well be his floor. His ceiling may be closer to top-five than top-12.
It's safe to say that Pittman is an attractive target late in the third round of fantasy drafts. All aboard the hype train.
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