IDP Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16

In the NFL, safety should come first. Player health is incredibly important, especially cognitive and mental health. So, it's the right decision whenever a team follows caution and rules a player out for head injuries or otherwise. The fact that teams are doing so more often does significantly complicate fantasy matchups, though. This is why people who claim "fantasy is just luck" finally have data to prove their point. While there's still skill to this game, the sheer number of injuries is giving luck more and more sway.

For proof of this concept, look at the state of the QB position this year. The 49ers and Cardinals both turned to their third-string options this week, and San Francisco briefly fielded their fourth-stringer last Sunday. The Dolphins also started a third-stringer at points this year, while at least 16 different starting quarterbacks have missed at least one game due to injury. This doesn't just thin the herd at quarterback and impact the value of pass catchers, either. This outcome impacts projections for defenders.

Most IDP managers will lick their chops if they see a third-string passer and will target defenders going against them. Not all situations are equal, though. For example, Brock Purdy has been incredibly efficient, surrendering just four total sacks and one interception across nearly three full games as a starter. His defense and scheme keep him safe, but there are backups worth targeting. Skylar Thompson and Trace McSorley are prime examples. McSorley, in particular, would be a generous opponent if he starts against Tampa.

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Top Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Gamble(s) of the Week: Leonard Floyd, Los Angeles Rams

The Denver Broncos have been quietly rising in the sacks allowed category, culminating in a nasty seven-sack day for Brett Rypien against an average Arizona Cardinals pass rush. Denver currently ranks fourth-worst in Adjusted Sack Rate and is tied for the most sacks allowed in the NFL. That is an attractive matchup for Floyd, who has recently improved and is currently the Rams' top pass rusher.

DL Fold(s) of the Week: J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals

It’s dangerous to bet against one of the best defenders of this century, but the Buccaneers are a bad matchup for the elder Watt brother. While J.J. is coming off a three-sack game that will make many want to start him, Tom Brady remains one of the hardest QBs to sack in the NFL. In fact, Brady is taking fewer sacks without Tristan Wirfs (two in three games) than he was with him.

The reason Brady is taking fewer sacks has nothing to do with Wirfs. Rather, Brady is tossing more dangerous passes to avoid pressure. That said, you don't care why the GOAT is hard to sack. You just care that he is. We are fading Watt to a DL4 this week, given the matchup.

Top Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Gamble(s) of the Week: Troy Andersen, Atlanta Falcons

Mykal Walker has perennially put up LB2-quality fantasy numbers this year. Still, he was replaced by Troy Andersen last week, and Atlanta's Week 16 starting lineup has the rookie starting over Walker again. That means a role that has been very favorable to fantasy managers is now being filled by a talented do-it-all rookie who we considered a preseason sleeper.

In the two games Andersen has started for the Falcons, he's averaged 10 tackles per game. Now, the Montana State alum gets a Baltimore offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in rush percentage, heavily involves its tight ends, and should field a quarterback who's been injured for several weeks. This has the makings of a big week for Andersen and Rashaan Evans, but only the rookie is readily available in most leagues.

LB Fold(s) of the Week: Mykal Walker, Atlanta Falcons

Calling Walker a “Fold” may seem obvious, given his replacement is our LB Gamble this week. However, nominating Walker in this spot is necessary since he is currently the 17th-most rostered LB in IDP leagues and the 29th-most started.

This formerly reliable fantasy starter has no business being on rosters, let alone in lineups, when he played just 24% of the snaps last weekend. Despite being healthy, the Fresno State product wasn't in Atlanta's starting lineup last week, and he isn't listed as a starter this week, either. While we've seen players go through this and come out fantasy relevant anyways, you can't start an NFL backup in your fantasy playoffs.

Top Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Gamble(s) of the Week: Carlton Davis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Davis was started in fewer than 5% of IDP leagues last week, but he put together a tremendous showing against Ja’Marr Chase anyways. Now, Davis should be considered a good bet to shadow DeAndre Hopkins, who has seen double-digit targets in six of eight games this year.

Hopkins may have Trace McSorley throwing him the ball, leading to plenty of risky and off-target throws. That should play into Davis' strengths, allowing for multiple opportunities for a deflection or interception. There's a risk here if Arizona has Colt McCoy back, or they surprise us all by establishing the run despite Tampa stacking the box, but the upside is tremendous. Davis is the definition of a high-upside gamble this week.

DB Fold(s) of the Week: Jerry Jacobs, Detroit Lions

Jacobs has been a popular sleeper lately, with a PD in five straight games and 6+ tackles in three of his five starts. There's always the possibility he nabs one of those errant Sam Darnold throws, too. So, we can't blame people in deeper leagues if they take a flyer on him this week after he notched his first interception against the Jets.

We are fading Jacobs because Carolina is averaging just 22 pass attempts per game with Sam Darnold under center, and Darnold has zero interceptions in those three games. When Darnold does throw, 23% of those targets go to D.J. Moore, and another 15% have been throwaways. Darnold is going out of his way to avoid his usual messy decisions right now, and it's unlikely the Lions' pass rush can force one that Pittsburgh couldn't.

Of course, it’s always possible the Lions’ high-flying offense could run up the score on a Carolina defense that ranks 15^th in scoring. That could force Darnold to throw more and make worse decisions. There's also the chance Jacobs sees extremely limited fantasy opportunities against a low-volume pass attack. That risk keeps him out of our rankings this week.

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