RADIO
So as you may or may not know, we here at RotoBaller hosted an industry mock draft last Thursday night with some dapper gents. We are gathered here today on this webpage for part one of the reactions to the draft. Outside of discussing the awesomeness that is Jung Ho Kang’s tattoo of himself, we did actually discuss the picks (for the record, Justin Mason gave the tattoo an “80” grade).
Here’s the lineup: Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller), Alex Chamberlain (RotoGraphs/RotoBaller), Brad Johnson (RotoBaller), Joe Gallina (RotoExperts), Keith Lott (WeTalkFantasySports), Nate Miller (Sporting News), Nick Mariano (RotoBaller), Justin Mandaro (TheFantasyFix), Alex Beckey (BaseballHQ), Jarad Wilk (New York Post), Justin Mason/Paul Sporer (RotoGraphs), and George Bissell (Baseball Prospectus).
We’re going to kick this off by honing in on the picks that each of us were most proud of. I’ll be following everyone’s thoughts with a brief commentary of my own because it’s my article and I can. Don’t think I forgot about Nate, he’s just a very busy man.
Since you all love draft boards and deserve context, you can find an image of the full draftboard in all of its glory at the bottom of the article.
Q: Which Pick Of Yours Are You Most Proud Of?
Kyle Bishop: Dexter Fowler - I already had a full outfield, but I was thrilled to land Dexter Fowler at 216. The power doesn't read as fluky to me and I think his batting average will rebound, seeing as his BABIP last year was over 30 points lower than his career mark. Another 15/20 season seems doable and, paired with a better average and a boatload of runs hitting near the top of the Cubs' stacked lineup, which would make him a poor man's Mookie Betts at a fraction of the cost.
This is a sound take, as boatload of runs might be underselling the potency of hitting atop the Cubbies’ lineup. Fowler going anywhere beyond the 200s seemingly guarantees a strong profit margin regardless of your team’s build. His contact rates made notable jumps (swung at pitches out of the zone 3.6% less and made contact on swings at pitches in the zone 3.9% more of the time) while pulling the ball 44.1% of the time, a huge leap from 37.8% in 2014.
Alex Chamberlain: Corey Kluber – I'll take Corey Kluber (5.02 / 50th) as the "back end" of a deep top tier -- dudes are all pretty interchangeable.
Alex is being modest. Getting Kluber as the 13th SP off the board and as your ace in the fifth round is nothing to be nonchalant about, as the win-loss record is what really lopped off value from the Klubot last year. If that normalizes to a simply even split, he’s moving on up. His 3.49 ERA isn’t beautiful, but was backed by a 2.97 FIP and 2.98 SIERA. He’s still a stud. If others overlook him based on his overall stats that include the ugly 9-16 record, you pounce.
Brad Johnson: Noah Syndergaard/Kevin Pillar - Noah Syndergaard in the sixth wasn't a gutsy pick, but that's the best valuation I'll get on him all year. In terms of raw, possibly irrational pride, I'm quite happy with Kevin Pillar after guys like Corey Dickerson, Ender Inciarte, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce. He filled a need for steals while also giving me a stake in the Jays juggernaut.
Don’t worry, this about pride not guts Brad, and nabbing Thor at the end of the sixth as the 19th SP to go along with Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez gives one considerable upside while managing to also provide a healthy floor. He looks to post a low-3s ERA with a WHIP hovering between 1.00 and 1.10 while striking out over a batter per inning. As your SP3? Yes please. Pillar is also a solid call, and if he wins the leadoff job over Michael Saunders then you’re sitting pretty with a chance at 100 runs with double-digit pop and 25 bags.
Joe Gallina: Josh Reddick – I wouldn’t say I’m beaming or puffing out my chest over it, but I think I got decent value from picking up Josh Reddick and his potential 20 plus homers and 80 RBIs as my final outfielder in the 19th round.
Much like the Fowler selection that Kyle was proud of, Reddick proves that there is still plenty of deeper value to round out your outfielder group with. Oakland might not be the sexiest environment, but Reddick’s quiet production can be a real asset on draft day and beyond. He really made plate discipline a priority, and while he won’t approach the sexy 32 home run campaign of 2012, the overall growth looks to be legitimate.
Keith Lott: Adam Jones – Love me some Adam Jones in the 5th round, especially after ignoring the OF position in the first three.
Keith nabbed 3 CIs with his first three picks, then grabbed an ace in David Price, and in a five-OF format this can leave you hurting. Adam Jones has OF1 potential in his bat, and while people see a drop-off in production coming thanks to last year, his BABIP of .286 was noticeably lower than his career average of .311 (which includes that .286). 25 home runs with a .275-.280 average, 80 runs, and 85 RBIs is bankable out of Jones here.
Nick Mariano: Travis d’Arnaud – I'm going to say Travis D'Arnaud in Rd 11 in a 2-C league after Yasmani Grandal and Salvador Perez had just gone.
I kept it brief since I knew I’d get to expand here. As it was a 2-C league, I had my eye on d’Arnaud for a few rounds, but saw other needs come first. Evan Longoria was the last 3B I was comfortable with in Round 9, and Marcus Stroman felt like the last “ace-capable” starter left in Round 10. When d’Arnaud made it past selections of Grandal and Perez, I knew it was my destiny to take him. A .218 ISO out of the C slot with a respectable ~.260 average is cake.
Justin Mandaro: Giancarlo Stanton – I can't say I am going out on a limb here but my first round selection of Giancarlo Stanton was my best pick of the night. The dude can rake in any ball park to all fields but too many people are down on him because of a couple of fluky injuries. It's not like he is the Arian Foster of Major League Baseball or anything, most of his injuries come from some whacky occurrence that normally would never happen. I rank him 4th outside of Goldschmidt, Trout and Harper as he has 50 HR potential in a league that basically doesn't have that kind of talent anymore. He was a steal with the 8th pick in my honest opinion and you should be ecstatic to get a player of his caliber at that spot.
I mean, fair enough Justin. He cites the same reasons for his #4 overall ranking of Stanton that I do for my #5 ranking (I have Clayton Kershaw above him). He has game-breaking power, and if his body can keep up with his strength then the results could be magical for Stanton owners. Hamate bones aren’t really indicative of future injuries (they get removed), and obviously a fastball to the face doesn’t speak to his durability either. Soft tissue injuries, like hamstring woes, are more my concern. The upside is absurd though, so I’m with you Mr. Mandaro.
Alex Beckey: Kyle Schwarber – I thought I might be lucky enough to snag Buster Posey late in the third round, but when Justin selected him with the pick right before mine, I grabbed Kyle Schwarber. I was happy to land Schwarber not only because he has the potential to be the first catcher-eligible player to hit over 30 home runs in a season since Javy Lopez hit 43 in 2003 [Schwarber hit 16 in only 69 games as a rookie in 2015], but also because he’s maintained a high ADP in industry drafts. Schwarber went in the second round of the FSTA draft and fourth round of the LABR (mixed) draft. So, splitting the difference and drafting him in the third round among this group of experts seemed appropriate.
We’ll get back to Schwarber in later installments, but I will say that Beckey makes a good case here. Plenty of people are expecting some regression with Schwarber, and worry that paying for the small sample size we’ve seen can leave you in the dust and having no room for profit. Schwarber’s power is undoubtedly real though, and if he remains productive in the heart of the Cubs’ strong lineup, then the counting stats will be scary good. The price tag is certainly close to his ceiling, but if you risk it for this biscuit then you could have the top catcher in the game when in 2016 ends.
Jarad Wilk: Anthony Rendon – I was very happy grabbing Anthony Rendon in the 10th round - thought it was amazing value for that spot.
As I recall, when Rendon was selected there were a few groans in the room as others thought he had been taken already. The 10th round is a nice place to take the risk on Rendon, a guy who showed first/second round talent in 2014 and succumbed to injury woes in 2015. If he pays off, he still has 2B/3B dual eligibility and even if the Nationals pump the brakes on allowing him to steal aggressively, a conservative 16/8 season will do.
Justin Mason: Masahiro Tanaka/Jonathan Schoop – Tanaka in the 17th and Schoop in the 18th were my favorite picks. I know there is downside but the upside is immense. Tanaka slipping that far was I am sure due to the weird ranks on the site but I was happy to get them there.
Masahiro Tanaka is armed with one of scariest elbows in the game for 2016 (I am so clever), as choosing to rehab a partially torn UCL instead of getting it surgically repaired leaves his owners feeling as though there’s a guillotine above their heads. Regardless, the 17th round is absurd value on this risk, as he should strikeout around a batter per inning while posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP if we’re feeling conservative. Great take here. Schoop is deservedly buzzy name this spring. If he gives you 20 home runs out of the MI slot then you can stomach the potentially poor average. If it doesn’t pan out, well he was only an 18th rounder.
George Bissell: Shin-Soo Choo – The industry buzzword "value" is thrown around far too often, but I'm going to use it here with Shin-Soo Choo in the 14th Round (#157 overall). He checked in exactly 50 spots lower in my rankings coming into the draft and was a phenomenal value. Fantasy owners seem to be overlooking the fact he hit .336/.458/.537 with nine home runs over his final 60 games (265 plate appearances). To say that I was surprised to get him that late in a league with 60 starting outfielders would be a pretty big understatement.
This is one I kicked myself over. Choo bounced back in a fantastic way last year, and even though he’s entering his age-33 season this year, there is little reason to suspect that he cannot achieve a 20 homer season again. The speed is long gone, but he should still be able to hit .270 while going yard and batting in a potent spot in the Rangers lineup where the 94 runs and 82 RBIs from last year won’t be too far off from his 2016 totals. With the majority of outfielders selected before him being more of the “speedster” type, Choo is a notable sneaky power bat in Texas.
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