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The Atlanta Falcons' first-round draft pick Bijan Robinson is the bettors' favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
At +300, Robinson is considered to have a 25% shot at taking home the rookie award. Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (+400 / 20%) is the number two contender.
Robinson might have the top odds at the sportsbooks, but will he really be standing on the stage in Las Vegas at the NFL Honors in 2024?
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Will Bijan Robinson Win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Robinson was selected with the eighth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. That makes him the highest-picked running back and the only one selected earlier than No. 24 since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
The 21-year-old was a five-star recruit coming out of Salpointe Catholic High School in Tucson, Arizona, where he set a state record for rushing yards and touchdowns. He was named Alamo Bowl MVP as a freshman and made the all-Big 12 team as a sophomore. By the time he entered his junior season, he was widely regarded as the best running back in the nation and one of the most talented offensive players in the draft class.
He lived up to the hype. He ran for 1,580 yards on 258 carries and scored 20 total touchdowns. He ranked first in the Big 12 in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards per attempt. He ranked second in the entire NCAA in yards from scrimmage.
There is no doubt of Bijan Robinson's skill. He is also joining a team that will maximize his abilities. The Falcons ranked second in rushing attempts per game and rushing yards per game last season while featuring fifth-round draft pick Tyler Allgeier.
Before Arthur Smith was the Falcons' coach, he was the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans for two years. Those two years were the best of Derrick Henry's career. Henry led the league in rushing yards twice and posted the two best per-yardage metrics of his career.
With this kind of talent and this positive situation, Robinson has a good chance to win offensive rookie of the year. It is right to consider the favorite.
Bijan Robinson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Falcons have a talented backfield that already consists of Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, but Bijan Robinson is the likely starter. The Falcons drafted him in the top ten because they assessed that he would improve the team.
Bijan Robinson is an offensive weapon. pic.twitter.com/wZsW6pUN9Q
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) June 14, 2023
Allgeier played very well at BYU, leading all independent schools in rushing yards, but the level of competition there is much lower than that Robinson faced in the Big 12. There's a reason he fell to the fifth round. He might be a good running back who was overlooked. He deserves a lot of credit for his productive rookie season, but we also have to consider the boost he got playing for the Falcons.
The Falcons ran the ball 559 times last season and called 470 rushing plays for running backs if you take out quarterback runs. Even if the Falcons operate some kind of committee and only give Robinson 60% of the work, that's still about 280 carries.
If Robinson averages 4.9 yards per carry, which is what the team averaged last year, on 280 carries, that's close to 1,400 yards in the season. He'll likely have a higher rushing average than the team. He might have fewer than 280 carries, but he'll almost certainly have greater than 210, the number of carries Allgeier was given last season.
Bijan Robinson is a first-round draft pick, and the ceiling for him is even higher than being the best rookie in fantasy football. He could go as far as being RB1.
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