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If you’re like me, one of your favorite times of the year is the NFL Draft. It’s that magical moment where you can pretend your team is just a few picks away from greatness, even if they are the Jets or Lions! It’s a fantastical season when real football can somehow feel like fantasy football. It's a time when you can construct the ideal draft board for your favorite team and scream in disappointment when they ignore all of the advice you keep yelling at them through your television set.
With the Draft now gone, many of us have to turn our hopeful spirits back towards fantasy football. We must ignore those moments of hope when we thought all would be fixed with our pro teams, and focus on getting drunk and drafting a kicker in the third round of your home league. But even in this time of moving on and focusing on what’s ahead, we must still keep an eye and an ear on the upheaval the Draft just caused. We must keep looking back and re-watching what happened, and we must understand what it all means for our fantasy futures.
For IDP managers, this process of looking back on the Draft might be particularly frustrating in 2021. This Draft was less generous on defense when it came to giving us elite talent in fantasy-friendly places. But there were still a number of moves that mattered on the defensive side of the ball, and those are the ones we are here to discuss.
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Fantasy Stock Up
1. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans
Simmons was a big IDP favorite of ours last year, and with good reason. He is a former first-round pick with only 24 games under his belt so far. Despite that inexperience, Simmons has shown serious push as a five-technique and inside pass rusher. He has wrecked offensive lines and frustrated teams like the Vikings in the process. The question has simply been, can he become a menace more consistently?
To their credit, the Titans are doing their best to help Simmons and the rest of that defense become a consistent force. They made two big moves this offseason, both with that goal clearly in mind. First, they signed edge rusher Bud Dupree, even though he is still recovering from knee surgery. Then they drafted an elite cover corner in Caleb Farley, who is himself recovering from back surgery. They didn't do a whole lot more than add these two elite talents, but these moves were big swings for the fences and they could help a player like Simmons take that final step towards stardom.
Farley, in particular, should be a great help to the dynasty value of Simmons. One of the reasons this Titans pass rush struggled to get home last year was shoddy coverage, and Farley is easily the most gifted coverage corner in this rookie class when he’s healthy. If his back is right like some say it will be, Farley should shut down opposing receivers and give Simmons more time to get after quarterbacks. Add in a healthy Dupree commanding blockers’ attention, and Simmons’ stock will continue to go up.
2. Jamien Sherwood, DB/LB, New York Jets
It is common knowledge that “opportunity is king” in fantasy football. That phrase can mean a lot of things, though. It could mean opportunity for snaps is king, or maybe shots at big plays are what lead to royalty. It could also mean the opportunity to play multiple positions is what matters. Luckily for Sherwood, he could see all kinds of opportunities in New York.
This Auburn product is a big safety who plays and looks like a linebacker. In joining the creative mind of Robert Saleh, Sherwood should be deployed all over the field and be given multiple means to make plays. The Jets have several holes on their defense, and Sherwood has the versatility fill most of them. That means he should have an opportunity to earn an early starting spot somewhere on that defense, and hopefully he will earn fantasy eligibility at both DB and LB in the process.
3. Elerson Smith, LB/DL, New York Giants
Smith was one of the biggest standouts of this year’s Senior Bowl, and he was a prospect who went under too many radars this Draft season. He has elite length, surprising punch, a good first step, and gets his hands up to bat the ball down. He has the potential to be great if he gets stronger, and he landed in a spot where that potential could see the field quite a bit.
The Giants' pass rush has been lacking for some time, but this year they addressed it twice by selecting two of my highest-rated edge rushers in the 2021 Draft. Azeez Ojulari should take one side of the field, but the side opposite side is up for grabs. Right now, the primary competition for that second edge spot should be between Smith, Ryan Anderson, and Oshane Ximines. Anderson and Ximines together have totaled just 10.5 sacks in 72 NFL games, which isn’t great. Smith should have a real shot to beat them out.
4. Trevon Moehrig, DB, Las Vegas Raiders
Moehrig was the highest-rated safety in this year's Draft. A better and more athletic fielder than fellow Raider Jonathan Abrams, the TCU product should be given every opportunity to lead Las Vegas in tackles and turnovers as a sideline-to-sideline patrolling rookie.
While he is certainly gifted, Moehrig’s fantasy value is actually increased now that he is joining a moribund Raiders defense. While Las Vegas’ corners are highly drafted, they allow lots of catches and miss lots of tackles. While the Raiders have spent a lot on linebackers and defensive linemen, both position groups are still works in progress. Those weaknesses at the first three levels of their defense may seem like a bad thing for Moehrig, but it’s actually good for his fantasy potential. Expect plenty of ball carriers and receivers to get past the first two levels of this defense, and that means they’ll enter Moehrig’s zone.
5. Talanoa Hufanga, LB/DB, San Francisco 49ers
Another big safety/linebacker hybrid player, Hufanga was one of the harder evaluations of anyone in this draft class. He is a big-time hitter who shows great instincts and leadership, but he is a bit slim to be a linebacker and a bit slow to be a safety. That means his NFL fortunes will be determined by how creative his coordinator can be with him.
As a rookie, you shouldn’t expect too much from Hufanga. However, he does have the profile and mentality to outplay his draft position. He could take the same path as another fifth-round pick of the 49ers, Dre Greenlaw, who was also considered too slow to play safety and too small to play linebacker. Greenlaw’s character and versatility turned out to be an asset in San Francisco, and the same could be said for Hufanga.
Fantasy Stock Down
1. Zack Baun, LB, New Orleans Saints
One of the more frustrating moments of this year’s NFL Draft, at least for myself, was when the Saints used a premium pick on Ohio State linebacker Pete Werner. While the pick itself wasn’t bad value, New Orleans’ decision to take a run-stuffing linebacker instead of a corner or receiver in round two sent a strong signal that they don’t have a good plan for Baun.
Unfortunately, the confusion over what to do with a player like Baun isn’t anything new. In fact, it was rumored that Baun fell out of the first round in last year's Draft because most teams didn’t know where his best fit would be in the pros. At the time he was labeled a ‘tweener who didn’t fit anywhere, even though a similar but more athletic player (Isaiah Simmons) was considered a no-brainer top ten pick. Both Baun and Simmons now face this same problem of not fitting in, both of them stuck on the bench because their coaches don't know how to use them. It's a frustrating turn of events for IDP fans who thought Baun could become a dominant IDP defender with enough snaps and opportunities.
Fans should certainly hold onto hope that Baun will beat out Werner for an every-down role, but the Saints' investment in that rookie is discouraging. Stash Baun because he’s gifted, but lower your expectations.
2. All Dallas Cowboys Linebackers
Two weeks ago, Micah Parsons and Jaylon Smith both felt like guaranteed top-ten fantasy linebackers. Smith was already that caliber of player, and Parsons had the pedigree to be a truly elite IDP defender early in his career. However, if you fast forward to today, you’ll see a very different outlook for both Smith and Parsons as they find themselves mired in a crowded Cowboys linebacker room.
As of this moment, the Cowboys have invested serious resources in five linebackers who are all still on their roster. They have invested serious money in Smith and Keanu Neal, who they plan to move to linebacker. Meanwhile, they’ve used serious draft capital on Parsons, Leighton Vander Esch, and Jabril Cox. Altogether, that makes five gifted and costly linebackers on a team that is expected to run a unique 4-3 scheme with nickel sub-packages. That means there will be two or three linebacker spots at any one time, with five talented 'backers (none of whom fit the LEO position in a Bob Quinn scheme) in the building.
Until some of these mouths are traded or released, the fantasy stock of Smith and Parsons is compromised. Expect both Smith and Vander Esch to hit the trade block at some point, but if Smith stays in town you should anticipate he and Parsons will split stats and damage each other’s fantasy value in the process.
3. Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons, LBs, Arizona Cardinals
It’s truly interesting to see how often Arizona invests a first-round pick on a hybrid-linebacker who they don’t know how to use properly. They did it four years ago with Haason Reddick, who was misused for three years before emerging as a pass rusher and then leaving. Last year Arizona did the same thing with Isaiah Simmons, investing the eighth overall draft pick in a hybrid player they only used on 33.9% of their defensive snaps. And now they have invested yet another first-round pick in a hybrid-linebacker (Zaven Collins), and there is still zero indication they know how or when to use him.
While the talent of Simmons and Collins is undeniable, and they are good long-term fantasy investments, fantasy managers shouldn’t bet on Arizona using them properly. The Cardinals have a crowded linebacker room, and this organization has an established history of hoarding and then misusing their best linebackers. Don’t expect Simmons or Collins to see the field more than 70% of the time, and without 70% of the snaps they will struggle to produce consistent LB1 or LB2 fantasy value.
4. Clelin Ferrell, DL, Las Vegas Raiders
IDP managers should be well aware that Ferrell hasn’t produced like a top-five pick so far in his career. That lack of production doesn’t look likely to change, either.
The signing of Yannick Ngakoue hurt Ferrell’s stock a lot, and the drafting of Malcolm Koonce makes things even worse. Ngakoue and Koonce are both faster edge rushers with more bend than Ferrell, and their presence should push the former fourth-overall pick either insider or down to fourth on the edge depth chart. If someone is willing to give you anything in return for Ferrell in hopes he may still become that fourth-overall pick, take it. If not, watch Ferrell for a few more games and dump him if he isn’t a different player soon.
5. Nick Bosa, DL, San Francisco 49ers
By no means are we telling you to drop Bosa or trade him. He is still an elite fantasy asset, especially in dynasty formats. However, John Lynch did not do a lot to help Bosa this offseason and that could limit his upside in 2021.
To start, let’s be clear that the signing of Maurice Hurst was a great value for the 49ers. The addition of Samson Ebukam is also a promising addition, even if his role and upside in this defense are far from defined. But Hurst and Ebukam are the only two defensive additions worth mentioning from this offseason. The rest of the 49ers' defensive moves this spring were aimed at bringing back their injury-prone defensive backs and drafting mid-round projects that won't likely help their secondary in 2021. That simply won’t be enough to return this defense to its 2019 glory, especially when you consider there is no clear replacement for the upper-echelon production of Deforest Buckner, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford from that Super Bowl unit.
With a lack of elite defensive additions this offseason, Bosa will have to hope for the health of Dee Ford (a longshot) and the ascension of Javon Kinlaw. Without both of those players coming back bigger than expected, a lot is going to be put on the plate of a Bosa, and it's unclear whether his still-healing knee can handle that kind of burden.
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