IDP Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week 16 - Streamers, Fades, Matchups for Defensive Players

For many, there is no truer proof of character than our reaction to a fantasy playoff loss. Some react to the premature end of their season with class, offering congratulations to the victor. Some scream, curse, and complain. Then there are those of us who take the high road until a catastrophe like Week 15 happens and we can’t help but bemoan our bad luck.

As we’ve already stated, the Rams and 49ers began Week 15 with a bland showing for fantasy, but they weren’t the only slayers of playoff dreams. If Cooper Kupp and Brock Purdy performed seppuku on your roster, Tua Tagovailoa and his receivers helped cut off its head. Then, for posterity, the Seahawks, Raiders, and Falcons danced on its grave.

This spike in truly poor play sparked a sea of outrage from typically reserved analysts at some prominent outlets, such as ESPN and CBS. Multiple noteworthy analysts spent the past week repeatedly complaining about the brutal batch of losses and games. It was an almost refreshing look behind the curtain, proving all fantasy fans share the same volatile ride sometimes.

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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades

Stream: Denzel Ward, DB, Cleveland Browns

The Bengals remain one of the most high-volume pass offenses in the NFL over the past month. They rank third in pass attempts per game on the season and they were second, with 44.3 attempts per game, between Weeks 11 and 14.

Unfortunately, the Browns announced that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start at quarterback. That's bad news for Bengals defenders but also Browns players overall. DTR does not turn the ball over as much as Jameis Winston, but he does turn it over regularly, plus he doesn't move the chains like Winston does.

The risk of going with Ward is that the Browns cannot put up more than 10 points with DTR at quarterback, so the Bengals get a big lead early and run the clock out. However, if Thompson-Robinson moves the ball better than expected or Winston goes in at halftime, it could get competitive, and Cincy may have to throw a lot.

Ward is a risky play, but he’s viable if you need a boom week from your defender to win a playoff matchup you're favored to lose. He should see plenty of Ja’Marr Chase and the 12.8 targets that Chase has averaged since the end of October.

Stream: Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers

While his recent bout with injuries might explain why Cooper is available in a vast majority of leagues, the talent and production are just too good to ignore. Despite playing just 58% of Green Bay's snaps on Sunday night, Cooper managed an interception, a sack, and six solo tackles.

Edgerrin Cooper yesterday:

• 7 tackles
• 2 TFL
• 2 PBU
• 1 Sack
• 1 INT

A ⭐️ in the making. 💯

pic.twitter.com/uxeABGH9Fb

— GBP Daily - Rob Westerman lll (@GBPdaily) December 16, 2024

The Packers' coaching staff cannot ignore that kind of production, and Matt LaFleur’s recent comments suggest he won’t.

The Packers take on a leaky Saints offensive line this week, which is a positive matchup for all of Green Bay's linebackers. To make matters even better for Cooper, Quay Walker left the Seattle game early and is listed as questionable for this week. While Cooper is a great lottery ticket if Walker plays, he is a must-start if Walker is out.

Fade: Micah Parsons, DL/LB, Dallas Cowboys

It's virtually impossible to bench someone like Parsons in fantasy. He's among the most gifted pass rushers in the NFL and has been on a hot streak of late. Unfortunately, he has the toughest pass rush matchup in the entire league this week.

We told you to fade all pass rushers for the Chargers last week because they faced this staunch Tampa Bay offensive line. That advice was good, as the Chargers’ defense as a whole collected just one sack against the Buccaneers. Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Tuli Tuipulotu combined for zero sacks and 2.5 fantasy points in that game.

The Buccaneers' starting offensive tackles have combined for one sack allowed all season. The duo has surrendered just 21 total pressures, which translates to one pressure for every 43.7 times Baker Mayfield drops back. Or, in other words, they are allowing less than one pressure per game off the edge.

Every pass-blocking metric out there says you have to hesitate starting pass rushers against the Buccaneers, even those with Parsons’ talent.

Fade: Alontae Taylor, DB, New Orleans Saints

Taylor is DB10 in fantasy points per game this season, but he has seen a dip in fantasy production over the past three weeks. During that span, he has averaged just 4.2 fantasy points per game.

What’s worse for the Saints is his matchup with the Packers this week. Green Bay averages the second-fewest pass attempts per game. Against them, Devon Witherspoon totaled three points and Brian Branch totaled four. Only two DBs have scored more than seven fantasy points against the Packers since Week 9.

Given the matchup, it's tough to trust Taylor as a DB1 this week. You may have no better options, given his performance this year, but you should manage expectations and consider other options if you are looking for a safe floor.

Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades

Stream: Dre Greenlaw, LB, San Francisco 49ers

It's tough to trust Greenlaw in your fantasy playoffs, even in deeper formats. He just played his first game in nearly a year and left early with knee tightness. Neither of those are signs of dependability, nor is the fact his team is virtually eliminated from the playoffs and may begin taking extra precautions with injured players.

It only seems fitting we get a repeat of this from Dre Greenlaw this Sunday vs the Dolphinspic.twitter.com/uSkj9Fhbs0

— FoN9ne (@FoN9ne) December 18, 2024

With that said, Greenlaw was transcendent in his return. In a Rams v. 49ers matchup that saw very few people perform to expectations, Greenlaw and teammate Fred Warner delivered lights-out performances. In just 48% of the defensive snaps, Greenlaw collected eight tackles and looked visibly dominant as he moved all over the field.

While his knee tightness warrants watching, the team and beat reporters are labeling it a day-to-day injury. No one seems worried. With their former offensive coordinator (Mike McDaniel) on the sleight this week and concerns about LB depth after the De’Vondre Campbell drama, this could be a solid matchup for Greenlaw.

Dorian Williams, LB, Buffalo Bills (if Milano is out)

The Bills' linebacker rotation is relatively predictable. When Matt Milano plays, Williams does not. When Milano is out, Williams plays a lot.

This is noteworthy because Milano left the Detroit game early with a groin injury and is listed as questionable. If he is out, Williams is worth returning to the LB2 conversation. The Tulane product has nine or more tackles in eight of his 11 starts this year, plus he’s registered double-digit tackles in six.

While he doesn't produce many big plays, Williams was a consistent source of tackles until his playing time was threatened in Week 11. It feels safe to say he will be a low-end LB2 against the Patriots if Milano does not suit up.

Fade: Nate Hobbs, DB, Las Vegas Raiders

Hobbs is the 30^th most rostered DB in fantasy, and only 37 other DBs were started in more leagues last week. However, he is DB105 in fantasy points per game. He has exactly one forced turnover on the season, just one game with double-digit tackles, and five total PDs on the year.

While some may like Hobbs’ matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars where he'll face off with tight end Brenton Strange this week, Hobbs is still a risky bet. Remember that Hobbs played just 55% of Vegas’ snaps in a close game last week, while Strange had never seen more than six targets until Week 15. To further complicate matters, Strange plays 66% of his snaps inline or in the slot and saw 12 targets last week.

Note: some of Hobbs' usage and roster rate is explained by the number of teams already out of the playoffs and not active. However, his usage and roster rate both increased once he was activated last week.

Fade: Kyle Van Noy, DL/LB, Baltimore Ravens

Van Noy is the fifth-most added DL in fantasy over the past ten days. He is now the 47^th most rostered DL in fantasy and is the 40^th most started. While a player’s start and sit rates can be clouded by a dip in activity from managers out of the playoffs, the high rate at which teams are adding the BYU alum suggests faith and interest in him is up.

While Pittsburgh's pass-blocking metrics are bad on paper, they have improved recently. In his past three games, Russell Wilson has taken just 1.6 sacks per game. His opponents in that span included reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, current NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson, and a dominant Eagles pass defense.

Worse for fantasy managers is Van Noy's inconsistent usage this season. The former Patriot failed to top 60% of Baltimore's defensive snaps in his past two games. His pass rush numbers aren’t stellar either. Van Noy has just three total sacks since Week 4, he ranks 42^nd in pass rush grade and sits 63^rd in pass rush win rate this season.

Defenders Worth Stashing

Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers

We are using Cooper in two different sections of this column, just to get our point across. He is a tremendous talent who received clear and vocal accolades from his head coach after a tremendous showing last weekend. He was dominant in limited snaps against Seattle and should be in line for more this weekend.

As noted above, Cooper’s stock is up, and it could shoot through the roof if Quay Walker doesn't play this week. Despite that, Cooper is available in 97% of IDP leagues and is the 61^st most rostered LB since recent waiver runs. Even the banished De’Vondre Campbell is rostered in more leagues, and that is after waivers ran this week.

Nolan Smith, DL, Philadelphia Eagles

Smith remains on this list because his roster rate only increased 0.3% in the past week. He is still just the 58^th most rostered DL despite a sharp spike in playing time and production since Brandon Graham went down.

The Georgia product also has a positive matchup this week, making him a fine DL2 streamer. The Commanders have allowed the 11^th most sacks in the league this year, but that figure has spiked in recent weeks. Washington has allowed the second most sacks in the NFL in their past three games.

Tykee Smith, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 114^th most rostered DB in fantasy, Smith sits comfortably within our top 50 rankings. While his production has dipped since his injury, Smith still sees most of the defensive snaps for Tampa Bay. Even better, his team is frequently involved in high-scoring shootouts that require opponents to throw a lot.

Tykee Smith

5 tackles
1 INT
2 PDs
1 Forced Fumble pic.twitter.com/b07uAaVt0o

— 704 Dawg (@FSFRecruits) October 13, 2024

Dallas runs the fifth most offensive plays and the second most pass attempts per game. While those numbers are down slightly with Cooper Rush at the helm, this is still a favorable matchup for opposing defensive backs.

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