BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~150 Overall
CURRENT ADP: 180+ (Undrafted in 12-team leagues)
ANALYSIS: If you have been living under a rock during the past few months, or have been reading too much about COVID and too little about American football, you might have missed the biggest news coming from Minnesota: the Vikings sent Stefon Diggs to Buffalo. Most importantly for fantasy GMs, that means that they opened 94 targets to share among the remaining offensive weapons. On top of that, the Vikings attack is expected to come down to basically three skill-position players next season: WR Adam Thielen, RB Dalvin Cook, and one/two TEs in Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr.
Smith Jr. is a former second-round pick from the 2019 draft class and already as a rookie battled with Rudolph to finish the season as the best tight end to play in Minny, finishing with 36 receptions for 311 yards and 2 TDs. The only statistic in which Rudolph clearly beat Smith was in touchdowns (six to two), although it was reasonable given his long-standing tenure in the franchise compared to the rookie being on his freshman year. One of Smith's best traits was his high catch rate of 75 percent, which put him in the 73rd percentile among all NFL players.
If Smith is able to build on his rookie season, which already saw him get 11% of the Vikings targets, we might have a true league-winner in our hands... going at the price of peanuts--if anything at all! Smith's current ADP of around 200 makes him an undrafted player in most PPR re-draft leagues. That means that you can get him for free after your draft, or throw a dart toward him with a 14th-/15th-round late pick. Rudolph is closer to his retirement than to hitting a peak-year again, so Kirk Cousins will need to start getting Smith some heavy consideration. Don't think about Smith about your weekly starting TE, but definitely have him around in your bench in case he breaks out in year-two.
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