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Sometimes, players just aren't as good as we thought they were as prospects.
It happens every single draft cycle. Efficiency numbers don't line up with what's to be expected. A dysfunctional coaching staff tears down their confidence. Combine results don't translate to game action.
There's a myriad of things that can go wrong. It was a rare case for Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He happened to get drafted by a team already sporting two elite wide receivers. With D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett siphoning targets, the rookie disappointed for fantasy football. Is there still optimism for his career projection or is his lack of production a sign of overvaluation?
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Highlights of Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Rookie Season
Twice, with less than a minute remaining in regulation, the Seahawks turned to the rookie when it mattered most. Against Cleveland in Week 8, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron dialed up a bubble screen (more on that later) for Smith-Njigba, who slipped past defenders to clinch a victory. Seven weeks later, Drew Lock said "JSN is down there somewhere..."
Those were two of Smith-Njigba's four scores in his debut campaign. Outside of his touchdowns, JSN did little to wow fantasy managers. He surpassed 60 yards on four occasions, topping out at 63 yards. His only double-digit target effort came in the shootout on Thursday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys. Unsurprisingly, that game also marked his best reception total (seven).
The first-round pick finished the 2023 season with 93 targets, 63 receptions, 628 yards, and four touchdowns. That added up to the WR48.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Versus Other First-Round Receivers
Smith-Njigba's numbers resemble rookie year DeVonta Smith and Calvin Ridley. JSN caught one less pass (63) than the former Crimson Tide receivers (64) in their introduction seasons. All three posted a targets per route run of less than 20 percent. Smith and Ridley (outside of the sabbatical and suspension) have still delivered for fantasy football.
Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and Brandin Cooks all finished with fewer catches than JSN in their respective rookie seasons. Whether it came in their second or third seasons, the majority of that group still broke out (sorry, Jeudy). Between that group and Smith and Ridley, four out of the six increased their target share in their second year.
| Receiver | Year 1 Receptions | Year 2 Receptions | Year 1 Target Share | Year 2 Target Share |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 63 | ?? | 17.0% | ?? |
| Brandin Cooks | 53 | 84 | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| Calvin Ridley | 64 | 63 (13 games) | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| DJ Moore | 55 | 87 | 15.1% | 24.3% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 60 | 56 | 24.2% | 18.5% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 52 | 38 (10 games) | 21.2% | 19.9% |
| DeVonta Smith | 64 | 95 | 22.1% | 27.0% |
The biggest concern when analyzing JSN's rookie numbers is his average depth of target and air yards. The Buckeye's 6.1-yard average depth of target ranked 95th at the position. 29 of his 63 receptions were caught at or behind the line of scrimmage. The beginning of the season was particularly slow. Through his first four games, JSN claimed the lowest average depth of completion (-0.3 yards). The coaching staff manufactured touches for their prized rookie, who had missed a chunk of training camp with a wrist injury.
Those figures coincide with air yards, where his total (569) sat behind part-time players like Allen Lazard and Kendrick Bourne, plus players like Deebo Samuel and Curtis Samuel, who get plays designed for them at or near the line of scrimmage often. JSN is not the same type of wide receiver as Deebo.
Last season's top first-round wide receivers (Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave) were in the upper echelon of air yards in year one. London's 1,251 yards ranked 21st in the league. He was the low man. Olave and Wilson hit 1,575 or better. In their final season together at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba led the Buckeyes in receiving yards and yards per reception (over Olave and Wilson). He can be a deep threat just as his former teammates were. It's just a matter of a coaching staff utilizing him properly.
None of the guys listed in the table above shared the field with two Pro Bowl-caliber wide receivers. Julio Jones and Marques Colston were well-established top weapons for Atlanta and New Orleans, respectively, but guys like Aiyuk and Moore had little competition. Smith-Njigba was selected by Seattle because they had the luxury of two first-round picks and viewed him (as most teams did) as the clear-cut top wide receiver prospect. He was taken as a luxury, not a need. Luxury isn't called upon immediately to contribute.
The Future Of The Seattle Offense
For the first time since 2010, Pete Carroll won't be smacking his gum on the Seattle sidelines. Nearly every season, he deployed a run-heavy approach with a concentrated passing game. From Sidney Rice to Doug Baldwin to Golden Tate to Jermaine Kearse to Tyler Lockett to DK Metcalf, just twice did a third receiver top 600 yards (Lockett's 664 in 2015 and Smith-Njigba's 628 this season). The next coach will bring a new philosophy to the Pacific Northwest.
Geno Smith is under contract for two more seasons but it'll be interesting to see if he maintains his job for that long. He earned the extension after completing nearly 70 percent of his attempts for 4,282 yards en route to a Comeback Player of the Year trophy. With more talent downfield in 2023, his touchdown total dropped from 30 to 20. He was, after all, initially a stopgap for Seattle after the Russell Wilson era came to an abrupt end.
It's easier said than done to move on from Smith. Seattle's first-round pick slots in at 16th overall. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels will all be long gone. J.J. McCarthy could be selected as well. Unless you're a fan of Bo Nix (I'm personally not) or Michael Penix Jr. (slightly more optimistic), there's no answer in this draft, barring a trade. It could happen in either direction but standing pat likely means another year of Geno Smith.
Fantasy Football Dynasty Value Of Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Unlike the other rookies profiled in this mini-series (Bryce Young and Quentin Johnston), there's sunshine and rainbows in Seattle. Smith-Njigba may have slipped behind Puka Nacua in dynasty rankings and the gap between him and other rookies like Rashee Rice, Jordan Addison, and Tank Dell has tightened, but he still has a spot inside the top 20.
Smith-Njigba could be the alpha wide receiver on this team in short order. Lockett will age out and JSN is a more polished route-runner than Metcalf. He was drafted by the Seahawks in the first round when Seattle had more pressing needs because of his talent. It just may take some time.
For dynasty managers looking to compete next year, JSN isn't an ideal trade-for candidate. His second year may only be a slight improvement from his first. For rebuilding rosters, he's the type of wide receiver to target. The future is still bright.
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