Is Derrick Henry Worth Drafting In Fantasy Football in the Early First Round?

After leading the NFL in 2019 and 2020 in rushing yards, Titans running back Derrick Henry was well on his way to doing it again in 2022 through eight games. In fact, he was on track to become the first player in NFL history to record back-to-back 2,000-yard rushing seasons.

Unfortunately, he suffered a broken bone in his foot after eight games, costing him the rest of the regular season. He returned for the AFC Divisional playoff game against the Bengals but rushed for just 62 yards in 20 carries (3.1 YPC.)

This leaves Henry’s 2022 fantasy status in a weird spot. His upside remains high thanks to his defined workhorse role, but can we expect King Henry to return to dominant form? His ADP currently sits at the 1.09 spot during the month of August. Let’s dive in.

The Case for Derrick Henry in Fantasy Football

Henry led the league in rushing yards and touchdowns in 2019 and 2020. This yielded a standard league RB2 finish in 2019 and an RB1 finish in 2020. In 2021, he was the RB1 in fantasy points per game (21.9) by a wide margin. His PPR league finishes weren’t quite as high, but he was still a tremendous fantasy asset in all formats. During those three seasons, Henry averaged just over 23 carries per game. 

Best plays from @KingHenry_2's 3-TD game vs. Seahawks 👑

📺: More coverage on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/bWveTnLd5M

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) September 21, 2021

Arthur Smith left Tennessee after the 2020 season, leaving Todd Downing in charge of the Titans’ offense. Downing was even more willing to lean on Henry, who averaged career highs in carries per game (27.4) and receptions per game (2.25). Downing remains the offensive coordinator, so the workload leaves nothing to be desired when it comes to fantasy production, especially in standard leagues.

If Henry returns to full strength, we can expect another 300-plus touch season and we know he’ll dominate all red zone and goal line opportunities. He’ll still get to feast on division rivals Houston and Jacksonville, but again, his workload is steady whether Tennessee leads or trails. 

Despite losing A.J. Brown, this Titans offense could look better in 2022. Brown and Julio Jones missed 11 combined games, so Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was often the No. 2 WR in Tennessee. Rookie Treylon Burks and veteran Robert Woods can replace the combined production Jones and Brown left behind if they can stay healthy. Additionally, Austin Hooper is a clear upgrade over Anthony Firkser.

Ultimately, this offense shouldn't be expected to take a huge step backward, meaning the Titans will continue to have a ton of red zone trips – great for Henry.

The Case Against Derrick Henry in Fantasy Football

Derrick Henry 2021 Advanced Stats and Metrics

Although Henry was a dominant fantasy asset to begin last season, his efficiency went way down compared to his previous seasons. He was averaging just 4.3 yards per carry, 4.0 true yards per carry, 4.6 yards per touch, and a 4.1-percent breakaway run rate. He plummeted in all of these categories compared to his previous seasons as shown by his 2019 and 2020 advanced metrics.

As always, Henry isn’t quite the same dominant player in PPR leagues. Like Nick Chubb, he’s more of a one-dimensional back. However, Chubb’s offensive line remains one of the top units in the NFL, while Tennessee is in a shakier spot than it has been in that position group in years after losing Rodger Saffold this offseason.

Running backs rarely remain dominant and efficient after their age 26 season, and since Henry is coming off of the first major injury of his career, durability is going to be a concern. Add in the 900-plus touches Henry has taken over the past three seasons and we could be looking at the end of the King’s reign. We might think Henry is built differently, but historical data isn’t on his side.

Is Derrick Henry a Safe Pick in Fantasy Football?

Henry is far from a safe pick in fantasy football for the reasons laid out above. However, safety only gets you so far when competing in a 10-16 team fantasy league. You should always draft for upside, and in standard leagues, only Jonathan Taylor (arguably) has more upside. In PPR leagues, you can probably fade him at a high cost though, as the concerns outweigh the upside.

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