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Sometimes, an elite matchup doesn't work out in fantasy. Worse, sometimes all signs can point to a great player having a great game, yet it doesn't happen. This is something experienced fantasy managers are used to. They know that you don't bench superstars after one or two bad games, don't just start whoever had a great week last week, and don't overreact.
Unfortunately, it is second nature for us to overreact to a bad game or two. A fine example of this in the IDP world is Nick Bosa, who had an elite matchup against a Rams left tackle spot that had surrendered four sacks and 14 pressures in two games. Unfortunately, the Rams switched up their left tackle spot against San Fran and Bosa logged zero sacks and just one QB hit.
Box scores like Bosa had against L.A., just 2.5 Standard IDP fantasy points, don’t always tell the entire story. Bosa came into the game with an injury. The 49ers also stopped deploying Bosa at the LEO, a position he previously spent half his time in. Despite these problems, Bosa still generated a good pass rush win rate and pressure rate. Luck just wasn’t with him.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Trevon Diggs, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Like any fantasy cornerback, Diggs is extremely dependent on facing high-volume wide receivers. The Cowboys have shadowed with Diggs in the past, including against the Saints.
If Malik Nabers hasn't done enough to merit shadow coverage, it's hard to imagine who has. The rookie leads the NFL in targets by 15%. Daniel Jones is also no stranger to throwing interceptions. If an interception maven like Diggs is shadowing the league's target leader, positive fantasy results will likely result.
Brandon Aiyuk cooked Trevon Diggs 😳pic.twitter.com/8WjK5YeH1O
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 16, 2022
Stream: Christian Izien, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Izien joins Nick Herbig as two defenders worth streaming… if the starters ahead of them are out. When Antoine Winfield Jr. started in Week 1, Izien's snaps were only part-time. With Winfield out the past two weeks, Izien has been a full-time starter.
In his two games as a starter, Izien has played nearly every defensive snap for Tampa Bay. In those two games, he has collected 18 tackles, an interception, and is averaging 12.25 Standard IDP points per game. That fantasy ppg rate is good for third in the NFL this season.
The Eagles are also a favorable matchup for Tampa’s secondary. The Packers had two top-20 fantasy DBs against the Eagles in Week 1. Jessie Bates III scored 21.5 points against them in Week 2. Then, last week, we saw three different Saints DBs produce starter-caliber numbers against Jalen Hurts and company.
Fade: Shaq Thompson, LB, Carolina Panthers
Thompson has been a fine contributor this year, but he’s always been an inconsistent fantasy asset. He has spike weeks, but he’s neither elite nor consistent. He’s never amongst the league’s tackle leaders, he averages 1.2 sacks per year, forces less than one turnover per year, and he’s played a full sleight twice in nine seasons.
This week, Thompson has a mediocre matchup, which means his floor is lower than usual. The Bengals are 31st in run plays per game, with a large majority of their offense going through their outside receivers when Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy. That means the opportunity for a boom week is low and the bust risk is high.
Cincinnati has involved their tight ends and running backs in the passing game enough to give Panthers linebackers a chance to contribute. The volume just won’t be high enough to consider Thompson a safe play. He is currently starting in more leagues than Tyrel Dodson, but Dodson is performing better and has a better matchup.
Fade: Christian Wilkins, DL, Las Vegas Raiders
Wilkins is the 13th-most-started fantasy DL but is the 68th-highest-scoring one. While the small sample size can explain some of this, Wilkins has routinely been an overrated fantasy DL, even when his numbers were much better in Miami.
In the past, there were many analysts and fans who considered Wilkens a true DL1. He was routinely ranked in the top ten of many weekly and season-long rankings and even was a regular top 25 option in my own rankings. This was largely because the Clemson alum was near the top of the DL tackle standings in 2021 and 2022.
Unfortunately, Wilkins' tackle numbers have not stood out outside those two seasons. His takedowns in his last season with Miami were average, as were his first two NFL seasons, and this year looks to be the same as he joins a new scheme. Worse, Wilkins has never been a good source of turnovers, and his career high in sacks is nine.
Considering that Wilkins' fantasy value has largely depended on his tackle volume, the fact he's joined a new scheme and hasn't produced elite tackle numbers since 2022 is troubling. This year, he hasn't done anything to play over higher-upside players like Will Anderson Jr., Will McDonald IV, or Keion White.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Arden Key, DL, Tennessee Titans
Key is not a particularly attractive pass rusher most weeks, with most advanced metrics matching up with his underwhelming production. However, Key has played the second-most pass rush snaps on the Titans' defense, and he lines up almost exclusively over the left side of the offensive line.
This week is a nice matchup for Key and Tennessee's other pass rushers, who you're playing over Key if you have the option. The Dolphins' starting left tackle, Terron Armstead, is currently listed as questionable. Miami's pass blocking has been mid-tier and could be without their top pass blocker protecting a third-string quarterback.
Stream: Nick Herbig, DL/LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Herbig’s usage has been extremely limited, given the Steelers have two stud standup edges in T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. As a result, Herbig has not yet played more than 41% of the defensive snaps this season.
The Wisconsin alum has been extremely effective in his limited snaps, though. He ranks fourth in PFF's pass rush grades this season and in Pass Rush Win Rate. While the sample size is far too small to consider his numbers gospel, he did secure two sacks when he stepped in for an injured Alex Highsmith, and Highsmith may miss this week.
Now, the matchup for Herbig this week is less than ideal. We addressed why the Colts' extremely low-volume passing offense is bad for T.J. Watt. That's true for Herbig as well. However, if Herbig is a full-time starter this week, his metrics suggest he has a lot of upside if all goes well. Consider him a big-money lottery ticket.
Nick Herbig only rushed the passer 8 times against the Chargers but registered 2 sacks (3 pressures), including multiple wins vs. Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater.
All three came on the outside track with burst/bend but via different move sequences.
-Stab/Chop
-Double Swipe
-Ghost pic.twitter.com/7wRYd0X8Qf— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) September 25, 2024
Note: Reports indicate Alex Highsmith will be out for two weeks. This makes Herbig a really interesting streaming option. If Highsmith is healthy and plays, Herbig is far less interesting in anything but the deepest of leagues.
Fade: Pat Jones II, DL/LB, Minnesota Vikings
Jones is tied for third in the NFL in sacks, and he has nearly twice as many tackles as other pass rushers at the top of the rankings, like Will McDonald IV. That is likely why Jones is rostered in more leagues than McDonald and young high-upside pass rushers like Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner.
It's worth noting that Jones is a solid run defender, and his pass-rush film against a struggling 49ers front was solid. Unfortunately, he's playing less than half the snaps on a deep Vikings defense that rotates players often. His pass rush win rate and usage are also sub-optimal, meaning McDonald's and Latu are better weekly and season-long assets.
Fade: Yaya Diaby, DL/LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Diaby is still playing more than half of the Buccaneers’ snaps, which is very good for a pass rusher of his build and type. His advanced metrics also remain great, as he ranks third in Pass Rush Win Rate amongst edges with more than three snaps.
The problem is twofold for Diaby. First, his advanced metrics are not yet translating to fantasy production. Worse, he has the Eagles on tap this week. As we’ve addressed in this column many times, the Eagles’ offensive tackles have rated atop most pass rush metrics for three seasons running.
Thus, we still like Diaby as a buy-low defender who will eventually produce. This just isn’t the week to stream him in deep IDP leagues, if you have anyone else worth playing.
Defenders Worth Stashing
Von Miller, DL/LB, Buffalo Bills
Miller is not the sexiest add you can make. For example, Will McDonald IV is much younger and an ascending player who is rostered in too few leagues. McDonald is the 54th most rostered DL after waivers ran on Wednesday morning, despite being second in sacks and having a first-round NFL Draft pedigree. So, McDonald is an add over Miller.
However, Miller is available in nearly every IDP league. He is currently the 110th most rostered DL in fantasy despite his flashy name and the fact he is 12th in pass rush win rate and PFF’s pass rush grade amongst all edges. The former Super Bowl hero is also the 46th-highest-scoring DL this season, which puts his production way ahead of his roster rate.
Chad Muma, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Word is that Foyesade Oluokun will miss some time. When he came out of the game against Buffalo, it was Muma who stepped in. During that game, he played just 42% of the snaps but managed seven tackles. That's a solid sign of how he could be used and what he could do in games Oluokun misses.
The Jags used real draft capital to get Muma, drafting him in the third round of the 2022 Draft. That is noteworthy because he profiled as a potential NFL starter coming out of Wyoming.
Muma has played 76% or more of Jacksonville’s defensive snaps in four games. In those games he has averaged a solid 8.1 fantasy ppg. That production makes him a worthwhile streamer when Oluokun is out, and Muma is the 101st most rostered LB in fantasy, so he is probably available.
People talk crazy about Chad Muma but he had a hell of an offseason
He’s improved so much
Look at this hit 🔥 pic.twitter.com/E5GRfow4X9
— J-Villains Podcast (@JVillainsPod) August 26, 2024
Talanoa Hufanga, DB, San Francisco 49ers
You will see Hufanga pop up in this space until he is out for the season with an injury or his roster rate is in the top 25 at his position. Right now, the USC product is available in 96.9% of IDP leagues and is the 70th most rostered DB in fantasy. He is rostered in fewer leagues than Jeremy Chinn, Patrick Surtain II, and the still-injured DaRon Bland.
It makes little sense for a thumper like Hufanga to be rostered behind an injured Bland or low scorers like Chinn and Surtain. In his first game back, the 49er safety netted an impressive 91% of the defensive snaps and a decent 5.5 fantasy points. This usage shows how badly San Francisco needed Hufanga and is a good indicator he is healthy.
Hufanga has historically been a quality fantasy starter for the 49ers. He's a former All-Pro who plays about 1/3 of his snaps in the box, is a plus-run defender, a good blitzer, and can make plays in coverage. He is a widely available asset who, if he is truly healthy and his heavy usage continues, should inevitably finish as a top 15 fantasy DB this year.
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