IDP Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 14

According to a study done in 2019 by Statista, Daily Fantasy Football generated $2.91 billion in revenue in 2019. A more recent article from Forbes estimates that 32 million Americans play fantasy football every year, spending an average of $70 billion on direct expenditures (tournament fees, dues, etc.) and indirect expenditures (tv packages, research, etc.) annually. In other words, fantasy football brings millions of viewers and billions in revenue to the NFL and its partners.

I mention these facts because the NFL’s leadership doesn’t seem to even acknowledge the fantasy managers who support them. While NFL players and coaches shouldn’t care about our fantasy teams, even if we do pay a lot of their bloated salaries, Roger Goodell and the owners should. How many of Sunday Ticket's nearly two million paying subscribers would subscribe if fantasy wasn't a factor? And how many would watch the Panthers vs. Falcons on Thursday night if it weren't for fantasy? So why the disinterest in us?

A recent example of this is the NFL’s move to set bye weeks in Weeks 13 and 14. As of 2018, the NFL typically didn’t set byes past Week 12. That allowed fantasy commissioners to get creative, setting 10-team playoff schedules or allowing for two-week playoff rounds. It was a nice luxury that allowed commissioners to customize their league in various ways. Sadly, the Week 14 byes change that, forcing more conformity and unknowns into our playoff picture. It's unlikely we will ever get that creativity back, and that's sad.

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Top Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Gamble(s) of the Week: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders

We've been fading Chandler Jones since the spring, so it is no surprise that he ranks 65^th amongst defensive linemen in quarterback pressures this season. Before this past Sunday's resurgent performance against the Chargers, Jones had just a half-sack all season, and he still has zero forced turnovers and just one pass deflection. In short, the possible Hall of Famer’s big performance last weekend feels more like a blip than a full return.

That said, Jones is getting his third wind at the right time with the Rams next on deck. The reigning Super Bowl champs were giving up 12 pressures per game in their last three games before Sunday, and against Seattle, they gave up seven sacks. We predicted a big game for Uchenna Nwosu last week, and he delivered. The Rams are bad enough to offer Jones a similar boom.

DL Fold(s) of the Week: Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles

A hefty 77% of Haason Reddick's snaps come on the left side of the line, where Andrew Thomas plays. Thomas is PFF's fourth-highest-graded pass-blocker this season. His dominance was clear on tape as well, when Washington played Montez Sweat on the left side an uncharacteristic 40% of the time and Thomas shut him down.

The former top-five pick allows pressure on just 2.7% of his pass-blocking sets, and he's allowed two sacks on the season. That's a scary prospect for Reddick if he maintains his usual usage. Other Eagles pass rushers get a bump in our projections this week, including last week's Gamble of the week, Josh Sweat, but Reddick is a fold given his roster and start percentages.

Top Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Gamble(s) of the Week: Germaine Pratt, Cincinnati Bengals

Pratt has at least eight tackles in every game where an opposing offense has run the ball 40% or more of the time. This week, he faces a Cleveland Browns offense that will likely look to run the ball on 50% of their snaps. Last week showed there is more rust on Deshaun Watson's arm than many of us expected, so look for Cleveland to try and control the clock while keeping Joe Burrow on the sideline. If that happens, Pratt has LB2 upside, though the risk of an aerial assault is there.

LB Fold(s) of the Week: Leighton Vander Esch, Dallas Cowboys

In a week with six teams on bye, it’s tough to find an LB you must bench. That’s especially true when each team on bye rosters at least one top-50 fantasy LB. So, the closest we could come to an LB you might start but should fold is Vander Esch.

On paper, the Boise State product has a favorable matchup against a Texans offense that loves to run. The problem is, we’ve seen Vander Esch disappoint in this sort of favorable matchup before. The Colts offered a short passing game and a run-oriented offense last week, but the Cowboys got out to a big lead that forced the Colts to throw and allowed Dallas to sit their starters. Something similar could happen against a Houston offense running the fourth-fewest plays in the NFL.

Top Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Gamble(s) of the Week: Jimmie Ward, San Francisco 49ers

Ward has played 75.8% of his plays in the slot this season, where Chris Godwin lines up 66% of the time. Godwin is ninth in the NFL in targets per game, but he is second over the past seven weeks. With Ward available in almost every IDP league, this week's opportunity share could be worth a streaming gamble, even in relatively shallow leagues.

DB Fold(s) of the Week: Tyson Williams & Darious Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars

No offense playing in Week 14 averages fewer pass attempts per game than the Titans. Tennessee’s top deep threat and outside playmaker (Treylon Burks) is also questionable to play this week. In games without Burks on the field, Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine combined to average a meager 2.75 targets per game. In games without Burks and without Malik Willis throwing to them, those two averaged 8.5 combined targets.

While it's a small sample size, the Titans have not showered their outside receivers with targets, with or without Burks. Rather, they spread the ball and run it as much as possible. With Burks out, they appear to double down on that philosophy. That plan should be infinitely plausible against an inconsistent Jaguars offense. Consider the Jags' corners to be low-floor plays this week.

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