IDP Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 5

I noticed the beginning of a trend last week when several friends moved to drop highly rated defenders for one of my Gambles. It didn't happen just once, but multiple times. Each time these friends would drop someone I had rated highly just to stream one of my Gambles. It is an act I find very flattering, as it proves SOMEONE actually reads my columns. However, it also shows a misunderstanding about my Gambles and Folds.

My Weekly Gambles highlight defenders who are sparsely rostered in IDP leagues but have the potential for big statistics, thanks to a good matchup/opportunity. Our Gambles are not always players you should start over the 30 or 40 defenders ranked ahead of them. It simply means our Gambles could far outperform current expectations and are worth streaming in deeper formats or in situations where you have a tough fantasy opponent and need to bet on a boom from a risky defender.

The same goes for our Folds. Those players aren't guaranteed to bust. They are simply players we expect to perform well below expectations. We aim our Folds and Gambles at readily available players who could have relevance in many formats. Please enjoy these recommendations, and learn what you can, but don't ignore our rankings either…. And with that, we get to our rankings. As always, remember these ranks are primarily based on my Casual IDP Scoring system.

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Top Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Gamble(s) of the Week: Baron Browning, Denver Broncos

With Randy Gregory on IR, there are premium pass-rushing snaps available in Denver. While we prefer Nik Bonitto for that position in the short and long term, Denver seems to strongly prefer Browning at this stage. Their love of Browning shows in the snaps, as Bonitto's season high in defensive snaps is nine, while Browning hit a season-high of 43 when Gregory went down on Sunday.

Browning (and possibly Bonitto in very, very deep leagues) has a good matchup against the Colts this week. Indy has given up 15 sacks on the season and sits seventh-worst in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate. They’ve allowed 18 pressures off the edge, and they could now be missing Jonathan Taylor on Thursday. Look for Denver’s secondary to blanket Michael Pittman Jr. with Patrick Surtain II, giving Denver edges extra time to get after Matt Ryan.

DL Fold(s) of the Week: Jadeveon Clowney, Cleveland Browns

Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett may not play again this week, but if they do, they have a tougher matchup than many may think. While the loss of Rashawn Slater was huge for the Chargers, the team's current starting offensive tackles allow pressure on just 3% of their pass-blocking snaps. Los Angeles' line also ranks first in Adjusted Sack Rate, despite serious holes at both guard spots.

While the sample size is limited for this new look Chargers offensive line, they are taking care of business up to this date. That could spell problems for two Browns edge rushers coming off of injuries, especially when you factor in Justin Herbert's ability to quickly get rid of the ball. The dump-off options of Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett only add to the edge rushers' difficulty against this team. For now, it appears we were premature in downgrading this line without Slater.

Top Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Gamble(s) of the Week: Blake Martinez, Las Vegas Raiders

Martinez makes our radar because he was signed to the Raiders practice squad on Tuesday, approximately 48 hours after Denzel Perryman was diagnosed with a concussion. The signing of Martinez could be nothing, or it could be a sign Perryman isn't playing this week. We should know more soon, but there's an outside chance Martinez is activated to the active roster, which could mean he takes over for Jayon Brown, who has graded poorly in every metric PFF follows this season.

Considering the unknowns about who is starting at LB for the Raiders this week, Martinez is worth a speculative add in deeper formats. He is typically viewed as a sure tackler, which Brown is not, averaging 8.5 tackles per game for his career. There is immense risk plugging him into your lineups sight-unseen, but Martinez offers upside for however long Perryman is out if the former Giant can quickly earn a starting job.

LB Fold(s) of the Week: Quincy Williams, New York Jets

It’s never easy picking our LB folds of the week since most of the ‘backers you’re thinking of playing have some value. That’s why we have to lean even more into matchups than usual with these. Thus, Williams draws the short straw this week as a typical LB3 option with one of the worst matchups of the week for players in his tier.

The Dolphins enter this week as the sixth most pass-oriented offense in the NFL. They are also running the fourth-fewest offensive plays in the league through four games. While we could see their script change with Teddy Bridgewater under center, Teddy played just 61% of the Dolphins' plays and threw 23 times in a competitive game last week. He also has the deepest Air Yards Per Attempt of his career with Miami.

With the Dolphins’ two best offensive weapons playing on the perimeter and no clear workhorse back in the backfield, we expect Miami will remain a low-volume offense that relies on the pass. Bridgewater seems to focus particularly hard on the speedy Tyreek Hill in this system, and Jets linebackers won’t spend time on Hill or Jaylen Waddle. That could limit their upside this week.

Top Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Gamble(s) of the Week: Jaylen Watson, Kansas City Chiefs

Watson won’t shadow Davante Adams, but he does spend almost all of his time on the left side of the field. Adams spends approximately 44% of his time in that spot, meaning plenty of opportunities for Watson should come in this matchup. It helps that Mack Hollins and Darren Waller will fill that spot when Adams doesn’t, meaning Watson should see opportunities even without Adams. With the Chiefs expected to go up early, Watson is worth a flyer in deeper formats.

DB Fold(s) of the Week: Jeff Okudah, Detroit Lions

Despite playing the equivalent of a full game with Bailey Zappe under center, including overtime, the Patriots ran 39 offensive plays and attempted only 15 passes with the rookie on the field. For context, the team with the fewest offensive plays per game in the NFL is the Panthers at 53.9. While this sample size is incredibly small, it shouldn't surprise anyone if Bill Belichick wants to repeat this game plan since it helped take Aaron Rodgers to overtime.

What’s worse for Jeff Okudah managers is that Zappe is a relatively cautious and conservative passer with no true #1 receiver. With no one to shadow and an extremely careful offense on tap, Okudah could see very limited fantasy opportunities. That means the Ohio State product is likely a big play-dependent play this week, which is worrisome when you consider he has just one forced turnover and four tackles for loss in his career.

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