IDP Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week 13 - Streamers, Fades, Matchups for Defensive Players

Thanksgiving is the most self-explanatory holiday in existence. Its very purpose is in the title. You are giving thanks, hence Thanksgiving. However, there is a small side effect that comes with the smorgasbord of Thursday football gifted to us on our nation’s day of gorging. This side effect has a sneaky impact on the NFL schedule that some are not so thankful for.

Don't get us wrong, most sports fans are thankful to have football games on Turkey Day. It's something to watch for those who are woefully unskilled in the kitchen and have zero interest in watching giant balloons being marched through downtown New York City. However, the growing slate of Thanksgiving games also has an unintended impact.

Because the NFL keeps growing its Thanksgiving slate, and now populates Black Friday, the league is left with a limited number of contests to fill this Sunday and Monday. As a result, the NFL had to designate zero byes in Week 13. This decision likely led to the overflow of byes we are now stuck with in Weeks 12 and 14, leaving fantasy players with a big bill for Thanksgiving.

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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades

Stream: Will McDonald IV, DL/LB, New York Jets

McDonald hasn't done anything worth your fantasy faith in four games, making him droppable in many leagues. He is also on a team and defense that seems checked out, so there are reasons to continue fading him. However, he has a very good matchup this week, which might help him overcome his recent woes.

Seattle is allowing the fourth-most sacks per game in the NFL. It is also attempting the fifth-most passes. Even better, Geno Smith likes to extend plays and hold onto the ball, looking for opportunities to throw or run. All of that is a recipe for a fantasy recovery if you're a talented defensive end with a recent run of bad luck/performances.

Stream: Terrel Bernard, LB, Buffalo Bills

Despite being a well-known and obvious name in most IDP circles, Bernard is just the 23rd-most-rostered LB in fantasy. That means he is likely on the waiver wire in many shallow or casual IDP leagues.

While advanced metrics are not high on Bernard’s performance in Week 11, the film tells another story. The star linebacker made several tremendous plays in coverage against the Chiefs, sealing the game late. He also remains a strong run defender and is a better pass-rusher than Dorian Williams.

terrel bernard is SO damn good pic.twitter.com/olchqvpAr6

— Jenna Cottrell (@JennaCottrell) November 18, 2024

As we’ve stated in the past, Matt Milano could see the field as early as this week. When he does, Bernard is more likely to retain his every-down role than Williams is. Bernard also has a solid matchup this week with a 49ers offense that averages the 10th-most rush attempts per game and funnels much of its passes through running backs and tight ends.

Fade: Nick Bolton, LB, Kansas City Chiefs

The 15th-most-rostered LB in fantasy, Bolton falls outside of our LB2 tier this week.

While the Raiders are not a terrible matchup for linebackers, given their run-oriented approach and reliance on short throws to running backs and Brock Bowers, Bolton simply isn’t an exciting play. He has just one double-digit tackle game this season, zero forced turnovers, and he’s LB48 in fantasy points per game this season.

In a week where no teams are on bye, shallow league managers do not have to settle for Bolton. The matchup is fine, though possibly low volume. The player is solid, too. He just lacks a big-play upside, and his tackle totals are disappointing.

Quay Walker, Nakobe Dean, Logan Wilson, and Terrel Bernard are all rostered and started in fewer fantasy leagues than Bolton. All are better plays this week and beyond.

Fade: Jonathan Greenard, DL/LB, Minnesota Vikings

Greenard is tied for the sixth-most sacks in the NFL this season, and he is DL8 in fantasy points per game. So, it's tough to fade him. The matchup isn't great this week, though.

The Cardinals pass-blocking unit grades fourth best in the NFL this season. Worse, their starting offensive tackles have surrendered a total of just 27 quarterback pressures and seven sacks on the season. Throw in Kyler Murray's mobility, and it's easy to see why Arizona has allowed the fifth-fewest sacks per game in the NFL.

Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades

Stream: Josh Paschal, DL, Detroit Lions

There isn’t much that’s sexy about Paschal’s fantasy resume this season, as he’s managed just two sacks and 18 tackles all year. However, his defensive snap rate has been consistently over 80% since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury, and he’s managed a sack or multiple pressures in four of those five games.

Now, Paschal faces a Bears offense that is giving up sacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL. While Chicago’s offense has improved since firing Shane Waldron, with Caleb Williams shortening the time he holds the ball and some key blockers returning, Williams has still taken nine sacks in the two weeks since Waldron’s termination.

Stream: Patrick Surtain II, DB, Denver Broncos

By most accounts, Surtain II is the best coverage corner in the NFL. It’s that fact that drops him down most fantasy boards. Opposing offenses often avoid the best coverage guys in the league, and Surtain frequently gets that treatment.

One reason to boost the All-Pro this week is his matchup with Cleveland. Since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback, the Browns are averaging the third-most pass attempts per game. If you remove their blizzard game against Pittsburgh, which saw both teams slow things down dramatically, the Browns are second in pass attempts with Winston.

Patrick Surtain II is that dude. 6’2 200+ pound corners shouldn’t be able to transition like this. pic.twitter.com/nCfg3fzMYM

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 2, 2022

What's even better is that Winston continues to be a "gunslinger" and a risk-taker. He has not historically shied away from tough matchups or strong corners. If he thinks he can force a throw-in and move the ball, he will do it. That significantly increases the odds that Surtain will see more volume and a turnover this week.

Fade: Chop Robinson, DL/LB, Miami Dolphins

Robinson was a streamer for us last week. In recommending him, we noted his strong film, improving pressure rate in recent weeks, and a strong matchup against New England. If you did plug Robinson into your lineup, it worked out, too. He notched career highs in sacks, tackles, and pass deflections.

Unfortunately, Robinson's hot streak could be short-lived as he comes up against a strong Green Bay front. The Packers are allowing the third-fewest sacks per game this season, their pass-blocking is rated first in the NFL, and they allow just 3.4 quarterback pressures off the edge per game. It's arguably the worst pass-rusher matchup in the league.

Note, if Rasheed Walker misses this game, it would change Robinson’s prospects somewhat. Walker was a limited participant in practice and is the best pass-blocker on Green Bay’s edge. It looks like he’s likely to play, but if he doesn’t, it means an uptick in fantasy potential for Miami’s edge-rushers.

Fade: Charvarius Ward, DB, San Francisco 49ers

Ward led the NFL in pass deflections last year and was consistently ranked as a DB2 option early this season. That would partially explain why he remains the 40th-most-rostered DB in fantasy, even though he hasn't played in San Francisco's past three games and remains questionable.

While we are not advocating you drop Ward, we warn against relying on him this week. If he plays, the veteran has a rough matchup with a Bills offense with no clear outside target to shadow. Buffalo’s top receiver plays in the slot, where Ward rarely goes. Plus, Buffalo averages just the 19th-most pass attempts per game.

Defenders Worth Stashing

Tykee Smith, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Smith has been hurt for several weeks, which depresses his value and roster rate. However, he is the 110th-most-rostered DB in fantasy … despite the fact he is DB20 in fantasy points per game.

The injury to Jordan Whitehead should only cement Smith’s role and playing time in this defense once he returns. If you can afford to stash him on your IR or a deep bench, he’s a good value available in nearly every IDP league.

Malik Harrison, LB, Baltimore Ravens

We are ranking the Ravens as if Roquan Smith will play this weekend. That means Harrison isn’t a top-50 option for us. However, Smith is still questionable to play in Week 13. If the All-Pro is out, we expect Harrison to become a valuable streamer this week.

Malik Harrison got the defense's highest @PFF grade vs. the Chargers. 💪 pic.twitter.com/yBMzchiA5G

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) November 26, 2024

With Smith out last week, Harrison's playing time nearly doubled. In that increased role, the Ohio State alum made several big plays and secured 13 total tackles. Another double-digit tackle week is very possible if he fills in for Smith against Philadelphia, whose offense has the highest rushing volume in the NFL.

Nolan Smith, DL/LB, Philadelphia Eagles

Smith was a twitchy project coming out of Georgia with elite tools but had a questionable production and scheme fit in Philly. I was among those who were skeptical that the undersized but uber-athletic edge could become a consistent producer in the pros.

With that said, Brandon Graham is now lost to injury. That absence could open up more opportunities for Smith. The second-year speedster has the physical ability to get after the quarterback, and he is on an elite defensive unit that could make his job easier if he gets real playing time on a regular basis.

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